The fact that weather forecasting can be regarded as an imperfect science is a most controversial statement, as it is inevitable that with three key areas that must be accounted for in order to make a sound prediction the misinterpretation of one section may cause the entire accuracy of the prediction is jeopardised. These three main processes attributed to weather forecasting are; observation, analysis of data, and preparation for the forecast provided by the computers. It is proven that the weather patterns during different minor weather events are fairly repetitive yet not completely identical.
Modern day advances in the global weather predictions, have proven to be able to collect information to the remotest of places through use of satellites,, ships, land stations, drifting buoys etc. This has undoubtedly saved a number of lives, and is undeniably the most advanced in history, therefore it is unfair to claim that weather forecasting is an imperfect science.
In cases of extreme weather such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and tsunamis, the degree of accuracy is far more reliable. The Doppler Radar enables meteorologists to follow the pathways of hazardous weather conditions including tornadoes (particularly in America) and warn the inhabitants of a particular danger zone, which gives people a better chance of evacuating and more importantly surviving. In this sense accusing weather forecasting as being deficient is a misconception, yet predicting recent weather e.g. next day is often difficult due to sudden changes.
One significant event that occurred in Southeast England was the October hurricane of 1987. This was largely blamed on Michael Fish who on public television announced that there was no sign of a hurricane, when shortly after one of the worst hurricanes recorded broke out killing 18 people and totally devastating landscape, buildings, businesses, home etc. This was such a terrifying incident, people began to distrust and lose faith in the weather predictions that followed; thus deeming weather forecasting an imperfect science. Arguably it could have be a freak occurrence overlooked by computer technology, or a group of individuals, yet technology has radically improved since then, so it is hard to condemn the Meteorologists of today inefficient.
To summarise, it is unquestionable that modern technological equipment such as the Doppler Radar, satellites and computers, has given much more authenticity and accuracy to weather forecasting. However it can be foreseen that we are not totally meticulous when the prediction of everyday weather events is concerned, and much knowledge is still to be gained.
Hayley Bagnall
