Yugoslavia suffered severe agricultural problems, due to drought and opposition to Government plans to turn farms into collective units. In a country where a large proportion of the population was peasant farmers, this created a problem. Yugoslavia had to rely on shipments from the USSR and the USA to survive.
Tito built up industry and created thousands of jobs for Yugoslavs. By the 1960’s many families had refrigerators and even televisions – a huge triumph for a country where less than 20 years before almost everybody had been peasant farmers. People suddenly had good wages and savings instead of being poor and always short of money. Tito also built up tourism – creating further job opportunities and making the country wealthier. Yugoslavia was a popular holiday destination – it was cheap, had good weather and wasn’t too far to travel.
Although a lot of people disagreed with Government ideas, ethnic groups had greater say in the running of their individual regions. In 1963 the county’s name changed again – The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. A Federal Council was made up of representatives from the different regions, but many people saw through this, as an attempt to fool people into thinking they had a part in running the country. Serbia was still the center of power and Serbs still ran the country how they wished. Yugoslavia still had a Secret Police and opponents were still dealt with swiftly by them.
The 1970’s brought economic problems and mass unemployment. Tension between the ethnic groups grew worse to the extent that even football matches would cause riots and fighting between rival groups. It became the case that only Tito’s strong reputation and the Secret Police held Yugoslavia together. The ethnic rivalry began to challenge Communist control. Younger generations were unhappy with the unemployment – due to the changes Tito had brought about these people had lived almost all of their lives in a wealthy country. Most could not remember the times of peasant farming and poverty like their parents did. As a result they began to rebel against the Communist movement. When Tito died on 4th May 1980 he had no obvious successor and Yugoslavia’s future looked decidedly unstable.
Question 2:
Why has there been a conflict in the former Yugoslavia during the 1990’s?
A number of factors caused the conflict in Yugoslavia in the 1990’s. There were some general reasons but also many specific causes.
In between 1980 when Tito (the former Yugoslav leader) died and 1990 Yugoslavia held together and remained a peaceful country. The problems that Tito had kept under control for the past thirty-five years gradually started to cause more and more conflict over the 10-year period. These problems had started to cause trouble towards the end of Tito’s reign (although some dated back as far as the late 1960’s) but did not escalate until after his death. Kosovo had gained more control over its own decisions in 1969 following riots, and in 1967 Croatia had launched a campaign so that Croat could officially be a separate language. The 1970’s saw more problems such as fighting at Serb/Croat football matches and vandalism of Serbian (Cyrillic) signs. The younger generation were turning against communism and there was less and less support for the country’s government.
Yugoslavia had no obvious successor – Tito did not have a deputy and no one was sure who should rule the country, as there were still many different ethnic groups, with different beliefs and wishes for the country’s future. Various joint leaderships were formed, but all of these were weak.
The regional differences continued to grow throughout the 1980’s – some areas (such as Slovenia and Croatia) were much more prosperous than others and felt that their wealth should be demonstrated by having greater independence. They complained almost constantly about having to subsidise the poorer areas. The poorer areas however, (such as Bosnia and Kosovo – the areas inhabited by Muslims) felt that it was unfair that their provinces were not as rich as the other parts of Yugoslavia and that more investments should be made in their areas. This dated from Tito’s leadership – he had failed to build the economy up in some states in the same way he had in others.
Economic problems such as high inflation, food shortages and unemployment didn’t help and the country felt let down by its Government. Also there was economic depression in Germany – many Yugoslavs worked away from home and were employed in Germany. Due to these problems, the prosperity Yugoslavs had enjoyed throughout the 1960’s ended and those who remembered it and not the harder times, which had come before the wealth, resented it.
Yugoslavia wasn’t the only Communist country to face problems, and this meant there was no one to help. The USSR (the biggest communist movement in the world) also faced economic problems and was breaking up, to first become the Commonwealth of Independent States, and then a set of individual countries. The anti-communist movement began in Poland, where an independent trade union built up and quickly gained the support of the whole country. The Polish Government was forced to allow free elections, in which the leader of the union (which called itself the Solidarity) was elected President. Movements like these quickly followed throughout Eastern Europe (Hungary, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Romania and Bulgaria) and each of these country’s Governments were overthrown and held free elections. It wasn’t long before this development reached Yugoslavia. By 1990, most other communist regimes had collapsed.
