The Ripple Effects in Biological Terms
During an El Nino cycle there are many biological changes. Due to a depressed thermocline there is less photosynthetic activity resulting in a decrease in the primary life forms that form the beginning of the food chain. The warmer waters that are brought by these changing cycles hold less dissolved oxygen forcing fish to go deeper or venture elsewhere. Due to a lack of data during El Nino occurrences it is not fully known if fish populations are depleted solely due to exposure to El Nino. But whenever an El Nino does occur there is a loss or decrease in fish population and oceanic population. This leads to a vast change in the food chain of the ocean. A decrease in fish growth and reproductive success has been observed by many surveys in coastal waters. Fishes have a certain temperature above or below which they cannot function properly. In most cases its 5 deg above or below their normal temperature. El Nino disrupts the temperature in the atmosphere as well as the sea or ocean bodies hence creating an imbalance in the adaptation of sea life. The easterly winds that blow along the Ecuador and the southeasterly winds that blow along the Peru and Ecuador coasts both tend to drag surface water with them. (Refer to dig 2). The Earth’s rotation then deflects the resulting surface currents northward in the Northern Hemisphere and southward in the Southern Atmosphere. The surface waters are therefore deflected away from the equator in both directions and away from the coastline. When the surface water moves away, colder nutrient-rich water comes up from below to replace it. This is known as upwelling. This nutrient rich water is the beginning of the food chain as phytoplankton establishes themselves in these waters. When El Nino disrupts the temperature the phytoplankton is unable to grow and absorb sunlight because of the raging waters and most of the leaves are discarded due to the pressure and the force with which the waves move back and forth. The biggest ecological effect of an El Nino is the collapse of the nutrient supply off the coast of Peru. “In 1970, the coastal strip along Peru and Ecuador supplied half of the world’s landing of all fish, by weight. This was the world’s largest fishery, and was dominated by the anchovy in astonishing numbers (Rita Thiveon Mullin, 1999)”. This loss of fish is not only a local but a global issue as well. With the loss of these species there is a significant damage to the medical field where some are used for medical purposes. For example Cod is used to provide vitamins and proteins to the human body. The warm water allows unusual species to migrate and therefore you man find many species in certain areas where they were no existent before.
The Ripple Effects in terms of Economy
Over the years, several NASA missions have studied the effects associated with El Nino. Initial efforts at mapping sea surface temperatures and cloud cover were conducted using two different satellites in 1978. These satellites greatly increased the amount of readily available information. Since that time there have been many improvements made. The number of channels was increased from four to five. These channels allow the instruments to view in different parts of the electromagnetic visible and infrared spectrum. In the near future, small NASA missions known, known as Earth Probes, are planned to address specific Earth science investigations that will improve are knowledge of El Nino. Also NASA has initiated a "Pathfinder Program" to make higher quality data available from past and current missions. These efforts will lead up to the Earth Observing System (EOS). “With the launch of the EOS satellites starting in 1998, we will have the means to collect and C the most comprehensive data set ever acquired for the development of coupled models” (Ross Couper-Johnston, 2000) . This data set will increase our understanding of the causes and effects of such large scale ocean-atmospheric phenomena as an El Nino. How ever the stock decreased slightly in 1971 due to over fishing. They declined enormously in 1972 due to a major El Nino. Then again as a result of another El Nino only 2 years later, the stocks fell below the level at which they could reproduce themselves. “In 1975, the Fisheries Ministry of Peru declared a moratorium on fishing. Despite the dramatic action of the Fisheries Minister, the damage appears to have been permanent and the stocks have never recovered and will never recover” (Ross Couper-Johnston, 2000). The lack of fish has led to a huge number of lay offs in the meat packaging companies and the import and export business leading to an unimaginable unemployment rate. Due to such a high unemployment rate the economy is unstable and the country is under huge debt. To stabilize this revenue of fish went up locally making it harder for people with low income and no work to earn a living and feed their families sufficiently.
Effects of El Nino Locally
As in most developing countries in the tropics, the economy (food production in particular) is very sensitive to changes in the climate. Peru is an excellent example of how short term El Nino forecasts can be valuable. The year to year changes between above and below normal sea surface temperatures along the coast of Peru produce many different local impacts. Warm years tend to be unfavorable for fishing and some have caused widespread flooding along the coast. Cold years are welcomed by fisherman, but not by farmers because they frequently have been marked by drought or crop failures. Such cold years usually follow strong El Nino years. Peruvians have reason to be concerned about El Nino events and both extremes of the El Nino cycle. El Nino recurs at irregular intervals ranging from two years to a decade, and no two events are ever exactly alike. The 1982-83 El Nino caught scientists by surprise because unlike previous El Nino’s it was not preceded by a period of stronger easterlies on the equator. The economic impact due to this was large. The Ecuador and Peru fishing industries suffered heavily when their anchovy harvest failed and their sardines unexpectedly moved south into Chilean waters. Heavy winds and rainfall with speed of above 100 km/hr terrorize the locals of Peru and causing immense damage. Flooding strips the land of its top soil and its nutrients, which pose a large problem, as vast amount of land which once grew a variety of crops are now wasted and are unsuitable to be farmed again. Over fishing and the depletion of the specie from the Peruvian waters caused unemployment with in the country dramatically. Elsewhere in the world the phenomenon caused billions in damage around the world from which countries are still rebuilding themselves. Heavy flooding in India, uncontrollable bush fires in Australia like the one that burns in Sydney now killed hundreds of thousands of people. There fore it is safe to say that the effects of El Nino is not confined to a specific place and affects only a selected country. It affects anyone and every one in the world.
Conclusion
The enormous advances that have been made by the scientists regarding the predictions of El Nino enables people in the developing countries to significantly reduce the risks inherent from farming and provide an opportunity to break free from the cycle of being victimized every time their growing season fails. On the other hand, more and more people are being shifted into precarious conditions, exposing them to even greater risks. For example people off the coast of Peru must be ready at anytime to relocate themselves and their families and cattle to a safer place as soon as they are warned of an El Nino like phenomenon or tropical storms. This means they loose the land they were farming, the crops they harvested is of no use now because they will not be able to cut all of them and sell them, well at least not all of it so they are running a loss in income and sometimes even loose their lives. “If recent El Nino’s are anything to go by, the great human tragedies and the social unrest that have occurred repeatedly through out El Ninos are set to continue. The most recent El Nino in 1997-98 caused havoc world wide. It caused 33 billion worth of damage some renewable some that are now extinct, like the nutrients off the coast of Peru. The world is still recovering from this blow. In some countries like India and Australia lives were lost in the thousands due to flash flood and bush fires. The ripple effects are still being felt around the world in geographical as well as human terms. Tropical countries have the most to gain from El Nino prediction but other non-tropical countries such as Japan and the United States require a more accurate prediction of El Nino. However some questions still boggle the minds of scientists like the global warming that’s taking place now, a good example would be the winter in Canada this year. Other questions about the sea level still boggle the minds of scientists and no one knows just how soon a definite answer will be achieved to pin point El Nino and its causes and a solution to stop it from occurring.