Impact of alliances
- Reduced the flexibility of great powers’ response to crises
- Franco-Russian Alliance’s impact on German military planning in the form of the Schlieffen plan- lack of a flexible response
- However- case of Italy refusing to support allies, Britain rejected appeals to make plain her intent to support them
- Between 1908 and 1913 the alliance system was far from rigid- Russia and Austria Hungary expressed disappointment with the support from their allies in Balkan affairs, France derived little sympathy from Russia in 1911, Britain was becoming disenchanted with Russia’s disregard for agreement for agreement reached in 1907 over Persia
- Reflection of insecurity and contribution towards it
- French fears of Germany made her seek an alliance with Russia- its conclusion however, increased Germany’s sense of insecurity (encirclement)
- Alliance system produced ‘international anarchy’ which turned Europe into a powder magazine needing only a spark to ignite it
- However, this state had been a fact of life since 1870 during which Europe enjoyed forty years of peace, and the alliance system could be viewed as a restraining influence on the policies of sovereign states
The Times “The division of the Great powers is a twofold check upon inordinate ambitions or sudden outbreak of race hatred”
A.J.P Taylor “The war was caused by the breakdown of the alliance system rather than its existence. (however, weakness in this argument that for Russia they regained their strength by 1911, war did not break out in 1905
SO: “It might be more logical to conclude that war resulted from Germany’s determination to alter the existing balance in her favour either in an expansionistic, offensive sense or as a defensive reaction to encirclement and the recovery of Russian power.”
- Why did Concert fail in 1914 despite mediation conferences? –Germany rejected all, less for her own wish for war than her desire to shield Austria Hungary for the kind of compromises that such conferences often resulted in
German Chancellor “Germany could not bring Austria Hungary’s dealings before a European tribunal”
Also…Russia’s mobilization took place at the same time and so, impossible to reject because Germany’s chance of victory depended on surprise and speed
Colonial Rivalry/imperialism NOT CONVINCING
its political impact…
- Created hostility- Franco-German clashes over Morocco,
- However- Imperialism disputes had been sorted out without war- early July 1914 Anglo-German relations were good, an agreement extremely favourable to Germany having just been reached over a possible partition of Portuguese colonies in Africa
Nationalism
- Nationalist revival in France following Agadir crisis of 1911
- Trend fostered by popular press and by right wing pressure grps such as Pan-German League and Action Francais – vigorous assertion of national interests deemed a sign of the nation’s health and vitality
Older generation of historians believed that the primary cause of the war in 1914 was the fact that political frontiers did not correspond to national groupings in 1914
Economic Rivalry HIGHLY DOUBTFUL
- Desire for economic mastery of the world- Germany
However… One German industrialist remarked in 1913, “Give us three or four more years of peace and Germany will be the unchallenged economic master of Europe”
- In general, Britain’s commercial links with Germany were growing closer from 1904 to 1914, with both sides establishing valuable markets in the other country and creating greater interdependence in manufacturing processes
Capitalism
- Industrialists had a vested interest in provoking war to increase their profits or ruin their competitors
- Capitalist economic pressures behind imperialist rivalries- main cause of 1914 war
- HOWEVER do not take into account complexities of the world of international trade and finance
- Even armament manufacturers such as Krupp or Vickers Armstrong, the so called merchants of death, profited from gov armaments programmes in peacetime, but they had markets overseas which they lost during wartime
- International bankers best interests were with political stability- financiers were not likely to favour crises which put their investments at risks- (1914, fears in London of a complete financial collapse)
Short term causes
The Killing in Sarajevo
German decision for war//backing of Austria
- World domination (Fritz Fischer); Encirclement theory; frighten Russians into remaining neutral
Confusion about the British position
Russia backing Serbia
- First to order general mobilization- afraid Germany and Austria would control the Dardanelles thereby strangling the Russian economy; Mother of all Slavs; divert attention from domestic problems
- Austria more blame? Should have anticipated Russia’s decisions
Conclusion…
L..C.F Turner “Germans did not deliberately provoke a war, it was caused by a tragedy of miscalculation”
- Austrians thought Russia would not support Serbia, Russia and Germany miscalculated by assuming that mobilization would not necessarily mean war
Morocco Crisis 1905-1906
- Attempt by Germans to test the 1904 Entente Cordiale with its understanding that France would recognize Britain’s position in Egypt in return for British approval of a possible French occupation of Morocco
- International conference at Algeciras – Germany announcing that it would assist the Sultan of Morocco for their independence
