The Demographic Transition Model or Population Cycle

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The Demographic Transition Model or Population Cycle

Stage 1 – High birth rate and high death rate

When birth rate and death rate are birth high (about 35 per 1000) then the natural increase is very low, giving only a small population growth or no change at all. Examples of populations at Stage 1 are rare today because of the spread of modern medicines and new farming techniques. Perhaps only a few remote tribes in the Amazon forest, which have little contact with the outside world, are still in Stage 1. The UK was at Stage 1 before the Industrial Revolution up to about 1750.

Reasons for a high death rate include:

  1. Diseases such as Cholera and Bubonic Plague.
  2. Famine and Malnutrition.
  3. Lack of clean water and sewerage facilities.
  4. Lack of medical care and drugs.

Stage 2 – The birth rate remains high and the death rate begins to fall

        At the start of stage 2 both birth rate and death rate remains high.

Reasons for a high birth rate are:

  1. Economic – many children mean more workers in the field.
  2. Social – No birth control or family planning. Couples have large families in the hope that a few will survive childhood. More children to support the parents in old age. Children are regarded as a sign of virility in some cultures.
  3. Political – Governments in Muslim and Catholic countries encourage large families and do not provide much education about family planning.
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During stage 2 the birth rate remains high but the death rate starts to fall to about 20 per 1000 people. By the end of this stage there is a large difference between the birth rate and the death rate. This gives a high natural increase and a rapid growth in population live.

This results from:

  1. Improved medical care including vaccination, hospitals and medicines.
  2. Cleaner water supplies and improved sewage facilities.
  3. An improvement in the quality and the quantity of food supplies.

The UK passed through stage 2 during the industrial revolution between 1750 and 1900. At ...

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