Invisible Primaries, USA.

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A. How important is the invisible primary in the presidential election campaign?

The invisible primary is the period in between where candidates first announce their intentions to stand for presidency and when the first primary ballots are cast. The invisible primary generally consists of heavy fund raising (in excess of $100 million) as well as opinion polls, used by the media, to gauge who the front runners for the election are. Generally speaking, those who are able to raise the most money are going to appear as the strongest candidates and as a result, will be able to command greater donation power from those who are reserved until they have a clearer idea of who may win.

The creation of informal and semi formal networks is crucial. Democrat, Hillary Clinton didn’t announce her 2008 presidential intentions until after the 2006 mid-term elections, but her team had already begun to build a national fundraising committee to rival the Democratic National Committee, which was perceived to be unpredictable. The front loading of the primaries and caucuses means that candidates need to build up a significant amount of capital during the invisible primary ‘process’. Front loading has rendered it very difficult to raise capital once the actual primaries commence. In 1996 and 2000, Pat Buchanan and John McCain couldn’t defeat the financial strength of Dole and Bush, despite winning in New Hampshire.

Due to the fluctuation in the polls, the media really do play a significant roll in the momentum that the candidates have as they enter the real primaries. The value of polls though, is limited. In September of 2005, pollsters asked both Republicans and Democrats who might seek the presidency in 2008. Giuliani, Rice and McCain all polled over 20% for the Republicans, and for the Democrats, Clinton received over 40%, whereas her main rivals, Edwards, Gore and Kerry achieved only between 10 and 15%.

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The invisibly primary can be used as a platform for candidates to give their name’s recognition, funds and momentum. This is well

The role of the primary is to, in theory; make the process of selecting party candidates, more democratic, but in reality, the real primaries is now merely to confirm the winner of the invisible primaries. The invisible primary is now no longer invisible and in reality, has extended the start of the presidential election to instantly after the mid-terms.

B. The advantages of primary elections vastly outweigh their disadvantages in the selection of each ...

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