The universal Franchise was at first limited to those over twenty-one, in the belief that the young are more likely to question established values and favor radical policies. Young people tend to abstain from voting as they are either a political or have cannot see what difference the outcome will make in their everyday lives. However, there has been a greater rise in the Labour vote in 1997 amongst the young. This was probably due to the Labour party appealing to the working class and Tony Blair’s sense of youth and optimism. In 1992 more young people voted conservative than Labour, suggesting the effect of a generation socialized by unbroken conservative rule. The increasing potential of older people’s votes was shown in 1997 as age concern produced glossy brochures to mobilize the elderly, emphasising that 24% of the electorate had considerable voter power. It has been argued that property and wealth as we grow older lead to a more conservative outlook. 65+ give more support towards conservative. Half of fewer than 45 voters were Labour.
Generally black people have been less inclined to register to vote than whites. However, those of an Asian descent are more likely to vote than their white neighbours, while afro-Caribbean are less so. In both cases the strong preference has been for Labour. Many young afro-carribeans generally do not vote so either they are a political or know that by giving a party their mandate it would note make a difference. In 1992 72% of Asian voters supported Labour. Although there are grounds for thinking that non-manually employed Asians will gradually deflect. Tough conservative legislation on Asylum seekers and immigration prior to the 1999 election led some people to fear that the “race card’ might be played during the campaign in a desperate bid to exploit anti-immigrant attitudes in order to rebuild conservative support.
Women have shown a greater propensity than their husbands to vote conservative. After the war women were less exposed to the forces of heightening class consciousness associated with employment in large industrial places. Not having a job meant they were not involved with such issues like industrial conflict and trade unions. There was also the greater longevity which gave women a more of a chance to loose the radical intense feeling of youth. However both suggestions cause no casual link between voting and gender as such. Women usually stayed at home and look after the family as they felt it was their natural position. In 1979 the gap narrowed and then disappeared. Labour appealed to women with issues such as health and education. Thatcher appealed to the “Macho image”, whilst Labour appealed to matters such as abortion, health, divorce. They made an effort to convince women voters.
There is an influence on the voting behavior which political scientists refer to as the “neighborhood effect”. It stated that the more middle-class an area was, then the more conservative were middle class; the more working class an area there was a stronger support for Labour. Hence voters therefore, tend to conform to the locally dominant political norm. Labour is more stronger in urban areas, while Conservatives are more stronger in the rural areas. The reasons for this are quite complex but are related to the different economic structure of the region in terms of social class.
In 1997 Labour received 60.9% in the North of England, but 26.4% in South West England the conservatives got a high of 41.4%in the South East.
The Recency approach is an example of how the short-term factors affect voting behaviour, it is determined on events in politics which is happening at the time. These perceptions can change quite quickly a new party leader, a fall in the interest rate or a period of poor industrial relations can result in large swings of support from one party to another. The Recency approach emphasises the volatility of voting behaviour which can result from relatively minor events which occur in politics. The resounding electoral victory of New Labour, with its new constitution, new policies and new leader, meant that there was a national swing which suggests that primary explanations of voting behaviour is no longer particularly useful. The following has a significant impact as to the way we vote.
Media influences voting behaviour as in the 1992 general election many of the tabloid newspapers campaigned for Conservatives, where as by 1997, the position had considerably changed. Labour won the election and 11 national newspapers overly supported Labour. The media can significantly change public opinion in to thinking what party they should vote for. The tabloid newspapers, in particular, tend to be highly partisan with news, opinion and party propaganda mixed together. In 1997 21.6 million people were reading pro-Labour newspapers compared to 10.6million reading conservative. The media will give their highest support to the party who proves popular at the time and is usually in power, which can tend to leave voters unsure and quite confused. In terms of broadcasting the television will show coverage of the politician and the favourable issues which can help influence the voter.
Electoral campaigns can determine the success or failure of the party. If a lot of time and money has been put into a campaign and their effort is recognised than in turn voters are more likely to vote fro that party as it is more publicised as their campaign is more influential. In the 1992 and 1997 general election a survey carried out by the opinion poll proved that the Labour campaign proved more of a hit with the potential voters.
The image of the party and party perceptions has influenced recent voting behaviour. This is reflected when Labour lost in the past due to their divided leadership not their policies. Linking in with the media from a prospective view television and broadcasting give a more generalised view of the party and their attitudes. In 1997 Tony Blair was elected not only because of his new policies ‘New Labour” but because he “brought an air of enthusiasm with his youthfulness and optimism”. This shows that at the time Tony Blair appealed to voters and with influential positive coverage it meant that he became elected.
With the weakening of class influences on voting and the emergence of new issues which did not fit traditional partisan split, some political; scientists argued that an increasing number of electorate were voting on the basis of issue preference. Issue preference is what voters like and do not like in party politics. Voters would rank these policies in order to issues that take more of a priority to the least. For example young voters would not really care for a party that redistributes its money to the old age pensioners so that would be at the bottom of their list. Issue voting behaviour to some extent shows voters are more likely to vote for a party that has policies that appeal to them then vote for a party that has policies that appeal to everyone.
There are other methods which also determine voting behaviour some are for example tactical voting. It is voting for a second choice party in order to defeat the party which is most disliked. In other words voting for the third party. An example is in the Conservative seats where Labour was in second place in 1992, Labour’s share of the vote went up by 13%on average, while the Lib Democrats declined by about 13%, while the Labour share rose by less than average. As a result of this there is no some evidence to say that we now have a 2.5/ or 3rd party system.
A protest vote is a negative vote. It is a negative vote against a policy or against the current direction of the government, rather than a vote fro the opposition parties. Protest voting is more common in by-elections than in general elections. In June 1994 a conservative majority of 17,702 was overthrown in the Eastleigh by-election, it was a clear sign that the voters of Eastleigh wanted to protest about the government’s recent behaviour. On reason why the conservatives did so badly in the local elections during 1979-1997 was that people who voted Conservatives in general elections were prepared to register a protest vote against the government in local elections.
Within the last 60 years or so voting trends have changed fairly dramatically, Recency issues seem to have more of an impact at elections. Determinants such as age, gender occupation, all these influences and political affiliations seem to have slowly withered away although they still form the basis of voting behaviour. This has made it increasingly difficult to attribute voting behaviour to a single source such as social class. Voters seem to “swing” from part to party in an election, however they provide a vital source of change in democratic politics.
