It is unlikely for us to worry about genetic enhancement is inevitable because there is skepticism arises from three sources: futurology and its limits, the science of behavioral genetics, and human nature itself.
Kevin Hoi Fung, Tse
Philosophy 25
6/11/03
It is unlikely for us to worry about genetic enhancement is inevitable because there is skepticism arises from three sources: futurology and its limits, the science of behavioral genetics, and human nature itself.
Most people agree that genetic enhancement is inevitable. However, the technological predictions have always been wrong. We know this is true that, for instance, the experts have predicted that by the turn of the century we would live in domed cities, commute by jet-pack, and clean our home with nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners wielded by robot maids. After that, we were promised the paperless office, interactive television, and the Internet refrigerator. Not only the fact that these developments have not yet happened, but most of them will never happen. From these invisible predictions, we could hardly believe if the prediction about the “designers babies” is going to happen. The reason why technological predictions are usually wrong is because futurologists make prediction as current progress can be extrapolated indefinitely. They underestimate how much has to go right for a development to change of life, as it takes a large amount of discoveries, with the psychological and sociological imponderables that make people adopt some invention. This is about the same situation of the genetic enhancement from the fact that the development is just in initial period, but it is expected to become truth if research proceeds on its current course. On the other hand, futurologists tend to focus their fantasies on the benefits of a new technology, whereas actual users weigh both the benefits and the costs. It raises a question if people are willing to spend huge amount of money or take the risks to have a “designer baby”.