Was World War one inevitable?

WAS WORLD WAR ONE INEVITABLE? Alex Nathan February 2002

There are many different views on why World War 1 started, and whether it was always going to happen. Some thought it was Germany’s ambition that brought about the war, some thought that Austria’s desire to crush Serbia started it, but a clear answer has never been found.

World War 1 was called the war to end all wars. When the news came to the people of the countries involved in 1914, the majority seemed happy and excited that they were at war.

The triple alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy) was at war with the triple entente (France, Russia and Britain). Before the war, Britain and Russia had tried to settle the rising tension in Europe with peaceful negotiations, but Kaiser Wilhelm and his Austria-Hungary alliance declined these offers.

Germany gave Austria-Hungary the “blank cheque” or in other words the go-ahead to declare war on Serbia, and France gave Russia, who had signed a military agreement with Serbia, the go-ahead to defend the Serbs. This, adding to the assassination of Franz Ferdinand of Austria in Sarajevo on 28th June 1914, all combined to mark the start of the second biggest war in the last century.

But the question is, was this war inevitable? This essay will argue that World War 1 was inevitable because of the tension between the Balkan countries and the great powers, as well as the alliance systems.

Before the war, Germany had built itself into a major world power. The Prussian victory over France in 1871 gave them new strength and boosted army morale. The population soared and the economy was the fastest growing in Europe. Germany was also in an arms race with Britain, producing weapons and expanding its naval fleet at a very high speed.

Germany had also tried to make itself some allies. It signed an agreement with Austria, and tried to have a friendship with Russia. The friendship with Russia was to stop a Franco-Russian alliance.

But in 1897, Kaiser Wilhelm II announced that Germany would adopt a world policy, (weltpolitik). The logic behind weltpolitik was that the German economy relied heavily on imported raw materials, so the Germans needed to expand their empire and have a great naval force to go with it.

The problem with this policy was that it made Britain suspicious of Germany and went ...

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Germany had also tried to make itself some allies. It signed an agreement with Austria, and tried to have a friendship with Russia. The friendship with Russia was to stop a Franco-Russian alliance.

The problem with this policy was that it made Britain suspicious of Germany and went against the friendship with Russia that German officials had been carefully planning. The British were suspicious because they were the oldest and most successful imperial power and they had foreign colonies and markets to protect. Germany was in an ongoing dispute with Britain and France about colonization in North Africa.

The other three aims of weltpolitik were:

“To build a German navy which would match the best in the world.” It was hoped that a strong German navy would encourage Britain to opt for neutrality in any future European war. - Admiral von Tirpitz (naval minister). The Origins of the First and Second World Wars

“To make Germany a major imperial power.” This needed territorial expansion oversees. - Kaiser von Bulow (chancellor). The Origins of the First and Second World Wars

“To use foreign-policy issues to increase support for authoritarian rule.” This would weaken the appeal of socialism and democracy.”- Kaiser Wilhelm. The Origins of the First and Second World Wars

Britain was offended by German competition for naval supremacy and in the end, it was one of the deciding factors that made Britain come into the war on the Franco-Russian side.

Another major factor in the lead up to World War 1 was the scramble for Africa and other locations to expand the empires of the great nations. Germany had France and Britain to contend with. Soon 90 per cent of Africa was under European rule, but Germany still felt hard done by, as they had got the least.

The Germans were not as successful as Britain, France or Russia in using imperialism to gain respect back in Europe. Germany was left with a little of Africa and a few Pacific islands. This lead to German jealousy.

Then there was the problem with the Balkans. The Balkan countries had defeated the Turks and led to the downfall of the Ottoman Empire and the Treaty of San Stefano in 1878.

Austria was interested in the Balkans because it desperately wanted to expand its empire. The countries in the Austrian Empire had seen what the Balkan states had done to the Turks, and the Austrians were worried that they would have a rebellion on their hands. The Austrians also wanted Bulgaria free from Tsarist rule. Germany had given Austria more confidence in provoking Serbia by signing a military agreement with them. Germany said that they would back Austria whatever.

Russia was interested in the Balkans too. They wanted a warm water port and to protect Serbia (who had the same basic orthodox religion as Russia) from Austria, stunting the Austrian expansion. Serbia wanted to kick Austria out of Bosnia and join up with the Bosnians. But the other Balkan countries all wanted to rule themselves and grab land from neighbouring countries.

Then, the spark, Franz Ferdinand the Archduke of Austria and heir to the throne. On 28th June 1914 he decided to make an official visit of Sarajevo, a place where he really wasn’t liked. He ignored advice not to go and risked his life to see the Austrian army in action.

But a group of Serbs called the Black Hand Society were lying in wait for him as he arrived in Sarajevo. There were six students, who all planned to kill Franz Ferdinand, but they were not well organized, and three attacks on the Archduke failed before Gavrilo Princip shot him and his wife. Princip got this opportunity to shoot because the car was reversing and in the middle of a manoeuvre.

These shots were fatal, Franz and his wife both died, and this was another reason for war. The Austrians had their excuse to attack Serbia.

Austria gave Serbia an ultimatum, and the Serbs agreed to all the conditions except one vital one. It would not let Austrian forces into Serbia to try and eliminate the Black Hand Society. But, the war that Germany and Austria-Hungary wanted was a local war with Serbia. They both knew that a war with the Serbs may well bring Russia into it, but Kaiser Wilhelm was prepared to risk that. The Austrians declared war on Serbia, bringing Germany, France and more importantly Russia into the war.

Russia and Britain did not want war and both tried to solve the problem through discussion, but their alliances brought them into it. Russia had agreed to protect the Serbs, and England had agreed to help France and Belgium. When the Austrians first declared war on Serbia, Tsar Nicholas of Russia wrote to Kaiser Wilhelm:

“In this serious moment I appeal to you to help me. An ignoble war has been declared on a weak country [Serbia]. The indignation in Russia, fully shared by me, is enormous. I foresee that very soon I shall be overwhelmed by the pressure brought upon me, and be forced to take measures which will lead to war. To try and avoid such a calamity as a European war, I beg you in the name of our old friendship to do what you can to stop your allies going too far.”

Source: I.Geiss (ed.), July 1914, London, 1967. Cited in The origins of the first and second World Wars - (Frank McDonough)

But German generals and private companies wanted war. The companies because they would reap the profits, especially the ones that made weapons and other products useful in war-time situations. The officials wanted war because they thought; what is the point of having all this naval force and all these weapons if we don’t use them?

The war had started and Germany had invaded Belgium on route to France. Britain had to join in. So the first World War was started and it seemed it was always going to.

In conclusion, this essay finds that there were too many troubles and conflicts growing in Europe at the time for there not to be a war of some sort. The war in the end turned out to be on a near-global scale with the USA sending in some troops in the last year. From the evidence I think that war was always going to happen, but could have been avoided on such a large scale.

For example, if the Austro-Hungarian and German alliance had agreed to British and Russian ideas of peaceful discussion, the war could have turned out completely differently. It could have ended up a war between just Austria and Serbia, or just Russia and Germany, or many other combinations of events.

So, this essay finds that, yes, World War 1 was inevitable, but not on a global scale.