What is the probable truth behind Homer's story of the Trojan War?

Several settlements were found at the site. They are numbered from Troy I to Troy IX.

Schliemann sought and discovered the site of the historical Troy, and then went on to uncover Mycenae and Tiryns. However, prior to Schliemann bursting onto the scene, people believed that the story of Troy was nothing more than a myth or legend. Schliemann discovered Troy II but after dating the site, it was discovered that it was 1000 years to early.

The excavations at Hisarlik revealed nine distinct settlements in all, each built upon the remains of the previous. Troy I is at least 5000 years old. Troy II existed during the early Bronze Age. Schliemann discovered a great treasure among the ruins of this Troy. This led him to believe this was the Troy of Homer, but he was mistaken. Troy III-V covers the period roughly from 2200 B.C. to 1750 B.C. Troy VI flourished between 1750 B.C.-1300 B.C. A large fortress, huge walls, and guard towers were found. Blegen believed this Troy was destroyed by a massive earthquake. Dörpfeld mistakenly believed this Troy to be Homer's Troy.

Troy VII was discovered to be two different settlements. To distinguish between the two, they are known as Troy VII A and Troy VII B. Troy VII A was built soon after the destruction of Troy VI and differs little. It was destroyed by fire around 1200 B.C., which agrees with the traditional date for the destruction of Homer's Troy around 1184 B.C. This is the Troy that most believe to be the Troy from the Trojan War. Troy VIII contains remains of Greek villages which date from 1100 B.C. to 100 B.C. Troy IX was a Roman settlement. It lasted until 500 A.D.

After all the digging and excavating, it is most probable that the ‘real’ Troy is that of VII A and is the site that most believe to be the Troy from the Trojan War described in Homer’s Iliad.