Another result from the industrial chaos was a rapid increase in unemployment. Unemployment rose to more than 1.6 million by 1978. Source 2, a conservative campaign poster displays the mass unemployment. As Conservative is the opposing the party, the source would be biased and therefore would make out that the Labour government is not working, ‘Labour isn’t working’ and give the message that Britain would be in a better state under the Conservative party. Nonetheless, the poster shows that it was the mass unemployment that led to the downfall of Callaghan’s government and to Thatcher’s electoral victory.
Source 1 agrees with source 3 in the fact that it was the winter of discontent and industrial chaos that led to Margaret Thatcher’s victory. Source 1 says that Thatcher ‘was dining out on public mood’. This suggests that Thatcher was taking advantage of the consequences that resulted from the industrial chaos that was facing Callaghan’s government at the time. Source 1, as a result also agrees that the industrial chaos and the winter of discontent played a major role in deciding Thatcher’s victory in the election on 1979. Source 1 is written by Cole, a political journalist. It is written a few years after the election. This means that Cole had an advantage of looking back on events. The source is also unlikely to be biased because Cole is a journalist for the Observer which is fairly neutral. He therefore has the duty of being impartial and should show both sides of the argument.
However, Source 1 also suggests that it was the long term factors that led to Margaret Thatcher’s victory in 1979 and therefore partially disagrees with Source 3. In particular, it mentions the ‘IMF public spending crisis of 1976.’ Indeed, the IMF crisis led to major cuts in public expenditure which angered the Unionists. It also angered the Left Wing of Callaghan’s party. As a result, the Labour party was split which therefore did not give the public any confidence in their labour government at the time. This would have therefore not favoured the government during the election and as a result, gave Thatcher her opportunity for electoral victory. Source 1 also disagrees with Source 3 in the way that Source 1 states that Margaret Thatcher’s victory was a certainty, ‘Margaret Thatcher knew she was going to win’. On the contrary, Source 3 pursues Thatcher’s victory as an uncertainty stating that Callaghan was personally more popular, ‘Had Callaghan held an election in the autumn of 1978, he might well have won.’ This also suggests that Callaghan’s delay of general election led to Margaret Thatcher’s victory. Furthermore, Callaghan’s delayed approach allowed the opposition towards his party strengthen especially among the trade unions and public workers. The trade unions also became more powerful due to the mass opposition. This mass opposition was caused by job cuts and pay cuts. Many workers were also denied any pay rises which lead to numerous strikes in the so called ‘winter of discontent’. At one point, there were approximately 1.5 million public workers on strike which led caused Britain to go to near enough stand still. It was therefore evident that the Labour government was not running the country successfully. These Strikes would have also been publicise which meant that the rest of Britain who were not public workers could see that Britain needed a change in government as Labour was not dealing with the economically mess that Britain at the time was facing. It was the winter of discontent that led to the conservative majority in the 1979 election. Source 2 also, like Source 1 states that Margaret Thatcher’s electoral victory was a certainty, ‘Labour isn’t working’ and therefore disagrees with Source 3.
It is evident that the winter of discontent of 1978-79 contributed immensely to Thatcher’s victory in the 1979 general election. In fact, the winter of discontent was the centre for the preceding events such as mass unemployment, mass opposition from the trade unions and public workers. However, I do believe that the IMF crisis which caused cuts in public expenditure was a primary cause of Thatcher’s victory as it was a major cause for the industrial chaos in the winter of 1978-89 in the first place.