Various things will affect the attitude people have towards the GFA and the degree of support including individual’s religious beliefs, community background, age, income and education. The aim of this study is to examine these variables. The questions that will be considered while analysing the results of the survey include: -
- How does religious denomination affect the way in which people vote on the GFA?
- How does household income affect individual’s views on the GFA?
- How does the age of the respondent affect the voting and support for the GFA?
- How does level of educational qualification affect the degree of support people have for the agreement?
- Does the respondents view on the relationship between the two main religious groups over the last five years effect how they vote and does their opinion change based on how they see relations developing over the next five years?
With each of these questions I will consider how the respondents voted on the 1998 referendum and also how they would vote if another referendum were to take place. This will illustrate how people’s attitude towards the agreement has changed and developed over the years, since 1998 to 2001. It will show us whether they still support the agreement and whether or not they have faith in it.
To begin with we can look at how respondents voted in the 1998 referendum (s3q34). This will demonstrate their opinion at the time of the referendum and whether they supported it and felt it would be of benefit. If we look at the results we can see that 54.7% of the population that had the ability to vote voted yes to the GFA. 13.8% voted no and 16.2% did not vote at all. This implies that the majority of the population at the time of the referendum felt that the GFA would be of benefit to the country. However when we compare the number of people that would vote yes to the GFA on another referendum the number has decreased to 48.8% and the amount of people who would not vote in the future has risen to 20.6%. This indicates that since the 1998 referendum some people have lost faith in the agreement. Although the amount of people that would vote has also risen as 16.2 % did not vote in 1998 only 10.5% of people would not vote again which may show an increase in the desire of the public to participate in politics effecting their lives. So although more people want to voice their opinion, their opinion seems to be that the agreement has not worked. (Table 1 and 2)
In order to examine the extent to which religion plays a role in the voting behaviour we can use cross tabulation with the question on religious denomination and how they voted. The variable RELIGCAT categorises the variable religion into 3 groups:
Catholic, Protestant and No religion. All other religions that were chosen were classified as Protestant as the numbers were too small to consider by themselves. This will obvious affect the validity of the results, as Christian denominations are not simply part of the Protestant faith.
The majority of people that voted on the Good Friday Agreement were Protestants with 16.1% not voting, closely followed by Catholics with 16.5% not voting. The sector of the population most likely not to place a vote were those from no religion with 43.6%, so almost half of all those with no religious beliefs did not vote on the referendum. However those that did vote largely voted yes – 46.4% with only 10% voting no to the GFA. The majority of people that voted yes to the GFA were Catholics with 81% and only 2.5 % not in support of the agreement. The majority of Protestants also voted yes to the agreement but less than Catholics with 56.2% and 27.7% voting no. This shows that those with the highest degree of support for the agreement were from the Catholic religion. This may be because terms of the agreement included a plan for devolved government in Northern Ireland and most people from Protestant backgrounds or communities tend to want to remain part of the United Kingdom and be ruled by the British government. In a similar sense most people form Catholic communities support a North and South Ministerial Council and preferably a United Ireland. The agreement also set to provide more opportunities for Catholics that they previously would not have had e.g. equal opportunities in the police. Those from no religious faith may feel that the agreement was more about religion and community background rather than politics. Also that, due to the mentality of the people of Northern Ireland, your politics follows where your religion lies and those from no religious denomination don’t care where or how the country is governed as it won’t make a difference to their lives as they do not have the same degree of passion and pride in the merge of religion, nationality and politics that the majority of Northern Irish people have. However the other half of those from no religious faith voted yes which means that those who do want to get involved in politics support the agreement. This may be as a step towards peace as opposed to an affiliation with certain groups. (Table 3) When asked if they would vote on another referendum today (s3q33) the majority of those that would not vote are once again those of no religious denomination – 35% with those most likely voting yes Catholics – 84.2% and those most likely voting no being Protestants – 42.7% and it can be assumed that the same pattern is being followed.
In order to test the results of the analysis carried out an independent samples test was conducted (Table 3a). This proves that the results gained are significant and not purely down to chance i.e. that different religious groups are voting in different ways.
