Assess the factors that determine the outcome of US Presidential elections

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Assess the factors that determine the outcome of US Presidential elections? (60)

When looking at the factors that determine the outcome of Presidential elections we must first look at the credentials a candidate needs in order to even consider running for office. As affirmed in Article II of the Constitution they need to be a natural-born US citizen, at least 35 years of age, and have been a resident in the US for at least 14 years. (After 1951, an amendment was passed stating that a person cannot serve more than 2 terms as president).

US Presidential elections are used to choose representatives for a fixed-term period in office (of four years). There are always held on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November and the system employed is FPTP, a simple majority system.  

A presidential election can be split up into two distinct stages; the first being concerned with choosing the candidates; and the second is concerned with electing the President.

Because the parties in the US don’t have ‘leaders’ in the way UK parties do, and it is therefore necessary for them to choose a suitable candidate to carry forward into phase two of the process stand in the presidential election.

The race for the presidency begins unofficially with what are known as the ‘invisible primaries’ – a period in which a candidate strives to gain name recognition, personnel, positive media attention and finance for your campaign. The idea being that this gives your campaign a flying start when it comes to the pre-nomination phase (this has led to what is known as ‘front loading’) which begins in January and runs right though until the NPC’s held some time in the summer, where the party formally announces their chosen candidate.

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The procedures used by the two main political parties for selecting a presidential candidate are either a caucus or primary election held at state level. The results of these primaries of caucuses in the different states determine the delegates who attend the NPC. This stage of the campaign is very expensive and fund-raising is vital. Only a candidate who has built up enough momentum during the ‘invisible primary’ and performs well in the early stages of the primary season will attract the funds required to keep their campaign going all the way through till the NPC.

(Candidates may ...

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