- At this moment in time, the British government is not willing to take the risk as to whether the virus will mutate or not, responding by producing national stock levels of the vaccination Tamiflu. This vaccination is said to only relieve you of the virus a day earlier if not taken as well as stimulating unusual side effects. Thus, there has been an upsurge of anger towards the government’s decision to invest a lot of money into an ineffective vaccination. The Mexican swine flu resists older antiviral drugs like rimantadine but it is obviously still susceptible to Tamiflu as well as Relenza. Nonetheless, last flu season, virologists were shocked when the ordinary H1N1 spontaneously developed near total-resistance to Tamiflu. The worry is that swine H1N1 could follow the same trend, particularly if it starts swapping genes with the human virus.
- Leading researchers have said that our best hope will most likely lie in monoclonal antibodies, which could both prevent infection and help fight it. These immune proteins can be engineered to recognize a specific virus, and then manufactured in production plants. The vaccines will focus on parts of the virus, which do not mutate, meaning they will still work if the virus evolves.
A major concern is the potential outbreak of a hybrid virus, one that combines the virulence of the H5N1 bird flu with the high transmissibility of the H1N1 swine flu. This would evolve from someone that is already infected with bird flu, then contracting swine flu, allowing the two viruses the chance to recombine.
Doubts have also arisen over the ability of health infrastructures to cope, should the pandemic mirror previous ones, such as that of 1918. Measures such as frequent washing and cancelling public events will delay the spread of the virus, but they will not tackle it. There are a few anti-viral drugs as previously mentioned, which can be effective if taken early enough. Yet stocks can sometimes be limited, and without an effective diagnosis they could either be administered too early or too late.
In the coming month, health authorities should not become complacent due to the large stocks of Tamiflu available especially as the virus could mutate before an extensive fraction of the population are vaccinated, rendering it useless. Tamiflu resistance can also transpire if the drug is widely used on those with very mild symptoms. The situations must be carefully observed as influenza has startled us numerous times before. It seems that if we utilize all the scientific tools available to us, then even if the virus mutates, we can still wipe it out. However, this will cause gigantic financial deficits, not exactly fitting in well with the current economic situation, which is practically in free-fall. Although the virus is a potential killer, it does not look likely it will cause the extinction of the human race.
By Josh Leader 3205
AS level subjects: chemistry, biology, mathematics and latin
