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Exam question Explain why the pattern of population change in some countries does not follow that predicted by the demographic transition model. The Demographic transition model is a model used to explain the process of shift from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates as part of the economic development of a country. It is based on the development of the UK. The DTM is based on a generalized picture of population change over time based on European studies assuming that all countries will go through the stages 1 to 4. It believes population will change due to birth rates and death rates. ...read more.


* During stage four there are both low birth rates and low death rates. As the large group born during stage two ages, it creates an economic burden on the shrinking working population. Death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases due to low exercise levels and high obesity and an aging population in developed countries. This pattern has been the case for many developed countries but in some countries however war, disease, cultural reasons and migration have either reversed, caused a stage to be skipped or made a country enter an unpredicted stage. For instance in Botswana, an LEDC, the country appears to be going backwoods rather than forwards this is due to does AIDS; fully 94 percent of all HIV cases are found in underdeveloped countries, therefore mortality has increased the mortality rates. ...read more.


In MEDC's, such as the UK, migration has had a huge impact on birth rates, this makes birth rates rise, the demographic transition model does not take migration into consideration as stage 4 predicts that birth and death rates remain low, fluctuating to give a steady population however due to migration the UK's population is rising. The DTM also only allowed for 4 stages however some European countries such as Germany have entered what is known as stage 5, in this stage birth rate has fallen below replacement level allowing population to decrease. This again is not predicted by the DTM. ?? ?? ?? ?? ...read more.

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