Canadians have also become much more mobile. Many Canadian families now live miles away from other family members and friends. The 1996 Census, for example, found that 1 in 5 Canadians have moved a significant distance between 1991 and 1996 (Statistics Canada, 2003). This is due to a change in lifestyle as well as innovations in technology that have reformed Canada throughout the last 30 years.
Just as family norms are shifting, so is the role of the government in our lives. The scope of government activity in Canada has narrowed considerably just as the dependant-care needs of families have risen sharply. Governments across Canada have tackled financial deficits throughout the 1990s. Consequently, government spending on important supports for families has declined. The demands for key community supports such as child care and home care have risen above the needed funding that they are receiving. Increasingly, such programs are being offered on a cost-recovery basis. Similarly, spending has been largely cut back on income support programs such as Employment Insurance and social assistance, thereby eroding the financial security of many Canadian families (Ruggeri, 2002).
All in all, the changing demographics in Canada as a result of the Boom, Bust and Echo periods have greatly shaped our nation and they have also given us a prediction of what we should anticipate in the future. The demographic and economic forces associated with population aging will pose challenges to our government, labour force, health care system and policy-makers, to name a few.
The Labour Force
Inevitably, the aging of the Canadian workforce is another issue that must be addressed. The average age of Canadian workers rose from 37.1 years in 1991 to an average age of 39 years in 2001. About 15% of the workforce was within 10 years of retirement age at the end of the last decade, and projections are that by 2011 nearly a fifth of baby-boomers in Canada will be at least 61 (Public Health Agency of Canada, 2005).
The fact that birth rates in Canada have been low for the last 30 years has resulted in fewer young people entering the workforce to replace those getting close to retirement.
This aging of the Canadian workforce raises the potential for shortages in some highly skilled occupations, and the likelihood that Canada will need to continue to turn to immigration as a source of highly skilled workers. Demand for highly skilled workers has changed the labour market. From 1991 to 2001, people in highly skilled labour occupations, which normally require a university education, accounted for almost half of the growth in the total labour force. In 2001, these workers accounted for 16% of the total labour force, up from 13% a decade earlier (Statistics Canada, 2003). There is now a greater demand for workers with university educations opposed to apprentice training (Exhibit 2). This factor has made a large impact in such that many of the older workers have become obsolete due to their lack of education and ability to perform highly-skilled tasks.
The aging population poses a serious labour demand issue for the future. Beginning in 2010, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over will expand rapidly, reinforced by a low birth rate and a longer life expectancy. In 2001, those aged 37 to 55 made up 47% of the labour force. In 2011, half of them will be 55 or over, and 18% of them will be over the age of 60. The 2002 General Social Survey found that the quality of work and the uncertainty of unemployment are significant aspects that the elderly take into consideration when contemplating retirement (Exhibit 3). The percentage employed, by both males and females in the 55-69 age group, seem to be hitting a common plateau between 32% for females and 50% for males. This trend is projected to not fluctuate as early retirement is on the rise due to the improvements in the economy in recent years.
An aging work force may have a bigger impact on some occupations than others.
University and college professors are also older, on average, than the overall labour force. In 2001, almost 29% of professors were aged 55 and over, much higher than the proportion of only 19% a decade earlier. In 2001, more than 17% of college teachers were aged 55 and over compared with less than 11% in 1991 (Public Health Agency of Canada, 2005).
Several of the skilled trades in the construction sector have a relatively large share of older workers. This may lead to shortages in the coming years as well. The relatively large number of teachers in older age groups may also lead to shortages. This could occur just as the knowledge economy is demanding workers with higher levels of education (Burleton, 2002).
Among the occupations at risk, the health sector is often identified because of the increased health-care needs of an aging population. General practitioners and medical specialists are already older, on average, than the overall work force, compounding concerns about potential shortages. In 2001, there were as many general practitioners aged 20 to 34 as there were general practitioners aged 55 and older. In 1991, there were 18 of these younger doctors for every 10 older doctors (Canadian Institute of Actuaries, 2001). This leads us to the next topic of discussion; health care.
Health Care
While governments need to provide for the increases in health care costs as the Baby Boomers are moving into their senior years, these pressures themselves do not necessitate a comprehensive restructuring of the health system. Instead, the focus of the change in the health sector should shift to ensuring that appropriate structures and services are in place to efficiently address the needs of an increasingly elderly population (Foot, 1996).
