OLLY
Migration and urbanization
Migration is the most volatile among demographic phenomena: migratory flows can appear, change intensity and even get reversed in a short time. From the viewpoint of economic and social policies migration has a complex nature. Being often a consequence of poverty and lack of food security, it usually is an indicator of problem areas. On the other hand it may contribute to resolve problems in sending areas by reducing population pressure there. But then again, it may deprive those same areas of valuable labour and human resources. At the migrants' level it should on average improve individual or household wellbeing; but at the aggregate level it may add to social tensions, environmental problems and economic woes in receiving areas (e.g. food insecurity and specific nutritional problems among migrants can be a feature of large-scale migration flows, including refugee movements). Much still needs to be done to take into account migration flows, their determinants and their possible consequences in the design of development interventions.
Migration causes changes in the spatial distribution of populations, the most notable of which is urbanization. The UN estimates that urban areas accounted for 20 percent of the population of developing regions in 1955, and 40 percent now. Although the speed of rural-to-urban population transfers has slowed down, it is expected that by 2020 the majority of the population of developing regions will be urban. Here again, regional disparities exist: in many countries of Africa (especially Eastern Africa) and Asia (especially South-central Asia) the process is much less advanced; by 2030 the two sub-regions just mentioned, or the group of the "least developed countries", will still have less than 50 percent of urban population. On the other hand Western Asia, or Latin America and the Caribbean, already are as highly urbanized as Europe and North America.
Urbanization is commonly associated with the idea of modernization. From the rural viewpoint urbanization can foster the development of commercial agriculture and contribute, with urban-based products and services, to agricultural progress and the modernization of rural life. On the other hand, the intensity of rural-to-urban population transfers often is determined by flight from rural poverty rather than by actual economic opportunities in the non-agricultural sectors. In such cases the livelihood and food security problems of urban populations are excacerbated. From the macro-economic viewpoint, the intersectoral labour transfers that are part of the urbanization process pose a specific challenge: that of ensuring that agricultural labour productivity grows as rapidly as the ratio of total population to agricultural labour force - lest the degree of satisfaction of domestic needs should decrease, or the dependency on imports should increase.
HARRIET
Ageing
The ageing of human populations (i.e. the gradual increase in the proportion of adults and elderly people) has emerged as one of the most significant demographic processes of the late 20th century and of the decades to come. In developing countries the proportion of population over 60, now estimated at 8 percent, is expected to rise to 21 percent by 2050. It is worth noting that the total percentage of dependant population will not increase, since the population under age 15, now estimated at 33 percent, is expected to decline to 20 percent during the same period; the total of these two age categories will therefore still be 41 percent. On the other hand, the fact that the elderly people will make up half of the dependant population instead of one fifth implies greatly changed needs.
Interestingly, FAO has shown that ageing often manifests itself earlier, and proceeds faster, in rural areas than in the urban sector, due to the migration of younger family members to the cities. Now, the age structure and the composition of the labour force have implications for the division of labour, including in agricultural systems. In this context, the specific needs of elderly rural workers must be understood and taken into account in policies, and their value and contributions must be promoted. The implications of changes in age structures for sustainable agriculture and food security must be studied and efforts must be made to build on the potentially positive changes for areas such as rural credit.
AMELIA
Gender issues in rural societies
Gender roles and relations, including the specific constraints, needs and opportunities of men and women have an influence on demographic phenomena such as fertility, mortality and migration (and the resulting population structures and spatial distribution). For instance, women's empowerment, including more equal access to education, has been shown to foster a reduction in fertility and infant mortality. An important aspect of those relationships, in rural areas, concerns the agricultural division of labour, access to/management of productive resources, and outcomes such as food security. The differences between women and men in terms of their roles, the impact of interventions on each individual, and his or her opportunities to gain access to resources and decision-making have to be recognized and taken into account in order to implement successful development programmes.
SY
Health and HIV/AIDS
Development agencies have begun to regard the AIDS pandemic (like other widespread diseases, such as malaria and tuberculosis) as an important crosscutting developmental issue. FAO has shown that the HIV/AIDS pandemic exacerbates existing obstacles to production in agriculture and increases malnutrition. The sickness and death of working adults affect labour supply and its division between adults and children, as well as between men and women. AIDS is thus a challenge to all agricultural institutions, both at central and local level. These need to reassess their mode of operation and to respond effectively to the rapidly changing needs of rural populations. Agricultural policies and programmes can have an important impact on the course of the epidemics: for example, fluctuations in commodity prices or in yields can encourage temporary migration, which increases the vulnerability of populations and individuals and may further expose them to the infection.
TASH
Looking ahead
Looking at the coming decades, the international community must be aware that food, agricultural and rural development challenges require enough understanding and anticipation of changes in the population setup, particularly at the country and regional levels, and of how agricultural demand, production, trade and natural resources management will be affected by those changes. In designing policies to address the said challenges, purely technical and sectoral approaches are likely to be inferior to the task: programmes should recognize the biophysical, demographic, social, economic, cultural and institutional dimensions of development goals. In this context, monitoring population change - and studying its determinants - at the level of relevant economic and agro-ecological areas would be a valuable input to policy making in this sector like in others.