When asked their household income (s6q31) the greater part of the respondents refused to answer followed by those that did not know, collectively adding to 43.9%. As almost half of the respondents did not provide an answer to this question the results are unreliable and invalid and we cannot gain a true reflection of the population. However from those that did answer the majority had a household income of £4,000 - £6,999 per annum – 9.8%, closely followed by those with £10,000 - £14,999 at 9%. Those in the lowest bracket of under £3,000 per annum had the lowest amount of respondents (those that answered) falling into that category with £1.7%. (Table 5)
Using cross tabulation to assess attitude towards the GFA we can see that those voting yes were mostly in the £30,000 - £39,999 bracket at 76.1%. The majority of those voting no to the agreement fell into the £3,000 - £3,999 bracket with 19.4% and those with a household income of less than £3,000 per annum were those least likely to vote – 48%. The results for how respondents would vote in another referendum are very similar with the majority of people voting yes at the top end of the household income and those least likely to vote again are those under £3,000. This difference may be due to the fact those with little money coming into the house will be more concerned with their own lives and problems than those of the country on a whole and therefore take little interest in politics. Those from higher paid jobs and bringing in more income into the household will tend to be from better educated backgrounds and therefore have more of an interest in current affairs. It may also be assumed that those with the largest income will vote yes on the agreement as it aimed to promote a thriving economy and increase the countries prosperity.
The largest amount of people that voted on the GFA based on age (ragecat) with 22.8% were those aged 65+. Those that voted least were those aged 18-24 with only 8.4% placing a vote (Table 8). The majority of people that voted yes where also aged 65+ with 72.4%. Although 18-24 year olds were the least likely to vote, when they did they voted no more than any other group, however the majority of them did vote yes. When considering how people would vote in the future again it is the 18-24 age group that are the most likely not to vote, 23.1% with the 65+ age group still the largest group to vote yes in the future, 64.5%. This may be due to the fact that young peoples interest in politics and current affairs have decreased greatly over the years. They may feel that their opinions will not make a difference and there is no point taking action. The older age group on the other hand will have experienced the troubles at their peak and may want to try anything for peace and to save the country to returning to that state. They are also more likely to place a vote as they have supported their political party for a long time and will continue to do so. (Table 10)
When looking at the variable of education (s6q5) we can see that the majority of respondents have no form of educational qualification, 50.6% while only 10.8% had a degree or equivalent (Table 11). When considering education in relation to support of the agreement those with the highest form of education – degree level, where the most likely to vote and vote yes, 76.3%. However those most likely not to place a vote where those from the education bracket under degree – BTEC (higher) with 25.5%. Those most likely to vote no came from the bracket of CSE (other than grade 1), with 23.9%, which is just above no education qualification. When it comes to whether the respondents would vote in another referendum those with GCSE as their highest qualification where the most likely not to vote – 19%, but those that would are the most likely out of the group that would are the most likely to vote no – 28.7%. Those with the degree are still the most likely to vote yes with 75.3% due to the range of results it appears that educational qualification does not effect attitudes towards the GFA e.g. although those with degree’s continue to vote yes, the majority that didn’t even vote are only a level of education below.
From assessing respondents’ views on the relationship between Catholics and Protestants over the last five years (s5q1) and the developing over the next five years (s5q2) we can examine whether or not the referendum is, overall, seen as helping relations between these two communities.
Everyone that thinks the relationship between the two groups will be worse in the future, no matter how they feel the relationship has developed over the last five years, stated that they will not vote on a future referendum. In similar terms everyone that thinks relations will improve over the next five years, regardless of how they feel the relationship has developed during the last five years, said that they would vote on a referendum. This is also the case with the opinion that the relationship has stayed the same in the last five years, with everyone stating they would vote yes in a new referendum. 68.2% of respondents stated that relations have improved over the last five years and will continue to improve. (Table 14) These results suggest that those that feel relations will not improve over the next five years do not feel the referendum will do anything to change this and there is therefore no point in voting yes. Those that feel the relationship between the two communities will improve will vote yes in a future referendum and this may be because they think that the referendum is what will aid the improvement.
The results of the survey indicate that religious belief and community background do influence how a person did vote and how they would vote in the future. The numbers tended to stay the same in relation to future voting and although there where some decreases, which indicates loss of faith in the agreement and a feeling that it didn’t do anything to benefit the country, the results still show that the majority of the country would vote and vote yes and that the country will improve.
Bibliography
Books
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Babbie, E., ‘The Practice of social Research’, 6th edition, Wadsworth, 1992
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