As people age, their health status tends to deteriorate, with a corresponding increase in the health care costs they incur (Exhibit 4). As Canadians reach the age of 75 and over the average health care expenditure per person dramatically increases to above $25 000 per person in some cases. When a country's population as a whole is aging, as is the case in Canada, the relationship between age and health outcomes has implications for that country's health care system (Hogan, 2002). For this reason, most discussions about renewal of Canada's health care system give a prominent role to the aging Canadian population. We have come to a point in time where baby boomers and their parents are slowly reaching ages where health care is extremely important not to mention costly. As the elderly population increases, Canada will face substantial financial pressures on the health care system, particularly starting around 2010 when the Baby Boom generation reaches the 65 and over age group. Also, it is important that the health care system in Canada is properly structured to deal with the special needs of a large elderly population including, for example, greater requirements for long-term care and home care, and a strong focus on encouraging healthy aging. Financial pressures from aging don’t directly threaten the long-term sustainability of the health care system as these pressures are linked to the temporary, yet long-lasting effects of an aging Baby Boom generation (Canadian Institute of Actuaries, 2001). Hence, in depth future analysis of Canada’s health policy related to aging should shift the focus from the overall financial sustainability of the health care system to how the system might best be structured to meet the health needs of this aging population (Foot, 1996). It is the large increases in expenditure per person over the age of 65, combined with the projected increases in the fraction of the population who are older than 65, that are the source of concern about the financial pressures of aging (Hogan, 2002). This is due to the projected expenditure growth arising from the aging of the Baby Boom generation which involves a change that will partially reverse and is not caused by the structure in the health care system. It is not imperative to deal with the financial pressures by reforming the system, rather than simply choosing to devote a larger share of the economy's resources to health (Exhibit 5). The effect of an aging Baby Boom generation is not necessarily a cause of or applies to the aging pressures that have arisen from increases in longevity. Increased expenditure arising from ongoing increases in life expectancy represents an ongoing driver of health expenditure. It is not clear, however, that this has been or will continue to be a significant driver (Provincial and Territorial Ministers of Health, 2000).
The concerns that the increasingly elderly Canadian population will place substantial financial pressures on the public health care system are warranted. The aging of the Canadian population will almost certainly lead to a substantial increase in the cost of providing the current level of health care in Canada. However, this cost pressure will not lead to an offsetting increase in incomes and revenues. This financial burden will be more severe in some provinces than others because of provincial differences in age structure and population health. Accordingly, these financial pressures will likely be temporary, as the Baby Boomers generation move into their senior years which is quickly approaching (Canadian Institute of Actuaries, 2001). More importantly, there is considerable evidence that these pressures will not threaten the long-term sustainability of Canada's health care system, but will simply be a reflection of temporary cycles in fertility which, in turn, lead to cycles in health expenditure. It is significant that the financial pressures arising from aging will vary widely across different groups of Canadians because of differences in age structure and population health. An example of this is that fact that although the First Nations and Inuit communities tend to have younger populations in general than the rest of Canada, the financial pressures of aging in these communities may be more acute because the age at which expenditures start to rise is lower than for the rest of Canada (Foot, 1996). This may well have implications for the capacity of the public health system to deliver a comparable level of service to all Canadians.
Conclusion
The growing number of older people who are now older Canadians represents a new phenomenon. Today's seniors are pioneers of an uncertain society; they will shape and define a role for those who retire tomorrow. Diversity is a key trait amongst older Canadians. Although certain features tend to characterize older citizens as a group, seniors differ tremendously. Some are married, some divorced, some widowed. Some live in urban areas, some in rural areas. Some are 65, some 95. Because seniors differ so much in their situations and lifestyles, they differ in their needs. The challenge in providing services for Canada's growing population of older citizens, whether in the field of housing, traditional medical services or community social services, is to meet those needs through the widest range of options. Canada's success in grappling with that challenge will eventually affect the lives of all Canadians. In just over three decades the baby boomers will be 65 and older, and the fraction of the older population will be far greater than previously experienced in Canada, or indeed in any modern industrial nation. That prospect has given rise to major concerns about our ability as a society to meet the large anticipated changes that will affect the economy. The labour force will shrink and in turn cause a serious labour demand issue in which Canada must find a way to cope with in roder to function properly. Canada’s health care system will be facing increased financial pressures int eh near future, and the system must be properly structured in order to deal with not only the aging of the population but the changing increases in life expectancy. A balanced view is required so that attention be given to all publicly provided services, not only to those services used in large measure by the elderly, and also to privately provided goods and services, since the costs must be charged against the same national income in both cases. Canada’s changing demographic state is a natural process and we must take all factors into account when decided how to best facilitate our nation today and even more so in the future.
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