The population of humans, on earth, has always been dependant on the availability of resources.

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Alastair Baillie        Geography:

        Using examples explain why the 3 models of population growth

        are better at explaining the past than predicting the future

The population of humans, on earth, has always been dependant on the availability of resources. We are not in equilibrium with the ecosystems and once these resources run out, so will our time on earth. These models try to explain how long we have left, and why this is the case. The main reason that these models are only valuable for explaining the ‘past’, and not predicting the ‘future’ is that there are to many variables, such as war and famine, that they do not take into account.

The models all show a pattern that keeps repeating, in the case of Malthus, the population is limited by ‘food supply’. But this isn’t always the case, as explained by Esther Boserup’s model, which explains that ‘nature is the mother of invention’. This means that the population increases, and may exceed the food supply, but then inventions and technological advances create ways to accommodate this problem. The ‘Club of Rome’ model, which explains Malthusian principles, also takes into consideration resources, such as water. This model illustrates that the population will increase and the amount of resources will decrease. Population will exceed the resources and continue to increase for some time, and then it will decrease very dramatically.

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Unfortunately, these models cannot predict extreme circumstances, such as war and famine. These events play a huge part in population growth, as did the events of World War II, after which there was a large ‘baby-boom’ and the population of UK increased dramatically. War can also alter population the other way. A country’s population could also decrease due to war, by refugees moving out, and also the loss inhabitants in combat. Famine also causes emigration to other, more prosperous countries, but also leads to a decrease in population due to death rates increasing. These type of events are impossible ...

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