Australia Should Adopt the Recommendations of the Kyoto Protocol

The issue of whether or not Australia should adopt the Kyoto Protocol and limit its greenhouse gas emissions to 108% of its 1990 levels has been widely debated in our community. It is an important issue because it concerns the emission of an excess amount of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, due to anthropogenic activities. These gases have contributed to the effects of global warming by retaining a surplus amount of the sun’s radiation in the atmosphere. This essay will consider the arguments both for and against Australia embracing the Protocol, and will conclude with a recommendation on whether or not the Protocol should be ratified by the Australian Government.

In 1997, 160 countries adopted the Kyoto Protocol in an attempt to reduce the effects of global warming, with the long-term aims of environmental protection and sustained economic growth in mind. The Protocol requires 38 developed countries (known as the Annex B) to collectively reduce 5.2% of the worlds’ 1990 greenhouse gas emissions levels by 2008 – 2012, but does not set any restrictions on developing countries. Each developed country was set various legally binding targets in regard to how they produce and use energy, levels of pollution and degrees of access to clean technology. Unlike most Annex B parties, which are required to reduce their emissions by up to 10%, Australia was given a generous target of only limiting its emissions to an 8% growth of its 1990 levels.

Although it is difficult to pinpoint the exact links between global warming and climatic change, there is little dispute that it is making matters worse. Professor Karoly, a co-author of the report, “Global Warming Contributes to Australia’s Worst Drought”, argues that, "The higher temperatures experienced throughout Australia last year are part of a national warming trend over the past 50 years which cannot be explained by natural climate variability alone. Most of this warming is likely due to the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activity." Therefore, if Australia does not adopt the Protocol’s recommendations, it faces drastic climatic change, which may affect the agricultural, and tourism industries, as well as the environment.

Recent studies conducted by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO asserts that increases in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the air are directly linked to the recent rises in sea levels and temperatures. Scientists from the CSIRO and the Australian National University also predict a 9 -55cm rise in sea levels by 2070, and a 0.5 – 1.5oC climb in current temperatures by 2030. This is three times faster than the 0.8oC rise, which has occurred over the past 90 years. It is thus in Australia’s best interests to embrace the Protocol’s recommendations, as higher temperatures ...

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Excess greenhouse gases also leads to increases in the number of hot days and subsequently decreases wheat quality and yields from horticultural crops that require the winter chill for fruit-set. Higher sea levels could also bring about the loss of 20% of Australia’s coastal wetlands by 2080 and amplify the severity and frequency of extreme events such as droughts, floods and storm surges along the coast, costing the country millions of dollars in damages, lost productivity and reconstruction. These factors will also negatively impact the domestic and international tourism industries, which play major roles in the Australian economy. (“An Issue That's Hotting Up” 12-04-2002, p 49.)

Nonetheless, Australia’s forestry industry, and pockets of natural vegetation, can help reduce the nation’s emissions by up to 5%. These pockets of vegetation are known as ‘carbon sinks’. By further developing these ‘sinks’ Australia could increase resource management by encouraging the integration of commercial tree growing into farming systems. If Australia were able to reduce its emissions to less than 108%, say 90%, by using its carbon sinks effectively, then it can sell the spare 18% leeway to another country that is over its Protocol limit, thereby generating national income in the form of carbon credits. (The National Greenhouse Strategy 1998:97-99)

Apart from the environmental benefits of meeting the 108% target, the Kyoto Protocol cannot be brought into full effect unless it is ratified by at least 55 countries. If Australia is not among the 55 nations, its future interests in sensitive negotiations such as security, trade, human rights and other environmental issues may be prejudiced, therefore compromising its political position and power.

Australia’s electrical energy contributes to 55% of its total greenhouse gas emissions. To meet the Protocol, Australia must move away from cheap and abundant fossil fuels to more expensive alternative energy sources such as hydro-electricity, to which it has little of. Add this to a rapid population growth of at least 26% higher than other developed countries and the consequence is higher electricity prices. (The National Greenhouse Strategy 1998:97-99)

As a leading exporter of coal and energy intensive products such as steel, the implementation of the Protocol would mean a constrained fossil fuel use thus increasing production and consumer costs. This in turn may dampen economic activity; reduce the nation’s income and seriously affect the labour market. There would also be an increase of competition from developing countries such as China, which are not constrained by the Protocol and can produce the same products at a much cheaper price. Thus to reach the desired 108% target Australia could suffer up to a –2% growth in the economy. (Dobes et al, 1998:108)

Aside from the economic concerns, some scientists argue that the earth’s climate fluctuates between cold periods lasting for about 100,000 years before they are interrupted by warmer periods lasting for about 10,000 years due to the sun’s activity and the earth’s position in space. Thus they believe that the recent temperature rises are not related to the greenhouse gases released by humans, but are a part of a natural climatic cycle. And regardless of the Protocol, earth’s climate will continue fluctuate independent of any human intervention.

Another negative impact of adopting the Protocol is increased expenditures in the agricultural industry through the necessary improvements of animal feed and frequent maintenance of machinery. Gases contained in the exhaust fumes of agricultural machinery, as well as those produced by bovine and ovine digestive processes, contribute to about 20% of the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions. (The National Greenhouse Strategy 1998:97-99)

In conclusion, most of the evidence suggests that Australia should adopt the Protocol’s recommendations as by doing so, Australia will not only protect itself from the devastating effects of climatic change but may also open up new export markets for renewable energy technology. As Dr Hamilton from the independent public policy research centre, Australian Institute Garden Wing, says, ``we can't exclude ourselves from the most important international environmental treaty…Kyoto is only a very small step, but it is a step in the right direction. If we can't take the first step, how can we take the subsequent steps?''

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