I have decided to carry out a simulation on a real life situation. A simulation is the imitation of of the operation of a system. This simulation is more or less the study of outcomes mostly affected by chance. These are called Monte Carlo methods.

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Adnan Undre                5/9/2007

Introduction

For my As level Mathematics coursework I have decided to carry out a simulation on a real life situation.  A simulation is the imitation of of the operation of a system. This simulation is more or less the study of outcomes mostly affected by chance. These are called Monte Carlo methods.

I have decided to analyze the queueing method of a newsagent located on Shear Brow. This newsagent is located just outside our college. Most of the busy periods are the lunch and break periods when students from the college go to the shop to buy things. I am going to try to simulate a situation in which the least amount of customers are delayed.

At the moment the shop consists of two tills and has one queue. This is very delaying in some periods as the customers have to wait long periods of time to get served.  To start my simulation I first had to obtain the random numbers that would make up the basis of the experiment, I had to gain some real life results that would be used to make the random numbers.

I carried out the experiment on the shop with the following assumptions: -

  • I would start at time 0.
  • There are no people in the queue at the starting.
  • Both tills would be free and open for use.

The results obtained by this are shown on the next page.

From this data I can now work out percentage frequency which would then be used in the making of the random numbers.  I need to make two sets of random numbers one for the Interval Arrival Times and the other for Service Durations.

From this data I can now work out the random number schemes which will be the basis of the experiment.

Also from this data I can now work out percentage frequency for the Service duration times.  This will also enable me to make some random number schemes for Service duration times.

From this I get the following random number schemes which will enable me to simulate different service duration times.

Know I am able to do the experiment using these random number schemes and some assumptions.  These assumptions will help to produce some real life results without making too much hassle.

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The previous graph shows the results of the simulation which was made. The simulation was on the basis of having 1 till to be served on and 1 queue to join. As you can see that the graph shows a very wide rang of results and these results are very big. For instance ...

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