In comparison to Germany's relative political stability, what variables can be identified in order to explain Italy's relative political turmoil since the end of the Second World War?

Francesca Ross – 315390 John Wilton 16/12/2004

POL2001 – Political Analysis – Theories and Cases

In comparison to Germany’s relative political stability, what variables can be identified in order to explain Italy’s relative political turmoil since the end of the Second World War?

"As long as the differences and diversities of mankind exist, democracy must allow for compromise, for accommodation, and for the recognition of differences."

-Eugene McCarthy - http://www.britannica.com/eb/article?tocId=9049640

INTRODUCTION

In order to consider the above question I intend to embark upon a comparative analysis of the two states within the framework of the liberal democratic model of Western Europe. I shall explore the various themes of the model and the role played by its institutions in achieving and maintaining political stability. By using the most similar systems theory I intend to establish similarities and therefore comment upon the causes of differences between each polity. I shall then comment on which influences I can therefore consider relevant and whether they are endogenous or exogenous factors. I shall provide quantitative data to support my opinion and I hope to also shed light upon the societal norms of each country and the detail of their state/institutional structures.

ELECTIONS

The structure of the party system will be considered later in this research however; at this point the discussion must centre on the role of the Christian Democratic parties of either country. The fall of the Berlin Wall has without doubt left a political footprint upon world politics. For both of the countries I am considering here it has been a huge landmark. Although you would expect there to be greater political turmoil within the German state it was Italy that would face greater challenges. For the Italian people a long running undercurrent of their voting patterns had been the fear of the PCI (The Italian Communist Party) and their image as “the bogeyman from Moscow”. This meant that although they received considerable electoral support (never below 25% from 1963-1990) they were never accepted as a possible ruling party and this maintained voter turnout for the opposition DC (Christian Democrats). The fall of Communism removed this motivation and fragmented party support – (Political Institutions in Europe, Manfred Schmidt, 2002, Routledge, Great Britain, pg 37)

During the First Republic despite severe government instability there was relative stability among the party outcomes in elections. While there undoubtedly was movement within the electorate from one election to another, such movement was limited. Major shifts in party vote totals were the exception rather than the rule. However, the fall of the DC and the subsequent reallocation of voting preferences have left the Christian Democrats, or rather, their descendents playing catch-up for support.

In parallel to the Italian system within pre-unified West Germany there was traditionally a Christian Democratic party at the helm of government with the centre of political gravity falling between a centrist and centre right position. German unification has altered this distribution insofar as the East German party system has been marked by a weaker role of the CDU/CSU and the SPD than in West Germany. The ascension of the East German Republic brought the possibility of socialist support to Germany and this residual ideology together with the recent economic decline during a period of CDU government brought a 47% share of the election vote (compared to their average of 37.5% 1949-1998) for the SPD in 1998. (Political Institutions in Europe, Manfred Schmidt, 2002, Routledge, Great Britain, Page 59)

Therefore, the fall of Communism has affected the structure of the political system of both countries in totally different ways. The German system benefited from the support of the East Germans for their successful incumbent government. For the Italians the removal of the Communist scare fragmented rather than consolidated party support.

Table 1: Election to the lower German House Results – 1949-1998

(Derived and compiled from Political Institutions in Europe, Manfred Schmidt, 2002, Routledge, Great Britain, Page 59)

PARTY SYSTEMS

It could well be stated that modern European government has had to embrace the ideal of coalition to achieve their aims. Although certainly more successful in Germany, Italy is re-building its institutions with this principle in mind. From the ashes of the collapse of the system came a new willingness for co-operation in the face of necessity.

As part of this series of deep upheavals in the Italian political system during the early 1990s the Italian Communist Party (PCI) evolved towards a social-democratic party as the Democratic Party of the Left (PDS). A minority group within the PCI created the Refounded Communist Party (PR). The Christian Democratic Party replaced its old leaders and changed the party’s name to the Popular Italian Party, unsuccessful in maintaining its traditional electoral power, (above 30% of votes). The party split up into three groups, as also occurred with the Socialist Party that broke up into several small parties, including the Italian ...

