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Statistics: Survey of Beijing and China during the SARS storm

Extracts from this document...

Introduction

Year 13

Statistics Project:

Survey of China during the SARS storm

Written By:

Junjie Zhou

 MT. ALBERT GRAMMAR SCHOOL

          TABLE OF CONTENTS

Part A: introduction

Planning

General situation of each disaster area.

General situation of the China mainland.

The trend of SARS developed in China mainland.

Part B: investigation

Background

Aim

Hypothesis

Method

Results

1.        Analysis of data

2.    Graphic analysis

Comparison of sample and China mainland

1.        Analysis of data

2.        Graphic analysis

Discussion and conclusion

Part A: Introduction

Planning

Original idea

I want to investigate the relationship between the sample and the China mainland. The relationship between those reflects how does the time affect SARS trend in China.

Objectives

March and April are the most important point in the SARS list.

SARS is a very harmful disease, so the death number is the factor that reflects the situation.

Research

http://www.sars.china.com..cn/

Part B: investigation

Background:

The first SARS event happened on the February of 2003. SARS is a disease, which spread very rapidly.

Guangzhou located at southern part of China, it is the biggest economic and cultural center in southern part. The weather of this location is very hot. And population is big.

...read more.

Middle

26

4,6

75

121.6667

-46.6667

4,7

138

116

22

4,8

135

132.6667

2.333333

4,9

125

131.3333

-6.33333

4,10

134

122.3333

11.66667

4,11

108

121.3333

-13.3333

4,12

122

143.6667

-21.6667

4,13

201

146.6667

54.33333

4,14

117

156.6667

-39.6667

4,15

152

128.6667

23.33333

4,16

117

151.3333

-34.3333

4,17

185

141

44

4,18

121

138.3333

-17.3333

4,19

109

133

-24

4,20

169

150.6667

18.33333

4,21

174

153.3333

20.66667

4,22

117

142

-25

4,23

135

125

10

4,24

123

130

-7

4,25

132

157.3333

-25.3333

4,26

217

172.3333

44.66667

4,27

168

164.6667

3.333333

4,28

109

167.3333

-58.3333

4,29

225

180.6667

44.33333

4,30

208

Because the SARS spread irregular, the individual seasonal effect does not reflects the trend.

For more Further charts to show the trend:

image00.png

The three points moving mean shows the data has a strong positive correspond distribution. That means the SARS spread very rapidly and killing more people in every individual day. It is the reasons cause the climax occurs on May.

For the results obtained, I arrange the death number into different interval and get different frequency. Showed below:

Interval

Frequency

0-10

0

11~20

1

21~30

0

31~40

1

41~50

3

51~60

2

61~70

4

71~80

3

81~90

6

91~100

5

101~110

8

111~120

5

121~130

4

131~140

6

141~150

2

151~160

3

161~170

2

171~180

1

181~190

1

191~200

0

201~210

2

211~220

1

221~230

1

After calculated:

image01.png

Standard deviation is equal to 45.1447

NOTE:

Standard deviation

45.14457

Mean

111.0328

Mode

117

Maximum

225

Minimum

18

Median

108

For these data, I can see that it has a normal distribution. In order to see it clearly, I show it as a chart below:

image02.png

I am 95% confidant that the value lie within the range of 99.7037~~122.369.image03.png

Now we can obtain the normal distribution clearly. In these 61 days (March and April)

...read more.

Conclusion

Minimum

Median

Range

225

135

83

18

108

117

217

134

83

18

104

113

Discussion: In contrast, no matter the population or the sample showed the SARS spread rapidly and the death number is increasing every day. In fact, the SARS was developing with time, when the weather getting hot, it is getting easier for a disease to spread. Meanwhile, March and April are the ending of spring and the beginning of summer in China. As the weather getting hot, SARS in China getting faster to spread and more people dying for it. Till the May and June, we can predict that the SARS will get to its climax by looking at the trend of SRAS showed above and the hot weather.

Conclusion: Of course, the government has controlled the SARS. SARS will never ever occur any more. However, if we use our Statistics skills to research it, we could know the trend of SARS long times ago. In other words, Statistics predict the feature of SARS. In brief, I had predict SARS had a increasing trend on March and April, however, if I get more currently data about SARS, I can also predict the SARS will be destroy on July by using my Statistics skills…….

...read more.

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