Long term causes of the war

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Two main interpretations:

  1. Rise in international tension, impersonal forces etc. were the real causes of the war and the July Crisis was merely the inevitable manifestation
  2. Joll’s concept of ‘concentric circles’, where earlier situations and policies, together with impersonal forces, contributed to the frame of mind in which decisions were taken in 1914

Long term causes of the war

Quarrel between Austria and Serbia   SPARK

The Rise of Germany

The New Kaiser and World Power// WELTPOLITIK

  • Harmed Germany’s relations with other powers, and created sense of frustration amongst leaders and public of its meager achievements- had not attained position in world affairs that their economic strength entitled them to
  • Increased their feeling of insecurity through a sense of encirclement which was actually caused by policies of Weltpolitik

The Arms Race NOT DIRECT

  • German gov passed a law in 1900 ordering the building of a new fleet of 41 battleships and 60 cruisers (Britain responded by ‘Dreadnought’ in 1906 and later ‘Super Dreadnoughts’ )
  • French had an army of 4 million by 1914
  • Russians spent a fortune on military railways

MORE DIRECT FACTORS….

  • Tripitz Navy Laws (1898), growth of both armies main bone of contention

According to Churchhill, however, in the spring and summer of 1914 naval rivalry had ceased to be a cause of friction, because it was ‘certain that Britain could not be overtaken as far as capital ships were concerned”

Or…Britain’s willingness to go to war in 1914 owed a lot to the anti-German feelings generated by the naval race

And…The arms race increased expectations of war but also led Germany to believe that she had a better chance of winning a land war in 1914 than in a few years time

Mobilization Plans

  • Schlieffen Plan 1905, France than Russia, involved first aggressive act outside Balkans because it depended on rapid capture of Liege (HIGHLY PLAUSIBLE, BECAUSE KAISER AND BETHMANN TRIED TO URGE AUSTRIA TO NEGOTIATE WITH SERBIA LAST MINUTE; GERMANY HAD NO WAR WITH FRANCE)
  • Fischer “attention to the pressure of the military for a rapid transition from mobilization to the declaration of war, thereby eliminating a last minute diplomatic solution”

The Two Alliances  NOT CONVINCING

  • Had been many crises since 1904 (Morocco, Bosnia, Agadir, Balkan Wars) none of which led to a major war
  • Nothing binding about alliances- France had not supported Russia when she protested against Austrian annexation of Bosnia, Austria took no interest in Germany’s unsuccessful attempts (Morocco 1906 and Agadir 1911), Germany had restrained Austria in Second Balkan War
  • No power had declared war because of an alliance treaty

Alliances- Austria and Germany

  • It was only in 1906, after her isolation at the Algeciras conference, that Germany fully realized that Austria Hungary was virtually her only ally and must therefore be preserved at all costs, defensive alliance became an offensive alliance with the blank cheque
  • That the Austrians did not assume they could use the alliance for offensive purposes in 1914 is shown by the dispatch of a special emissary to Berlin to sound out Germany’s views
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Impact of alliances

  • Reduced the flexibility of great powers’ response to crises
  • Franco-Russian Alliance’s impact on German military planning in the form of the Schlieffen plan- lack of a flexible response
  • However- case of Italy refusing to support allies, Britain rejected appeals to make plain her intent to support them
  • Between 1908 and 1913 the alliance system was far from rigid- Russia and Austria Hungary expressed disappointment with the support from their allies in Balkan affairs, France derived little sympathy from Russia in 1911, Britain was becoming disenchanted with Russia’s disregard for agreement for agreement reached in ...

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