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Tragedy of miscalculation – Germany could not have intentionally provoked a war as German politicians simply miscalculated by assuming that mobilization did not necessarily mean war. Furthermore, Russia (and not Germany) was the first country to mobilize.
Explanation:
The Schlieffen Plan – The Schlieffen Plan was Germany’s plan to attack France through a neutral country (Belgium). The concept of the plan was to quickly defeat France. However, it was probably a plan drawn out of fear of Encirclement (a fear of being surrounded by hostile powers). Therefore, the Schlieffen Plan should probably be considered as a form of defense. The Germans perhaps were merely being rash in designing a plan which turned out to only raise tension, fear and mistrust in Europe. Furthermore, when the plan was put in motion the Kaiser and Bethmann tried to avoid war and urged the Austrians to negotiate with Serbia on the 30th of July of the year 1914. However, Moltke did not allow this and German troops entered Belgium on the 4th of August. Nevertheless, the fact that an attempt was made to avoid war supports the Germans in that it shows that they did not intend to cause a war.
The Potsdam Conference – The Potsdam Conference was a meeting with the Kaiser and his staff to discuss the possibility of the breakout of a war and thus the European situation. The conclusion made at this conference was that a European war was inevitable due to trouble in the Balkans and increasing tension throughout Europe. Many agreed that, for Germany, it would be an advantage for the war to occur sooner rather than later. However, the Kaiser and his staff probably did not take into account that the other European powers would feel threatened by the conference which had been held and its outcome. The conference was most probably only a defensive stance.
The Blank Cheque – When Germany informed Austria that they could do whatever they pleased as Germany agreed to support them, it was said that Germany had issued a Blank Cheque to Austria. Once again, Germany’s actions may have been interpreted wrongly and harshly. Many believe that Germany wished only to strengthen her ties with her only secure ally. Also, some historians believe that the Kaiser Wilhelm II and Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg believed that a strong line in support of Austria would, in fact, frighten the Russians into remaining neutral. If true, this would simply have been a tragic miscalculation and would show that the Germans actually did not want a major war at all.
Economic Rivalry – It has been argued that the desire for economic mastery of the world caused German capitalists and businessmen to crave war with Britain, who at the time was still ahead of Germany in this race. However, at this same time Germany was already well on its way to economic victory. Many could see that continued peace would bring Germany to the lead devoid of any significant opposition. Therefore, it cannot be said that Germany desired war for the reason that it would bring them to the lead as far as European economy was concerned. Perhaps Germany should not have been so anxious for economic mastery of the world as this made other powers feel threatened and thus increased tension and mistrust, especially throughout Europe.
German restraint of Austria – In 1913 Germany restrained Austria from declaring war on Serbia. This is an extremely good argument in favour of Germany as it shows that Germany could not have deliberately wanted war as Germany would otherwise have allowed Austria to begin a war with Serbia – this would have been the perfect excuse for starting a war in Europe.
Tragedy of miscalculation – This is the theory that was put forward by Australian historian L.C.F. Turner which states that Germany could not have intentionally provoked a war as the fault should be placed on German politicians who simply miscalculated by assuming that mobilization did not necessarily mean war. Furthermore, Russia (and not Germany) was the first country to mobilize. Also, German generals (especially Montke) miscalculated by sticking rigidly to their plans (in this case the Shlieffen Plan) in the belief that this would bring Germany a quick and decisive victory.