The Serbs still felt that they were the most important group in Yugoslavia, and that they should rule it. When war broke out in 1991, it was the Serbs who fought against the other groups in an effort to keep the country together – so that they would have more power if they controlled Yugoslavia once more, as they planned.
Elections were held in Yugoslavia in 1990, in which nationalist groups were strongly supported and Slobodan Milosevic was elected national President. Croatia elected Franjo Tudjman as its President. When, in 1991, a Croat tried to stand for the national Presidency, the Serbs blocked this. Following this, both Slovenia and Croatia declared independence – they were attacked by the Serb-dominated Army and Air Force.
Slovenia was the first state to break away and become an independent country. It took the Slovenes just ten days (in June 1991) of fighting to gain their independence. Slovenia was the furthest away from Serbia and as a result there were very few Serbs living there, so Serbia only made a brief attempt to prevent the separation. The Slovenes had always resented Serb dominance and they had very strong, and powerful nationalist movements.
Croatia too gained their independence in January 1992, following a longer seven-month war, and also after losing 33% of land to Serbia. There were Serbs living in Croatia, but they were a minority. The Serbs had a number of disputes over where the Serb/Croat boarder lay. Like Slovenia, the Croats had strong nationalist movements and a resentment of Serb dominance. These were both relatively minor conflicts.
In 1992, Bosnia too declared itself as an independent country following a referendum. However, unlike Slovenia and Croatia, Bosnia had a mixed population – 1.9 million Muslims, 1.3 million Serbs and 0.75 million Croats. Both the Muslims and the Croats were in favour of independence, but the Bosnian Serbs refused to vote, as they wanted to keep Bosnia linked to Belgrade (the Serbian and Yugoslav capital). The Serbs therefore lost the referendum (the combined votes of the Croats and Muslims produced a majority) and the country was rewarded international recognition.
Serbia was determined to keep all Serbs together and a Serb called Radovan Karadzic led the Bosnian Serbs in forming an Army and attacking Sarajevo (Bosnia’s capital) and other Muslim or Croat occupied towns. Slobodan Milosevic (the President) ordered the Yugoslav Army to help. Serbs had gained control 70% of Bosnia at one stage. The Serb weapons were superior to any of those owned by the Muslims or the Croats. The aims of the Serbs was to conquer as much land as possible and to remove all non-Serbs from the area with a method they called ‘ethnic cleansing’. This involved clearing villages of anyone who had an ethnic background, which was not Serb and often included shooting civilians – especially of men. At one incident it is thought that more than 7000 men were mass murdered in this way. As the stories of ethnic cleansing spread around the world, counties who had previously refused to become involved sent soldiers to act as peacekeepers in Bosnia. It wasn’t until 1995; when the Bosnian Serbs began to lose ground and N.A.T.O. (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) was prepared top bomb Serb positions that the Serbs called a cease-fire. Bosnia gained its independence towards the end of 1995, after it had endured almost four years of war. Serb, Croat and Bosnian leaders signed a peace agreement in December of 1995.
This meant that by the start of 1996, three of the original provinces had broken away from Serbian control, but the ethnic Albanians in Kosovo also wanted their independence. There was peace in the former Yugoslavia until 1998, when the Kosovan war began.
The Serbs claimed that the part they played in the Kosovan War was simply police action to calm disturbances in their own country and that they did not in fact initiate the war. They can argue this because Kosovo, unlike Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia, was not successful in its bid for independence and was therefore still part of their own country (Serbia). Serbs claim that it was N.A.T.O.’s bombing raids (which were an attempt to prevent Serb action against ethnic Albanians because they feared a repeat of the horrors seen in Bosnia) on Serbian targets, which created the war.
In 1974, Kosovo had been given its own Government and declared a Republic within Yugoslavia by Tito (the President at that time) because 90% of Kosovo’s population were Albanian Muslims and did not wish to live under Serb rule any longer. However in 1989, Serbian control was returned to Kosovo’s police force, law courts and defence. Three hundred Albanians were imprisoned following riots and Slobodan Milosovic (the Serbian and Yugoslav President who returned the Serb power to Kosovo) sent troops, tanks and warplanes into Kosovo to impose order. For eight years Serb run schools were boycotted and the K.L.A. (Kosovo Liberation Army) bombed and raided Serb targets within Kosovo, but other than this there was peace in the province.