- Britain, Russia, Italy and Spain supported French demand- diplomatic defeat for Germany
British agreement with Russia 1907
- Seen as Germany as hostile move
- Actually a logical step, since Russia and France had signed an alliance in 1894
- Germans saw it as a confirmation that Britain, France and Russia were planning to encircle them
Bosnia Crisis 1908
“The Russians, still smarting from their defeat by Japan, dared not risk a war without the support of their allies”- Norman Lowe = role of alliance system not convincing
- No support for Serbia- French drew back, British only protested
The Agadir Crisis 1911
- French troops occupied Fez, the Moroccan capital, to put down a rebellion against the Sultan
- Germans sent the boat Panther hoping to pressurize the French into giving Germany compensations, but British worried Agadir would be a naval base which threatened Britain’s trade routes
In order to strengthen France’s resistance, Lloyd George, in his famous Mansion House speech, warned that Britain would not stand by and be taken advantage of where ‘her interests are vitally affected’
- Germany recognized protectorate for two strips of territory in French congo
- Germany public opinion became intensely anti-British
The First Balkan War 1912
- Serbia, Greece, Montenegro and Bulgaria attacked Turkey
- Serbs wanted Albania because of outlet to sea, but Austrians refused and wanted to make it an independent state
Second Balkan War 1913
- Bulgarians wanted Macedonia, and attacked Serbia who took most of it- Greece, Rumania and Turkey rallied to support Serbia (Treaty of Bucharest forfeited their gains)
Assassination of Austria Archduke Franz Ferdinand – Sarajevo 28 June 1914
Germany responsibility for the war
- Traditional view “All the gov were responsible for the tension which came to a head in July 1914. But they were not equally responsible for the fatal turn of events- for which Germany was culpable
- Hinsley “German gov was mainly responsible for the war on account of decisions btw 1904 and 1913 than on account of anything after Sarajevo”
- Fischer – aggressive pursuit of Weltpolitik soured international relations (expansionist policy to resolve domestic crisis, ‘brisk jolly war’ to prevent SPD, the socialists, from threatening the gov); fear of encirclement
- Fischer- German Chief of Staff believed in July 1914 that ‘a moment so favourable from a military point of view may never occur again)
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Fischer- Mitteleuropa prog, expand power base by extending territories
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Fischer- intention for war, pressure on Austria Hungary and blank cheque on July 5th; securing Britain’s neutrality and presenting Russia as aggressor; pressure of the military for a rapid transition from mobilization to the declaration of war
Merit of his views
= welds into a coherent whole the aims of German foreign policy, able to explain why war began
Disadvantages
= Before 1914 German foreign policy seems contradictory and lacking in clear aims, Weltpolitik more of a patriotic umbrella than a magic wand
= German gov deciding on war as early as 1912 doubtful- meeting was irregular, Imperial Chancellor not present, had little significance on policy of the next year
Responsibility of the other powers
Austria
- Had wanted war- Austro Hungarian Chief of Staff General Franz Freiherr Conrad von Hotzendorff was virtually screaming for war years before Sarajevo, and after the assassination an influential group of ‘young Aehrenthalians’ in the Vienna Foreign Office, among them Count Hoyos, were equally persuaded that the Habsburg Monarchy could only be saved from disintegration by war
- Bethmann’s September Prog
- Berchtold “Inaction meant the renunciation of our Great Power position”
- Domestic problems? – F.R Bridge “The situation is hopeless, but not serious” domestic chaos had became an occupational disease
- Contributed to July crisis by lengthy delays in responding to Sarajevo (a rapid punitive strike might have changed things_ German chancellor “They seemed to need an eternity to mobilize”_prompt action might have kept action localized
- Declaration of war a mere 48 hours after ultimatum, would not halt military operations even after Kaiser suggested this even though negotiations were scheduled with Russia on 30 July
Russia
- Russian policy was provocative
- Russia was unable to restrain or control Slav nationalism even though it endangered peace and stability
- Russia the first to mobilize- influenced decision to reject Austrian ultimatum
France
- ‘nationalist revival’ after 1911 more a stiffening of morale rather than aggressive anti-Germany stance
- ‘Blank cheque’ support to Russia in 1912 more of the work of ambassador in St Petersburg than official policy
- Alsace Lorraine not a sufficient reason
Britain
- Clearer statement from Britain to support France might have exercised restraint from Berlin
- Naval talks with Russia in 1914 convinced German chancellor ring of encirclement was not complete- Grey’s false denial destroyed his credibility
Balkan problems
Nationalism in the Balkan states as an important example of the aggressive tendency of European nationalism by 1914
- By the 1900s, however, Britain was no longer obsessed with the fear of Russia taking Constantinople and was prepared to discuss the issue of the Straits, especially after the signing of the Entente in 1907