Review of Beating the Business Cycle

Authors Avatar

                                                  Review of Beating the Business Cycle

An Evaluation of

Beating the Business Cycle

by Lakshman Achulthan and Anirvan Banerji

October 21, 2004

 

   

Beating the Business Cycle by Authors Lakshman Achulthan and Anirvan Banerji provides an intricate description of how the ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) forecast economic growth and market turns so business managers and individuals alike can predict and profit from future changes in the economy. Using approximately 100 objective indexes and economic indicators such as stock price, imports, exports, foreign trade, manufacturing and real estate the ECRI is well known for their accuracy in predicting economic changes.  To highlight a few of their successes the ECRI was able to predict the U.S. recession of 2001 and 1991 approximately six months before economists did.  They were also reputed for predicting a weak recovery in 2002. (cover page)  The following is a list of the ECRI’s record of previous predictions.  Achuthan and Anirvan’s contribution will broaden your understanding of today’s business cycle and enlighten you of its effects on financial markets and the U.S. economy.

Join now!

Beginning with discussions on economic booms and recessions the authors mention that when classical econometricians failed at accurately predicting the ups and downs in business activity, the ECRI was able to predict these turns by using economic indicators derived from 80 years or business cycle research.  Their research was passed down from legendary business scholar Geoffrey H. Moore.  Moore was referred to by The Wall Street Journal as the “the father of leading indicators”.  Moore was also the protégé of historical econometrician icons Wesley C. Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns and his career spanned over six decades.  These gentlemen ...

This is a preview of the whole essay