The last group in the worldwide bid for power are in my opinion the most threatening, the Islamic Fundamentalists. These organizations for example Al-Qua’ida do not have the extensive funds of the capitalists, nor the solid economy and leadership of communism, but they are the most dangerous because it is next to impossible to abolish them. Capitalism needs but a minor fall in the economy to collapse (wall street crash), if you can damage the great economy of the communist, or make them loose their leaders the system will break down (collapse of Russia). But Islamic fundamentalists cannot be so easily wiped out as they are not dependent on an economy like its counterparts. The organization’s committed members will not stop till they are dead. It is because of this the American and British invasion of Afghanistan has/ will not stop terrorism. It has been proven that insignificant events such as the attack on the World Trade Centre can drive governments to act against its morals and genuinely put fear into the enemy.
These four groups have a long history of bidding for world power, the two capitalist democracies have for a long time stood united despite their slight differences in political beliefs, against their natural enemy the communists. But although it is no recent development, Islamic Fundamentalism has only come to the surface of political conflict in the last decade.
Conflicts between the super powers:
Although the two capitalist giants, America and Britain have been allies for the last century, they have a hostile past.
This really climaxed at the American war of liberation. This involved a professional British army against an inferior American army. The causes of this feud are political, with a disagreement over British taxes being imposed on Americans to pay off the cost of supporting the civil war.
Initially the British were successful, being faced with American regulars in open field battles. After realising defeating Britain in open combat would be impossible, a gorilla war technique was developed, using local militia to pickoff detachments at a time. The British were not used to these tactics, so this along with the disadvantage of the distance of communications, is the main reason America was triumphant. This lead to the American constitution, which is still dominant in American politics today.
After this American politicians followed policies of isolationism, which didn’t begin to break down till post world war one.
The Capitalists Historical nemesis is communism, though the two sides have never actually been in a direct war with each other, only in conflicts described as the cold war.
First we must look at how communism evolved from being rebellious minority parties in Europe to a great power in Russia and later China. Towards the end of the First World War in 1916, the eastern front was crumbling under the Tsar government. The lack of food and high losses due to war brought about revolution, both on the left of the political scale. There were two leading parties, the socialist revolutionists, who’s concerns were simply to feed the people of Russia, and the Bolsheviks, fronted by Lenin, who wanted similarly to feed Russia, exit the war and introduce a Marxist Communist system.
Lenin took power over from the Tsar, and intended to set up a democratic government as Marx envisioned, but the resulting government was divided and week and as a result was dissolved after 24 hours. A treaty with Germany was quickly formed, in which the motherland lost 70% of her farmland. Despite this the agricultural system managed to survive through collective farming.
This removal of privatisation of industry and agricultural lands brought about a civil war, as I mentioned earlier, between the capitalist backed whites and Lenin’s red army. The war was relatively short and resulted in a red army victory; this mainly was due to good leadership and most of all the system of war communism (the most harsh form of communism where everything is taken by the state). In an attempt to prevent further hostilities Lenin made a compromise called the New Economic Policy (NEP), this restored privatisation of light industry, however this was very unpopular with his fellow Bolsheviks and quickly abolished.
Lenin’s predecessor Stalin was far les ideological, believing true Marxist communism was something that needed working towards not just existent, he also was unwilling to compromise, resulting in the great purges that seriously weakened the leadership of the red army. Stalin’s primary concern was the heavy industry of Russia, and its effects on his already weakened army. He decided to put the majority of the workforce into heavy industry. This move paid off when the motherland was invaded by Nazi Germany, it is undoubted that without Stalin’s input, Russia would have been defeated, and D-Day would have been impossible if Germany hadn’t lost two entire armies and half an air force in Russia.
The capitalist democracies (America, England, France etc) were allies of Stalin, purely because they needed him as a strong eastern ally. Once the Second World War was over, a great resentment grew between the two sides, especially between Russia and America, the two most powerful states of the time, America with superior technology, and Russia with the biggest and best conventional army the world has ever known.
