The Demographic Transition Model
Introduction In reviewing the material for this presentation, one of the principal references given for the topic of "Models" was that of Livingstone 1992, which above all else gives a good historical account of the Quantitative Revolution, and places subjects such as those of modelling into some context. To go further than this, however, will be to go over ground that has already been covered in a previous presentation. We have also already established that the use of a model serves to provide a broad framework of explanation and which should contain relatively few variables and centred upon a range of common denominators within the field of study. In essence, to construct any model based upon too complicated a set of hypotheses and with too broad a range of variables defeats the very object and purpose, which is simply to establish a framework within which to work. A well constructed model with a firm methodology, a clear hypothesis and with a limited range of variables should enable the predictive qualities of it to become clearer. To this end, we have chosen and agreed NOT to cover or regurgitate old ground, but rather to build upon it by introducing the concept of models within our discipline using three examples of them. Whilst acknowledging that there are many other models of equal stature, our approach will, we hope, will assist in giving a clearer understanding
The Demographic Transition Model.
The Demographic Transition Model Q: A summary of the Demographic Transition Model and show its disadvantages and Advantages The demographic transition model shows the relationship between Births,Deaths and population increase or decrease over a period of time in a single diagram.The graph shows different situations in through out the world due to differences in technological and medical advancement. The first stage of the model is typical of least economically developed countries,charecterised by high birth and death rates resulting in minimal population growth.High death rates are due to famine which is widespread in Africa and most Middle East countries.War contributes to the hunger and starvation the population as people are flee the cities and farms to hide in the mountains where food supplies cannot reach them and there is poor hygiene facilities,no clean water and limited medical infrastructure.The diet is minimal and thus an outbreak of malnutrition wipes out infants at young age and the poor living conditions would result in diseases such as cholera and kwashiorkor which take their toll on the population .Deaths are high among children and most would die at birth.Poor contraception methods result in many though fatal births due to sexually transmitted diseases such as Aids, Herpes, Gonorrhea etc Many children die in infancy and people tend to produce more
How relevant is the Demographic Transition Model?
How relevant is the Demographic Transition Model? On first looking at the Demographic Transition Model, it seems very appropriate. It is very similar to the models of the European countries and most countries are currently somewhere within the model and its four stages. On closer studying, it is evident that the model has many flaws and the countries currently placed in stages one and two might not follow the trends into stages three and four. When the model was created, it was based mainly on MEDCs such as the European countries and the USA. Many of these countries closely follow the model, but are now progressing further into a newly created fifth stage, which shows a natural decrease in population. This was not predicted when the model was created, which shows a lack of anticipation and planning! From the model, one can deduce that a country will go through the stages during an even timescale. There are many exceptions to this, for example, Singapore. Singapore is only about 37 years old. When it became an independent nation, it was probably already half-way through stage two. Since it is a global hub, it has developed very quickly, almost bypassing stage three. It is now towards the end of stage four and moving on to the fifth stage. This model relies on the fact that, as time passes, the countries will get richer. This was true for the MEDCs of today, as, in the 19th
What are the main stages of the Demographic transition model?
Introduction The demographic model as you may guess is a model, in other words it is a certain amount of data taken raw and transformed into something which people may understand. In other words it is an oversimplification of reality. The demographic transition model has taken data from industrialised countries such as England, France and many more in order to see what similarities there are between countries and deciding what stage other countries are going through at this moment in time. It is divided into 4 stages, The first being the most primitive and fourth as being the most developed even though there may be a fifth stage What are the main stages of the Demographic transition model? Stage 1 Stage one of the demographic transition model is the most primitive of the stages where there is a high fluctuating birth and death rate. Because of this there is no great population growth. These countries or even tribes have very basic living standards such as those in the Amazon rainforest where they hardly have any education, medicaments or birth rates such that population is based on food supply, health of tribe members etc. Other factors involved are no family planning therefore many children or because of the faith of the people which may look at large families as a sign of verility etc. Stage 2 In this stage of the demographic transition model there are a lot of births,
The Demographic Transition Model or Population Cycle
The Demographic Transition Model or Population Cycle Stage 1 - High birth rate and high death rate When birth rate and death rate are birth high (about 35 per 1000) then the natural increase is very low, giving only a small population growth or no change at all. Examples of populations at Stage 1 are rare today because of the spread of modern medicines and new farming techniques. Perhaps only a few remote tribes in the Amazon forest, which have little contact with the outside world, are still in Stage 1. The UK was at Stage 1 before the Industrial Revolution up to about 1750. Reasons for a high death rate include: . Diseases such as Cholera and Bubonic Plague. 2. Famine and Malnutrition. 3. Lack of clean water and sewerage facilities. 4. Lack of medical care and drugs. Stage 2 - The birth rate remains high and the death rate begins to fall At the start of stage 2 both birth rate and death rate remains high. Reasons for a high birth rate are: . Economic - many children mean more workers in the field. 2. Social - No birth control or family planning. Couples have large families in the hope that a few will survive childhood. More children to support the parents in old age. Children are regarded as a sign of virility in some cultures. 3. Political - Governments in Muslim and Catholic countries encourage large families and do not provide much education about family
Why does the demographic transition concept continue to occupy a central position in the analysis of change in human populations?
