To what extent do rates of natural population change vary globally?

by edbirrell95 (student)

Population change is the growth or decline of the total population over a period of time. It can occur either naturally or by migration, but in this essay I'll be looking at the natural factors. The two primary factors of population change are birth rate and death rate, if births outnumber deaths then the global population expands, this is natural increase, if deaths outnumbers births then the global population declines, this is natural decrease. These are influenced by demographic, social, economic and political factors.

The demographic transition model (DTM) refers to the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as the world develops from pre-industrial times to industrialized economic times. It has 4 stages, stage one is a high stationary country, stage two is a early expanding country, stage three is a late expanding country and stage four is a low stationary country. By identifying nations at different stages of this model, we can examine global variation in natural population change.

In stage one, it shows a pre-industrial society, death rates and birth rates are both high and fluctuate rapidly according to natural events, such as drought and disease, the extent of this is a relatively constant and young population, the death rate per year fluctuates between 36,000 and 38,000 and the birth rate is 37,000 per year. The high birth rates could be due to no family planning and no contraception, this means birth rates are only limited by the ability of women to bear children, women like to have children in a country in stage one because they contribute to the economy of a household from a early age. Death rates tend to match birth rates, this could be because of poor health care and a poorer standard of living so the life expectancy would be quite low, another cause could be because of a high infant mortality rate, which would be because of poor health care and lack of medical resources. An example of a country that is in stage one is Mali, they are LEDC country so will have poor health care and a poor standard of living, this means there birth and death rates will be high. Their birth rate is 45.15 births/1,000 population, their death rate is 13.94 deaths/1,000 population, their infant mortality rate is 109.08 deaths/1,000 live births, the life expectancy is 53.06 years and their population is 15.8 million people.

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In stage two there is a rapid fall in death rates and the birth rate still remains high, the extent of this is a increasingly rapid rise in population growth, as the gap between deaths and births grows wider, the birth rate remains at 36,000 per year but the death rate falls to 15,000 per year. The fall in death rate could be due to improvements in the food supply brought about by higher yields in agriculture and better transportation of food, this prevents death due to starvation and lack of water. Another reason for the fall in death rate could be because of improvements in health care so the life expectancy increases. The birth rate still remains high because the countries are still a LEDC so there will be very little contraception and they will have large families because children can contribute to households at a early age, however there is usually a decline in infant mortality rates because of the improvement in health care. An example of a country that is in stage two is Afghanistan, they are a LEDC country. Their birth rate is 39.3 births/1,000 population, their death rate is 14.59 deaths/1,000 population, their infant mortality rate is 121.63 deaths/1,000 live births, the life expectancy is 49.72 years and their population is 35.3 million people.

In stage 3 there is a decline in birth rate and the death rate stays the same, then the two eventually meet at 13,000 per year, the extent of this is that the population stabilises. The decline in birth rate could be due to a fall in child deaths so parents won't need as many children to ensure a comfortable old age. Another factor could be because of people changing their values and more females seeking employment so they don't have time for children. Another factor could be because of improvements in contraceptive technology and increased education on contraception. The death rate remains low because of the advances in health care and medicines to cure disease, also a country in stage 3 will have better standards of living so the life expectancy increases. An example of a country in stage three is Brazil, they are a NIC country so they will have advances in health care, contraception, better economy and a better standard of living. Their birth rate is 17.48 births/1,000 population, their death rate is 6.38 deaths/1,000 population, their infant mortality rate is 20.5 deaths/1,000 live births, the life expectancy is 72.79 years and the population 196.6 million people. The extend of these stats is why the Brazil population has stabilised because the birth rate and death rate is fairly similar.

In stage 4 the birth rates and death rates are both low and the birth rate fluctuates between 12,000 and 16,000 per year and the death rate is a steady 12,000 per year. The extend of this is that the total population is high and stable, an example of a country in stage 4 is China, they are a MEDC. This means they will have a low death rate because they will have very good health care, a good standard of living and so they will have a high life expectancy. They have a low birth rate because of a government policy, which is the one child policy so parents were only allowed to have one child which lowered the birth rate. The birth rate of China is 12.31 births/1,000 population, the death rate is 7.17 deaths/1,000 population, the infant mortality rate is 15.62 deaths/1,000 live births and the life expectancy is 74.84 years. The extend of this is China has a high steady population 1.34 billion people.

Development influences many factors of which in turn can influence natural population change. These factors are living standards, quality of life, rising wealth, advancing materialism, advances of sustainability and extended social services. I think the most important factor which influences population change though is the extend of living standards, this is because if a country has good living standards their overall life expectancy will increase and so there death rate will increase so this will show a natural rise in population because there will be more births than deaths.