Building Quality
In San Francisco and Japan where there is risk of an earthquake the buildings are all built to a strict building code which is enforced by law. Many buildings are made out of wood so they are more flexible. In LEDC’s however the buildings are made of hard mud or stone and collapse instantly trapping the people inside. Concrete is also a poor building material as it cracks easily.
Recovery
MEDC’s recover quicker from a natural disaster, this is because they have the investment and technology needed to return the area as it was before the earthquake. Because LEDC’s often have to rely on aid from overseas, a quick recovery is often impossible for them.
All of the above effects on the deaths caused by an earthquake are affected by the level of development. The effects below are not concerned with level of development
Population Density
Obviously areas of low population density will suffer less from the effects of an earthquake than an area of high population density. LEDC’s and MEDC’s both have areas of low and high population density and so this is not affected by the level of development
Strength of Earthquake
The strength or magnitude of an earthquake is measured on the Richter scale. It is obvious to think that the size of the earthquake affects the amount of deaths
Earth
The type of soil which the earthquake hits affects the amount of deaths. Some soil will crack easier than others and some soils will hold the building up better than others.
I obtained my data from a secondary source. It was given to me my teacher and consists of a list of twenty eight different earthquakes. The earthquakes occurred between 1972 and 1995. The location, size and number of deaths are given. The level of development of the country is not given so I am going to measure development using GNP because I feel it is the best measure for this task. If an earthquake has occurred twice in the same country I will take the statistics from the most recent earthquake. I am going to miss out any earthquakes where there is more than one death toll, (an official estimate and unofficial estimate.)
The above Scatter Graph gave no correlation. I am going to use
Life Expectancy as a different measure of development. Hopefully by using life Expectancy I will get a better correlation.
Spearman’s Rank
I am now going to use Spearman’s rank to see if there really is a correlation on the above Scatter graphs. Spearman’s rank is a way of knowing if there would be a correlation on a Scatter Graph if it was drawn from data the formulae for Spearman’s Rank is:
Spearman’s Rank = 1 – (6 x 682) = -0.00294
(16 x 16 x 16 – 16)
This shows that there is no correlation at all and that there is no link between the amount of deaths caused by an earthquake and The GNP of the earthquake in which the earthquake occurred. This goes against what I have said in my prediction.
Spearman’s Rank = 1 – (6 x 597 = -0.122
(16 x 16 x 16 – 16)
Once again there is no correlation. I am going to use two case studies to try and show how development affects the deaths caused in an earthquake.
Afghanistan, 25th March 2002
800 -1000 people were left dead during ten hours of earthquakes. The epicentre was in a remote area 150km north of the capital Kabul. The earthquake measured a measly 6.1 on the Richter scale. Why did such a small earthquake cause such a large amount of deaths?
A. The region is remote and war torn. The draughts and overall lack of money means that the area does not have the money to protect against earthquakes.
B. The housing standards in Afghanistan are very poor and the houses simply collapsed on the people inside.
C. The epicentre was very near the surface. Only 8km in depth
Taiwan, 30th March 2002
A large earthquake measuring 7.1 on the Richter scale occurred about 80km to the north-east of Hualien. It occurred where the Philippine plate is subducting beneath the Eurasian Plate. 5 killed were killed and 200 injured. Landslides were also caused. Why did a more powerful earthquake cause only 5 deaths compared to 800 -1000 in the weak Afghan earthquake.
- The epicentre was well away from the built-up areas
- The modern buildings coped better with the tremors than the shacks and mud huts in Afghanistan
- The public were properly prepared for earthquakes at work and in schools and knew not to panic
- Taiwan has more money to spend on emergency services
Conclusion
The result on whether or not the level of development of a country affects the amount of deaths caused by an earthquake proved inconclusive. However common sense says that development clearly does affect deaths.
The randomness of earthquakes is partly responsible for this. No two earthquakes are alike and so it is very hard to compare them to each other. Earthquakes of similar sizes will still occur in different areas where there are different population densities, so more or less people will be killed.
When an earthquake strikes many will die instantly however most of the deaths are from the people trapped in the rubble. In an extremely developed area such as San Francisco the buildings will not collapse and so there will be no problem. In a lesser developed country although buildings will collapse many of the trapped may be rescued. In the least developed countries there are no rescue teams and so the trapped will eventually die.
In this respect development of a country has a huge impact on the amount of deaths caused in an earthquake.
Evaluation
I think that the levels of development I chose were fine for the job, even though they showed no correlation I do not think that any measure of development would have shown a correlation. There were many anomalous results and I have explained why in my conclusion. The fact that I had to rely on secondary data meant that I could not see the destruction for myself limited my work. However it was not realistically possible to visit the sites of the earthquakes and so I had to put up with the secondary data
My evidence was perfectly reliable however there was not enough of it. I think that if I had gathered more results, I may have possibly found a correlation because there would have been more results that fitted the pattern and less of the anomalies. The anomalies have a very large affect on the correlation especially with regards to Spearman’s rank, where there is no visible result. The errors were caused because earthquakes are random and can occur anyplace, anytime.
If I were to do this experiment again I would keep everything the same except get more results. The other reasons for deaths in an earthquake that are not related to development were listed earlier however I will list them again below
Population Density
Obviously areas of low population density will suffer less from the effects of an earthquake than an area of high population density. LEDC’s and MEDC’s both have areas of low and high population density and so this is not affected by the level of development
Strength of Earthquake
The strength or magnitude of an earthquake is measured on the Richter scale. It is obvious to think that the size of the earthquake affects the amount of deaths
Earth
The type of soil which the earthquake hits affects the amount of deaths. Some soil will crack easier than others and some soils will hold the building up better than others.
As a whole my project went against my predictions and was relatively un-successful in terms of results I feel that I managed to give reasons for this and I understand why my were what they were.