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To what extent do rates of natural population change vary globally?

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To what extent do rates of natural population change vary globally? Population change is the growth or decline of the total population over a period of time. It can occur either naturally or by migration, but in this essay I'll be looking at the natural factors. The two primary factors of population change are birth rate and death rate, if births outnumber deaths then the global population expands, this is natural increase, if deaths outnumbers births then the global population declines, this is natural decrease. These are influenced by demographic, social, economic and political factors. The demographic transition model (DTM) refers to the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as the world develops from pre-industrial times to industrialized economic times. It has 4 stages, stage one is a high stationary country, stage two is a early expanding country, stage three is a late expanding country and stage four is a low stationary country. By identifying nations at different stages of this model, we can examine global variation in natural population change. ...read more.


The fall in death rate could be due to improvements in the food supply brought about by higher yields in agriculture and better transportation of food, this prevents death due to starvation and lack of water. Another reason for the fall in death rate could be because of improvements in health care so the life expectancy increases. The birth rate still remains high because the countries are still a LEDC so there will be very little contraception and they will have large families because children can contribute to households at a early age, however there is usually a decline in infant mortality rates because of the improvement in health care. An example of a country that is in stage two is Afghanistan, they are a LEDC country. Their birth rate is 39.3 births/1,000 population, their death rate is 14.59 deaths/1,000 population, their infant mortality rate is 121.63 deaths/1,000 live births, the life expectancy is 49.72 years and their population is 35.3 million people. In stage 3 there is a decline in birth rate and the death rate stays the same, then the two eventually meet at 13,000 per year, the extent of this is that the population stabilises. ...read more.


This means they will have a low death rate because they will have very good health care, a good standard of living and so they will have a high life expectancy. They have a low birth rate because of a government policy, which is the one child policy so parents were only allowed to have one child which lowered the birth rate. The birth rate of China is 12.31 births/1,000 population, the death rate is 7.17 deaths/1,000 population, the infant mortality rate is 15.62 deaths/1,000 live births and the life expectancy is 74.84 years. The extend of this is China has a high steady population 1.34 billion people. Development influences many factors of which in turn can influence natural population change. These factors are living standards, quality of life, rising wealth, advancing materialism, advances of sustainability and extended social services. I think the most important factor which influences population change though is the extend of living standards, this is because if a country has good living standards their overall life expectancy will increase and so there death rate will increase so this will show a natural rise in population because there will be more births than deaths. ...read more.

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