Communist China grew from a country in complete anarchy. Once the communists had taken control they set up communal farms like in Russia, these resulted in complete failure, and caused the worlds largest famine. However in true communist style China bounced back, improving her industry, transport and standard of living.
These super giants fought against each other using minor conflicts and supporting opposing sides, almost using the smaller nations as pawns on a global chessboard. The best three examples are: Korea, Vietnam and Afghanistan.
South Korea, supported by America, against North Korea, supported by Russia was fought to a stand still with each side occupying roughly half the country each. Vietnam was the notorious defeat of America against the Vietcong backed by China. Vietnam was a statement to the world of America’s role reversal. Although America defeated the British using gorilla warfare tactics, it has like all other successful capitalist nations, lost its ability to do so, now America specialises in concentrated field warfare, using well equipped and well trained troops. Finally the Russian withdraw from Afghanistan, though it is worth noting that the communists were not defeated, but withdrew support to fund research into nuclear weapons.
Which is where the cold war ends, Russia ruined by the poor leadership of democracy, collapsed and lost its great army, but still retained its many nuclear weapons.
The cold war contributes to the rise of Islamic Fundamentalism. With lands like Afghanistan left in shatters after civil wars resentment of western culture grew to the extent that some groups have declared a Jihad against it. The Islamic fundamentalists see western culture as threatening to their social system in terms of liberal rights such as a secular society, for example America imposing on the religious Muslim society of the eastern world (Allah is the one true god his words are unquestionable thus we should live by them). This would affect things such as sexual equality, liberal rights and law (democracy).
This combined with the crusades of centuries ago and the retaliatory Jihad causing historical and political resentment between Islamic nations and western nations (Britain). For example the relationships between America, Iran and Iraq. America having used Iraq previously to fend off Iranian threat intern attacking Iraq for possessing weapons which America gave them.
Although the vast majority of Muslims would never consider attacking another country the extremist minority have found themselves in an internal struggle against what they see as western democratic oppressors (America, Britain, France etc….). Unfortunately these groups (e.g. Al-Qua’ida) possess no major professional army capable of attacking America. Because of this they will attack America using gorilla (terrorist) tactics (the irony of history).
Although these groups possess weapons of mass destruction they do not have the nuclear capability to impose a MAD system over America or even Russia.
The Prediction
Based upon Leninist Marxist Communists the low abundance of kerosene will result in a crash of the air transport industry. In the trade and tax reliant capitalist countries will suffer considerably. This should result in a collapse in the market and confidence in the currency, similar to that of the Wall Street crash, wiping out the capitalist economies.
Sensing these nations are at their weakest the Islamic fundamentalist will launch a series of individual attacks. These will provoke retaliation against all Muslim nations from America and her capitalist allies in Europe. This mass attack of the professional armies into the east will threaten Russia and communist China. China in particular has been acting in a pre-war fashion, with arms production increased by 1000% in the last decade.
This is where the war will really begin. The capitalist armies, without the economic backing, will walk no only into the great power of the Chinese conventional army, but also into the death-trap of terrorist gorilla war fare. It is highly likely the great armies of the west will quickly begin to crumble under this enormous burden, resulting in them feeling forced to step out of convention, into the realm of nuclear weapons, in hope to abolish the communist economy and annihilate the terrorist threat. However in doing so they will enter into a nuclear war with Russia.
With missiles being launched by the hundreds from both west to east, and east to west, the world would be consumed in nuclear chaos. The result will be either the total annihilation of mankind, or just the modern world, if so there is hope for mankind. I believe there is a form of governing that is capable of handling the burden of restoring the world, as you may have guessed communism.
In a world where all aspects of capitalist society have been abolished and religious faiths tested to and beyond their limits. There would be a place for true communism where there are no divisions in the world and all remaining resources can be used to their full potential. And the best news is that according to Leninist Marxist Communists, this will all happen in about twenty years.
The fact that the Leninist Marxist Communists could well be wrong is almost irrelevant, because in all of the four forms of governments there is an agreement that in some way there will at least be a significant crash in capitalism eventually.