In 1998 the numbers of people turning up to protests being held against police brutality grew significantly. By April N.A.T.O. representatives had intervened and begun talks with President Milosovic to try and reduce the Serbian Police violence. Despite this the Serb ‘police’ had carried out attacks on the K.L.A. and massacred civilians by September. This resulted in threats against the Serbs by the United Nations – if the Serbian troops were not moved out of Kosovo, action would be taken against Serbia – U.N. observers moved into Kosovo to ensure their demands were being met. Regardless of this presence mass murder continued (video tapes emerged showing mass graves), as did fighting, and by the start of 1999 thousands of ethnic Albanians began to flee their homes in fear of their lives, choosing to go to refugee camps in Macedonia and Albania. By April the Serbs had forced ¾ of a million Albanians out of their homes and the refugee camps they were escaping to were extremely overcrowded. When President Milosovic refused to negotiate with N.A.T.O., bombing raids were held on Serbia and also on Serbian posts within Kosovo – this started what was to become known as the 80-Day-War. N.A.T.O. continued its bombing raids from March through until June 1999, destroying power stations, factories, Government buildings and Army bases – as well as accidental hits on civilians – a bus and also a column of refugees. Anti-war demonstrations were now being held in Belgrade hostile to Slobodan Milosovic and within a month he had called for an end to N.A.T.O.’s bombing campaign and also agreed to a peace plan that had been drawn up. However Kosovo remained a part of Serbia and did not gain its independence. A cease-fire was called and a peacekeeping force moved into Kosovo, followed by just 50 000 of the pre-war 180 000 ethnic Albanians, who wanted to try and rebuild their homes and lives.
Question 3:
Is lasting peace possible in the independent states of the former Yugoslavia?
In the past, lasting peace in Yugoslavia has only been possible when the country was a dictatorship. This meant that the unity of Yugoslavia was maintained using threats and a strong Secret Police force.
Today, the former Yugoslavia has been broken up into five separate countries (from the formerly united Yugoslavia) – Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Macedonia, and the territory that is still known as Yugoslavia (made up of Serbia and Montenegro). Macedonia was formerly a part of Yugoslavia, but its breakaway was granted as part of the Dayton Agreement (the agreement signed by the leaders of Croatia, Bosnia and Serbia in 1995 to end the Bosnian War).
The likelihood is that Slovenia will stay peaceful, as it is a mainly populated by Slovenes and barely 2% of the population are Serbs. This was part of the reason the Serbs only fought for ten days in their attempt to prevent Slovenia separating from the rest of Yugoslavia. Slovenia has remained peaceful for more than ten years (since the June 1991 breakaway) and no attempts have been made by the Serbs to win Slovenia back nor by anyone else to cause trouble.
Croatia is not likely to be a source of trouble either – it too has remained peaceful since it won independence in January 1992. Although Croatia lost 33% of its land in doing this, there are not problems maintaining peace so this is unlikely to be a source of disturbance. There are very few Serbs living in Croatia, and therefore no reason for Serbia to want it.
Bosnia, however, although it has successfully broken away, still has a mixed population – the Bosnian Serbs want to become part of Yugoslavia once more and be reunited with Serbia, while the Muslims and Croats want Bosnia to keep its independence.
Leaders of all three countries (Bosnia, Serbia and Croatia) signed a pact in 1995 called the Dayton Agreement drawn up to end the fighting in Bosnia. However it was later stated, by the leaders of these countries that they were not happy with this agreement and they felt they had been forced into signing it by countries such as the United States. The President of the Bosnian Serb parliament said “the agreement does not meet even the minimum of our interests” and the Bosnian President said “this is not a just peace, but it is more just than the continuation of war”. Comments such as these show how fragile the peace agreement in Bosnia is. Also there is still bad feeling against the Serbs for the mass murders of thousands of male Muslim civilians. When the Dayton Agreement was drawn up, no decisions had been made as to whether war crime trials would be held or not. Since the declaration of the end of the war, evidence has been gathered against Army leaders General Radovan Karadzic and General Ratko Mladic in order to form a case for genocide and crimes against humanity. The main case is against the now ex-Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic. This trial is now taking place and the outcome of this could have an effect on the peace – the leaders could be imprisoned – a move which could potentially anger Serbs and cause riots or rebellions. If the Serb leaders are freed this is certain to infuriate Muslims and other ethnic groups who believe these men are responsible for the murders of their families and friends – this is almost guaranteed to trigger riots or fighting.
