The Demographic Transition Model

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Introduction

In reviewing the material for this presentation, one of the principal references given for the topic of “Models” was that of Livingstone 1992, which above all else gives a good historical account of the Quantitative Revolution, and places subjects such as those of modelling into some context.  To go further than this, however, will be to go over ground that has already been covered in a previous presentation.

We have also already established that the use of a model serves to provide a broad framework of explanation and which should contain relatively few variables and centred upon a range of common denominators within the field of study.  In essence, to construct any model based upon too complicated a set of hypotheses and with too broad a range of variables defeats the very object and purpose, which is simply to establish a framework within which to work. A well constructed model with a firm methodology, a clear hypothesis and with a limited range of variables should enable the predictive qualities of it to become clearer.

To this end, we have chosen and agreed NOT to cover or regurgitate old ground, but rather to build upon it by introducing the concept of models within our discipline using three examples of them.  Whilst acknowledging that there are many other models of equal stature, our approach will, we hope, will assist in giving a clearer understanding of the historiological context for each, together with an insight into how they were and are constructed and by whom.  I shall therefore begin with one of the earliest models to be constructed and used, that of the Demographic Transition Model.  Matt will then take this a step further with an analysis of Rostow’s Model which came much later in time. Rob will then conclude with a look at one of the most recent developments in model use – that of GIS.

In view of the foregoing, we would like you to listen carefully to each of the models presented, which we hope with your own background reading will be as informative as we have found to be interesting, and enable us all to see to what extent models have a place in the geography of today.

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The Demographic Transition Model

The volume of research and application of models to attempt to evaluate and explain the existing demography of a population as well as future projections are too broad and diverse to be covered here. What I propose however, is to give a broad explanation of the use of models by demographers, how they have been developed and thus hopefully to stimulate some views and opinions on where the use of such models may direct us in the future. To further our understanding of the use of models in the field I’d like to ...

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