Why does the demographic transition concept continue to occupy a central position in the analysis of change in human populations? Population can be defined as the total number of people living in that particular country at any one time. Population figures change from year to year due to increases and decreases of people within that country. These fluxes can be determined by a change in birth and death rates and also encompasses immigration and migration in or out of a country. If a particular country has more births than deaths the population will increase this is also known as natural increase. However, if I country experiences more deaths than births the population will decrease also known as natural decrease. Many countries worldwide have experienced dramatic changes in population this change in population is known as the demographic transition. A demographic transition model can be used to view the changing population of a country over a period of time. The demographic transition model describes a sequence of changes over a period of time in relationships between birth rates and death rates and overall population change. On a demographic transition model it displays both birth rates and death rates. The birth rate of a country is the number of live births per 1,000 population per year, and the death rate is the number of deaths per 1,000 population per year. There are 4
Explain the theory of the demographic transition. Outline the various ways in which demographic change has occurred in contemporary developing countries.' Beside its custom of experiential investigation, springing from the insights of John Graunt
'Explain the theory of the demographic transition. Outline the various ways in which demographic change has occurred in contemporary developing countries.' Beside its custom of experiential investigation, springing from the insights of John Graunt, demography has built a considerable body of theoretical knowledge. The word 'demography' is a combination of two Greek words literally meaning 'description of the people'. Its intention is to aid description, to recognize patterns, to explain developments and eventually, to predict them. Demography's predominant hypothetical preoccupation in twentieth century was the theory of the demographic transition. Despite its name, the demographic transition is not so much a theory as a set of generalizations from observed trends. The descriptive and predictive value of transition theory is quite scarce, but it is the direct forebear of some of the modern discipline's main theoretical interests. In this essay, I will be explaining the theory of the demographic transition. In stage one, which is known as the pre-transition stage, death rates fluctuated from high to extreme while birth rates were high but less changeable. Typically there were 30 or more births and deaths annually person thousand people, and growth was low. Times of sustained population growth did occur in the past, as in Europe in the Middle Ages, but epidemics, famines and
T o what extent does the Demographic Transition Model provide a reliable and accurate representation of Europe's demographic past? What are the main problems of measuring the chief variables in the model?
T o what extent does the Demographic Transition Model provide a reliable and accurate representation of Europe's demographic past? What are the main problems of measuring the chief variables in the model? The demographic transition is a term that describes the complex process of passage from disorder to order and from waste to economy. Demographic growth takes place with varying degrees of intensity within a fairly large strategic place, therefore rates of growth or decline can lead a population to rapid expansion or extinction. During the past two centuries western populations have passed through all phases of the trajectory of the modern demographic cycle. In Europe population has multiplied fourfold, life expectancy has increased from 25-35 to 75-80, the average number of children per woman has declined from 5 to less than two and both fertility and mortality rates have declined from 30-40 per 1000 to approximately 10 per 1000. Thus significantly altering the demographic structure. In this essay I intend to discuss the extent to which the Demographic Transition Model provides a reliable and accurate representation of Europe's demographic past. Demographers describe the history of population growth in Western Europe in terms of a process of "demographic transition," a model that charts three aspects of population growth. The model describes how the separate factors that
Describe how the total population changes throughout the different stages of the demographic transition model
Describe how the total population changes throughout the different stages of the demographic transition model (6 marks) In stage one we can see that the total population is very low of around five million and this is due to high death rates, low life expectancy and high infant mortality rates. The birth rate is also very high however the number of people dying is obviously slightly quicker or more prolific than birth rates. The low infant mortality rates which affect total population are because the children are sent to work at a very young age to support their families and this can cause life threatening illnesses as the stress maybe to much for the infant to bear. The places in stage one are likely to be remote communities which survive in a sustainable way and live off the land mostly forcing more physical hard labour work. Stages 2 and 3 are slightly more developed probably because there are more people and slightly more advances in something like technologies or services. However these countries still show that there is a severe lack of control over population. There is a rapid rise in the total population from six to twenty million that is a difference of fourteen million people in stage two. In stage three the stage that represents an NIC(Newly industrialised country) as the total population is still rising rapidly as birth rates fall rapidly and death rates fall
Population ( Demographic Transition Model) and Q and A on rivers
Population Over time the world’s population has changed, due to migration and natural changes. At present there are 7billion people in the world Population indicators Fertility: this is the number of live births per 100 women aged 15-49 in 1yr. It is also known as the average number of children a woman in a country population has. A number 2.1 means the population is replacing itself It is affected by a range of different factors e.g. In LEDCs such as Niger, Angola children are an economic asset due to dependence on them from their parents in activities such as farming so therefore these countries have a high fertility rate. Mortality: this simply means death and is measured by indicators such as death rate and infant mortality. Infant mortality is the number of deaths of children under the age of 1 per 1000 births per year. It is very pivotal in understanding socio-economic development of a country as high infant mortality is usually linked to essential services such as healthcare Death Rate is the number of death per 1,000 per people in 1yr. In countries such as the UK, Germany and Japan where there is a greater and better provision of healthcare the death rate tends to be low Population Structures Demographic Transition Model: the DTM pictured Fig 1, was developed by Warren Thompson describes how the population of a country changes through time. It outlines 5
