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The population of humans, on earth, has always been dependant on the availability of resources.

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Introduction

The population of humans, on earth, has always been dependant on the availability of resources. We are not in equilibrium with the ecosystems and once these resources run out, so will our time on earth. These models try to explain how long we have left, and why this is the case. The main reason that these models are only valuable for explaining the 'past', and not predicting the 'future' is that there are to many variables, such as war and famine, that they do not take into account. The models all show a pattern that keeps repeating, in the case of Malthus, the population is limited by 'food supply'. But this isn't always the case, as explained by Esther Boserup's model, which explains that 'nature is the mother of invention'. ...read more.

Middle

Famine also causes emigration to other, more prosperous countries, but also leads to a decrease in population due to death rates increasing. These type of events are impossible to predict, but still play a huge part in the way population stands against the resources available. The development of LEDCs has also not been taken into account by Malthus' and Club of Rome's models. Boserup, on the other hand, for foresaw these actions, to an extent as she explained that when the population starts overwhelming the natural resources, we find methods to revert the situation (i.e. development). With LEDCs developing populations will stop increasing so dramatically which will release the strain on our resources. With the introduction of contraception to LEDCs, the birth rates are starting to decrease, and this means that there will be less people requiring the valuable resources, such as water. ...read more.

Conclusion

This is another indicator that Boserup had the right idea that humans will think of a solution every time that resource-levels become low. All in all, both Malthus' and Club of Rome's models were much better at explaining the past than predicting the future as they do not take into account so many variables. Boserup's model, although not perfect, is a more accurate prediction of what is yet to come, as her theory that 'nature is the mother of invention', is true, to some extent, when humans are concerned. Her model takes into account the fact that people change when their lives are under too much pressure. LEDCs are starting to develop due to the realization that if they don't, they will have serious problems. Alastair Baillie Geography: Using examples explain why the 3 models of population growth are better at explaining the past than predicting the future ...read more.

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