Why does the demographic transition concept continue to occupy a central position in the analysis of change in human populations?

3. Late expanding

4. Low stationary

In the High Stationary phase both birth rates and death rates are high. Many countries went through this stage prior or during the industrial revolution. Birth rates were high due to a number of contributing factors. Families needed lots of children to cater for work on the land. In these ages there was little birth or family planning therefore there was little control over sizes of families. Infant mortality was also high therefore it encouraged parents to produce more in the hope that several would survive. All of these factors gave rise to high birth rates. The high death rates were mainly due to disease and lack of basic hygiene and medical procedures. Due to the high birth and death rates there was little growth in population and occasionally disease epidemics could cause a decrease in population, this is why this stage can also be called high fluctuating. The UK experienced this stage pre 1760’s and countries which are experiencing stage one in today’s world are Ethiopia and Bangladesh. The UK experienced the early expanding phase (stage 2) between 1760-1880. During this phase there were dramatic improvements in medical care and sanitation these factors and the improvements in food production in both quality and quantity helped decrease the death rates. Birth rates still remained high due to continuing tradition and practice. The huge drop in death rate and the continuing high birth rate meant that population ‘sky-rocketed’. Towards the end of this phase children were less of an importance and less able to contribute to the wealth of a family therefore this encouraged a small fall in birth rates. A prime example of a country which is currently experiencing stage 2 is Kenya where population is increasing dramatically. Kenya has a high birth rate of 32 per 1000 but low death rate of 14 per 1000 which obviously contributes to a high rate of growth.

In stage 3 the introduction of contraceptives and the changing traditions and attitudes of families meant there was a sharp decrease in birth rates. The rapid fall in birth rates and the continuing but slowing fall in death rates meant population growth rates fell dramatically. Progressing into the final stage 4 both death rates and birth rates remain low. Both variables fluctuate giving a steady population with little change. Countries which are said to be in stage 4 are Canada, Japan and the USA. Figures taken from the census bureau state that Japan is experiencing a growth rate of 0 as the birth rates and death rates are almost equal giving a steady population with little change. It is believed that the demographic transition model will continue into stage 5 where birth rates fall below death rates therefore giving a decrease in population. There is some evidence in Eastern Europe where this is already occurring. In Italy demographic indicators suggest that between 2000 and 2025 the rate of natural increase will go from 0 in 2000 to -0.5 in 2025. Figures show that in 2025 death rates will exceed birth rates from an equal 10 birth rates to death rates per 1,000 in 2000 to death rates increasing to 13 where birth rates drop to 7 per 1,000 population. A typical demographic transition model can be seen below showing all the major stages within the model.

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There are a few problems with the demographic transition model which fail to consider or predict several factors of population development. Many countries have developed very differently and at different times therefore giving different models for the population growth. Time scales of the demographic transition models can be very different for example, the UK is presently experiencing stage 4 whereas Eastern African countries are still in stage 1 of the model when the UK was experiencing this in the 1700’s. The model assumes that all countries in the world will progress through all stages in the model therefore all countries will reach the same levels of development as the more economically developed countries. This however seems unlikely, it is believed that many Eastern African countries will never become industrialised therefore cannot reach levels of development that we have received thus cannot have the same population demography. The demographic transition model is globally generalized and not all countries will have a model which looks similar to the one above. If two countries were to be compared although that their demographic transition model may look very different both countries may have progressed through similar stages to the one above. The South-East Asian countries have developed much faster than many other countries due to levels of industrialisation. The demographic model of these countries appears much more squashed as the time scale is over a shorter period of time.

Although the demographic transition model has its limitations it still continues to be used in the analysis of human populations. The model still maintains to be very useful as it only requires two variables to analyse population growth, birth and death rates. The model does not require other factors such as immigration, emigration and economic development rates therefore remains to be simple and effective to use when analysing countries population demography. There is not yet a model which can identify separate stages which can be globally recognised by many countries. The demographic model has seen many countries progress through all the stages of the model therefore it is still very favourable for predicting how developing countries population will evolve. The model continues to occupy a central position as it is very useful for observing dramatic population change. By using correct data values countries can see how fast their country’s population is expanding and by observing this can use to model to enforce policies to encourage or to discourage child births. For example, countries can introduce family planning and teach about contraception to help control birth rates. Countries such as China have used an enforcement policy whereby only one child per family is allowed to control the booming population.