Apart from these two alliances, Austria concluded also with both Germany and Russia, the Dreikaiserbund of 1872, by which the old Holy alliance was revived. A series of bilateral military agreements were signed in 1873. Austria, Russia and Germany each promised to aid one another in the event of an unprovoked attack on any of them. The arrangements were renewed in 1884, but lapsed in 1887, which proved that in spite of Bismarck’s strenuous efforts, it was impossible for these two powers to co-operate. And the most important reason for the termination of Austro-Russian friendship was their rivalry in the Balkans.
Although Austria had no share in the scramble for concessions in Africa and China, that did not make Austria’s presence less important in the European scene. Ever since 1866, Austria had become increasingly interested in extending her influence in the Balkans towards Salonika on the Macedonean coast. She signed an agreement with Montenegro in 1866 and concluded an understanding of co-operation with Bulgaria, which was followed by an alliance with Greece and a treaty with Romania. Austria was concerned about south-eastern Europe for strategic and economic reasons. She relied on the Danube as a trade route. This meant she was interested in events in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania along whose border or through whose territories the Danube passed.
However, Austrian penetration into the Balkans clashed with Russian interests. Being the head of the Orthodox church, Russia believed hence responsible for the protection of al Slavs. But for whatever motives behind the two powers, the sources of conflict were already seen in the Balkans. In 1861 Russia supported the uniting of Moldavia and Wallachia to form Romania. In 1867, she intervened to remove Turkish garrisons from Belgrade and other Serbian fortresses. With the growth of Pan-Slavism, disturbances continued to spread throughout Bosnia, Herzegovina and Bulgaria. The Ottoman Empire was gradually weakening and fading away, and all the great powers, in particular, Austria and Russia were eager to fill up the political vacuum together. The Eastern question began to pose threat to European peace.
In January 1877, arrangements were made between Austria and Russia to try to settle this problem. This was the Budapest Convention. By this, Austria promised to remain neutral in a Russo-Turkish war. If turkey was defeated, Russia promised Austria Bosnia and Herzegovina. She herself would take back Bessarabia, while Bulgaria and Rumelia would become independent states.
However, in April the same year, the Czar, getting impatient with the Sultan’s refusal to carry out reforms, violated the convention and declared war on Turkey. The Treaty of San Stefano, which marked the end of the war, allowed Russia to exert substantial influence in the Balkans. But being pressed by the powers who regarded this treaty as a threat to the balance of power, Russia consented to the Congress of Berlin chaired by Bismarck.
With secret diplomatic negotiations preceded with threats and counter-threats prior to this meeting and German support during the Congress, Austria-Hungary was allowed to administer Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as the province of Novibazar. Besides, Turkey surrendered Cyprus to Britain. The Big Bulgaria was trisected. Serbia Montenegro and Romania were made independent. Russia was allowed to retain Bessarabia, Kars and Batum. Romania was to keep Dobruja and Turkey once again promised reforms. Russia, though victorious in war, was humiliated in peace. As a result the conflict between Russia and Austria was deepened and the threat of a further outbreak of hostilities remained.
Worse still, peace had not yet been established in the Balkans. There were continued unrest in Montenegro, Bulgaria, Romania, Rumelia and Crete, Bosnia, Macedonia and in particular, Serbia. They were all jealous of one another and discontented with their boundaries. Both the Mediterranean Agreements (1887) between Italy, Austria and Britain and the Austro-Russian agreement in 1903 aimed to settle the Eastern Question, but they met with the same failure.
While Austro-Russian relations did not improve, Austro-Serbian relations worsened. Austrian administration in Bosnia and Herzegovina aroused much resentment, and her occupation of these two states caused Serbia to be jealous because Austria blocked her way of union with the Serbs and the Croats on the Dalmatian coast. Moreover, Austria enforced prohibitive tariff against Serbian agricultural produce, especially pigs, Then when Archduke Ferdinand was foolish enough to visit Bosnia on Serbia’s national day, almost unarmed, trouble came. He was assassinated.
On 23rd July, Austria presented a note to Serbia to be answered in 48 hours. Serbia being urged by Russia, Britain and France to make all possible concessions to Austria, did so and even offered to submit the case to the International Court at the Hague. Sir Edward Grey of Britain suggested that the Serbian issue to be referred to a conference in London. France and Italy agreed. Russia also accepted this in principle, while she continued her talks directly with Austria. Even William I said that the conciliatory Serbia reply had removed” every cause for war” and asked Austria to accept the British proposal. Nobody wanted war, nobody but Austria.
Austria demanded harsh conditions which she expected Serbia to refuse. Sir Edward Grey described the ultimatum as “the most formidable document ever presented to an independent state”. But Austria had virtually decided on war unless Serbia was prepared to accept all the conditions. The short time limit allowed for reply, and Austria’s concealment of the terms of the ultimatum from even Germany and Italy showed that she wanted to prevent intervention by other power.
Diplomatically, Austria was right in sending an ultimatum but she was only using the assassination as an excuse to punish Serbia for existing, and existing as a strong, independent and trouble-making state. Actually she never intended to forgive Serbia. Besides, Germany also had miscalculated the European situation. They thought Russia would allow Serbia to be destroyed, so Germany dared to give unquestioned support to Austria and refused to back down. This not only emboldened, but actually encouraged Austria to stand firm and bluffed on. But bluffs were returned with threats, and misunderstandings were piled upon miscalculations, so that in the end, Austria dragged the whole Europe, and eventually the whole world into a most tragic war when on 28th July 1914, she declared war on Serbia.
Like in the 1840’s when Metternich had to direct the trend of Europe because he believed that international and internal affairs were inseparable, in the 1860’s Austria again had to take an active part in Europe because she was deprived of leadership in Germany. To strengthen herself and raise her international status again. Austria started the military alliance system in Europe with Germany. It is convincing to say that if not for the Dual alliance in 1879, Austria might have been less aggressive, less stubborn and more sensible and more ready to make compromises. But with German support,
Austria began to pose threat to European peace. Her continuous involvement in the Balkans had brought many congresses and agreements to Europe every time they settled the issue, but no diplomats were alert and clear-minded enough to see the hidden explosive in the Balkans. Perhaps Austria was too obsessed with the intention ‘to prove that she was still alive’ so that she willingly, without thinking twice, plunged herself into, or even brought on, the crisis of 1914 and then stubbornly refused to compromise. She wanted to show that the Habsburg Empire was still ‘in control’, still the master of the situation, but unfortunately, her miscalculated belief that Russia would let Serbia be destroyed tempted her to declare war on Serbia and so on to war we went.