Kosovo failed in its bid for independence despite more than six months of rioting and fighting. It is still a part of Serbia (which is part of Yugoslavia) and therefore under Serbian rule. The ethnic Albanians living in Kosovo still want it to become an independent country, but the Serbs will not allow Kosovo to have its freedom. A peace agreement was needed in 1999 in order to end the fighting. An international peacekeeping force was sent to Kosovo to enforce and ensure the conditions were being kept – the Commander of the force (which is named Kfor) said he believed that they would be necessary to remain in Kosovo for at least 30 years – this is not an encouraging sign that lasting peace in Kosovo is a possibility. Following the peace agreement, refugees were allowed to return to their homes – however, a large number of their homes had been demolished or blown up by retreating Serbs troops. The ethnic Albanians resent the Serbs for this because it means that a large proportion of the refugees have lost everything – many of the Albanians lived with almost their whole family in large houses that had been built up over generations. War crimes have also been discovered (as in Bosnia) and this has reinforced bitterness between Serbs and Albanians. In June 1999 N.A.T.O. (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) estimated that more than 4,000 Kosovan civilians had been killed and that at least 100,000 others were missing – assumed murdered. However, it is thought that many of the bodies have been burnt so the true figure of fatalities may never emerge. The International Criminal Tribunal is currently holding the War Crimes trials against Serb leaders (the same trial which could affect Bosnian peace and the outcome of this is likely to anger either the Serbs or the Albanians (in much the same way as could happen in Bosnia) and this could ruin the existing peace in Kosovo. All of these problems mean that the chances of lasting peace in Kosovo look decidedly doubtful.
Montenegro is still part of Yugoslavia and has not yet tried to gain independence, although an increasing number of its inhabitants are keen to attempt a break away – a move that would not please Serbia. In the past Montenegro had a Royal family – the descendents were against the dictatorship regime President Milosevic created. Although this has now gone, Montenegro may wish to regain its monarchy or rule itself under a democracy. Serbia however wants to continue ruling Montenegro because it has Yugoslavia’s only stretch of coastline – this is a key factor to the country’s economic survival and also for military reasons. The fact that military reasons are part of why Serbia wishes to keep the coastline does not make lasting peace look a promising prospect.
Macedonia became independent as part of the Dayton Agreement which ended the fighting in Bosnia. It (similarly to Kosovo) has a mixed population of Muslims (ethnic Albanians) and Macedonians (who are Christian Orthodox). The Albanians feel they are not treated equally to the Macedonians. Last year (2001) the Albanian National Liberation Army or the NLA attacked towns and villages near the Albanian border in an attempt to overtake them so that they could become part of Albania (which is a separate country). In March 2001 Macedonian forces bombarded Selce, the village in which the NLA has its base. It is these religious and ethnic differences that present a possible threat to Macedonia’s peace. Ethnic differences have been key in the causing of previous wars in other parts of former Yugoslavia. Therefore there is a significant risk of war in Macedonia – but it is more likely to involve Albania than Serbia. However, if there is war between Macedonia and Albania, it is likely that land will be lost to the Albanians. It is probable that Macedonia will become less powerful and then possible that Serbia will wish to regain its control.
Serbia’s leadership remains to be an uncertain situation. In October 2000, 8 days of mass demonstrations and strikes were held in Belgrade in attempt to overthrow President Milosevic. These took place following elections in which opposition leader Vojislav Kostunica won 52% of votes – a result that President Milosevic refused to accept. People felt that Milosevic had not listened to his constituency – one man said it seemed as though he (Milosevic) was running Yugoslavia as if he were the only person in it. President Kostunica told crowds “Democracy has happened in Serbia. Communism is falling”. President Kostunica now runs Serbia under a democracy and this seems to be stable, but whether it will last or not remains to be seen. In the past the former Yugoslavia only remained peaceful when ruled under a dictatorship – led by Tito. However, Tito was a war hero, and brought economy to Yugoslavia, which made the country and its people wealthier than they had ever been before –this made him popular even though he was a dictator. However this was combined with a strong Secret Police and also threats to anyone who disagreed or spoke out against communism and dictatorships.