2) Decision-making Under Conditions of Risk æ In some situations, a manager is able to estimate the probability that certain variables could occur. The ability to estimate may be due to experience, incomplete, but reliable information, or, in some cases, an accurate report. When estimates are made, a degree of risk is involved, but some amount of information about the situation is available. The situation requires estimating the probability that one or more known variables might influence the decision being made. If the basis for the decision is stated in terms of maximizing results, for example, service levels the decision-maker would select the alternative, that produces the best result. However, if the basis for the decision is stated in terms of minimizing the outcome, for example, costs, the decision-maker would select the alternative that minimizes the results.
3) Decision-making Under Conditions of Uncertainty æ A condition of uncertainty exists when a manager is faced with making a decision with no historical data concerning the variables and/or unknowns and their probability of occurrence. In these circumstances, the manager can decide to:
a) Maximize the possible results;
b) Minimize the results;
c) Maximize the results that are the minimum possible under the circumstances;
d) Minimize the maximum possible results; or
e) Avoid or delay the decision.
Types of Decisions
There are three types of decisions in disaster management: 1) routine; 2) non-routine; and 3) technically guided.
1) Routine (or programmed) æ If a problem or situation occurs often, a routine procedure usually is developed for solving it. Thus, decisions are routine if they are repetitive and a specific procedure has been developed for handling them. Examples would be purchasing relief supplies, handling personnel matters, and dealing with problems that were anticipated. Routine decisions normally are guided by policies, guidelines, or procedures.
2) Non-Routine (non-programmed) æ When problems are broad, novel, and unanticipated, they require decisions that have not been covered in the planning by the organization. That is, they have not been routine. Consequently, there is no established procedure for handling the problem.
3) Technically-guided æ In many cases, determination of which course of action to choose is guided by technical factors beyond the control of the manager. For example, flood victims often demand that relief agencies provide "flood-proof" houses. Unfortunately, flooding is a site problem, not a structural one. Therefore, a decision not to provide housing assistance on the same site would be guided by technical, not humanitarian considerations.
The Process of Decision-making
The starting point in any analysis of decision-making involves a confirmation of whether a decision needs to be made. The first step is to identify the problem and the kinds of decisions required to solve this problem. However, before making a decision, the manager develops a number of possible alternatives (or potential solutions to the problem) and considers the potential results and possible consequences (pros and cons) of each.
Up to this point, the process is relatively simple; however, choosing the best alternative is complicated. In business, there are various models for decision-making that help managers select the best course of action with the least risk. However, for the disaster manager, the tools are limited. The setting of policies, goals, and objectives, as described in Lesson 2 (Volume 13;2-4: page 63-77), can help narrow the choices and provide a framework for decision-making. When a decision needs to be made, the manager reviews each alternative that he/she has selected to determine if it is consistent with the organizational objectives and the overall policy, and if it will further the operational goals and objective of the program and/or organization.
If a policy is established or a specific rule or procedure is developed to guide decisions, it will not be necessary to develop and evaluate alternatives each time a problem arises. However, over time, the policies must be reviewed and updated.
Most decisions that managers must make can be structured, and repetitive problems in their daily operations can be handled with policies and procedures or according to technical feasibility. These decisions should be treated as routine without expending unnecessary resources or time on them. It is non-routine decisions that are the concern of the disaster manager, since this type of decision most likely will be encountered in an emergency. These deal with unknowns and, therefore, can have a potentially greater negative impact if handled improperly.
Non-routine decisions traditionally have been handled by general problem-solving processes, judgment, intuition, and creativity. In pyramidal organizations, during non-crisis situations, non-routine decisions usually are the concern of top level management, while, in general, middle-level and field-level managers make routine decisions. The result is that decision-making is cumbersome, time consuming, and not as effective or timely as is decision-making in organizations where authority is shared at the field level. In these organizations, both routine and non-routine decisions are made at all levels.
Disasters demand that non-routine decisions be made at all levels, especially at field-level management. Field-level managers most often deal with non-routine decisions in emergencies. Thus, to improve the performance of relief operations, it is necessary to improve the non-routine decision-making capabilities of field-level managers.
Two ways to improve decision-making under these circumstances are to: 1) Structure the decision-making process; 2) Provide a policy framework against which to measure choices.
Steps in Decision-making
All decisions require deliberate analysis. In order to make decisions under non-routine, emergency circumstances, the following steps should be taken:
Step 1. Define the problem and the decision to be made. Clarify the problem and try to eliminate irrelevant or unnecessary issues.
Step 2. Gather and organize all the information about the problem. Put all the information in a logical form and sequence.
Step 3. Extract the relevant information.
Step 4. Evaluate the information. Assess the quality and accuracy of the information and estimate the unknowns and variables that may influence the outcome of the decision.
Step 5. Identify alternatives. Determine the alternatives and identify as many of the pros and cons and the possible outcomes of each.
Step 6. Make the decision. Pick the best (most positive) alternative.
Once a decision has been made, it should be adhered to. Hesitation or wavering fosters uncertainty and lack of confidence in the decision-maker, and can reduce the effectiveness of the decision.