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Table 2: Left-Right placement of parties in Italy

Note: 1 = extreme left; 10 = extreme right

(Derived and compiled from Political Institutions in Europe, Manfred Schmidt, 2002, Routledge, Great Britain, pg 147)

The electoral reform of 1993, intended to promote coalition, was first applied in March 1994 elections, in which three coalitions took part. The centre-right coalition (Northern League, National Alliance, the Italian Social Movement, of a group of former Christian Democrats and Forza Italia) led by Berlusconi won the elections, but his government was overcome by internal conflicts and remained in power for only a few months. The defeated parties of March 1994 went on to form the Olive Tree (Ulivo) movement, composed of the PDS, the Popular Party and the Green Party. This coalition won the 1996 elections, defeating the Pole (Polo) led by Berlusconi (http://www.janda.org/comparative%20parties/page169.htm)

Whilst Italy is now consolidating this change of attitude, coalition government has long been apparent within Germany. Germany’s chancellor is not directly elected by voters, but chosen after elections by the majority party. If no party holds a majority it must be achieved through a coalition of two or more parties. If a smaller party gains a relatively large number of seats, it might also have the option of forming a coalition with the runner-up. This is why the smaller parties are sometimes called “kingmakers” – the fate of the candidates for chancellor can rest in their hands. Using the 2002 Chancellors election as an example, the following coalitions have potential within the German system; SPD-Greens (red-green), CDU/CSU-FDP (black-yellow), SPD-FDP (red-yellow), SPD-FDP-Greens (red-yellow-green), Grand Coalition and the SPD-PDS-Greens (red-red-green)- (www.germany-deutschland.com/ germany/english/politics_of_germany/)

Table 3: Governments in the Federal Republic of Germany – 1949-1998

Note: Former liberals, DA, later renamed FYP, merged with DP in 1957, and with CDU in 1960. The first party indicates the Chancellor’s affiliation

Derived and compiled from Political Institutions in Europe, Manfred Schmidt, 2002, Routledge, Great Britain

PARLIAMENT

Both Italy and Germany have established roles for both a Prime Minister and a President within their system. Power lies decisively with the Prime Minister on both occasions with the President limited in terms of his influence. The office is manifest in either system as described below.

The 1948 constitution of Italy established a bicameral parliament (Parlamento), consisting of a Chamber of Deputies (Camera dei Deputati) a Senate (Senato della Repubblica) and an executive branch composed of a Council of Ministers (cabinet), headed by the president of the council (prime minister). The president of the republic is elected for 7 years by the parliament sitting jointly with a small number of regional delegates. The president nominates the prime minister, who proposes the other ministers (formally named by the president). The Council of Ministers (mostly, but not necessarily composed of members of parliament) must retain the confidence of both houses. The Chamber of Deputies has 630 members. In addition to 315 elected members, the Senate includes former presidents and several other persons appointed for life according to special constitutional provisions. Both houses are elected for a maximum of 5 years, but either may be dissolved before the expiration of its normal term. A bill must receive the positive assent of both houses and the Cabinet is equally responsible to both houses, producing a strongly bicameral legislature – (Comparative European Politics, Hans Daalder (1997), Pinter, Wiltshire, pg 33)

Germany is a constitutional federal republic, whose political system is laid out in the 1949 'constitution' called Grundgesetz (Fundamental Law). It has a parliamentary system in which the head of government, the (Chancellor), is elected by the parliament.The parliament, called Bundestag (Federal Assembly), is elected every four years by popular vote in a complex system combining direct and proportional representation. The 16 Bundesländer are represented at the federal level in the Bundesrat (Federal Council), which—depending on the subject matter—may have a say in the legislative procedure. Lately, there has been much concern about the Bundestag and the Bundesrat blocking each other, making effective government very difficult. The function of head of state is performed by the Bundespräsident (Federal President) in Germany, whose powers are mostly limited to ceremonial and representative duties. – (http://www.bundestag.de/htdocs_e/orga/index.html)

ELECTORAL SYSTEM

The electoral systems discussed below can be recognised by their use of a two vote system and partial use of a proportional representation.

In the elections to the Bundestag, each voter has two votes. The first vote is for candidates in the districts with the candidate receiving the majority vote as the winner. The second votes determine how many representatives will be sent from each party to the Bundestag. The number of representatives for each party is determined according to Hare/Niemeyer formula.

In the first procedure for distributing the seats, the number of seats for each party is determined. In this procedure, the second votes at the national level of the parties' lists are added. The Hare/Niemeyer method of quota and largest remaindersis applied to all of these votes, thereby determining the total seats for each party.

Although the German system is often considered the most representative in Europe there are some restrictions upon proportionality. The excess mandate allows parties who make large gains in electoral districts but not in the party lists to retain these seats by increasing the size of the legislature.

The second is also active in Italy. This is the idea that parliamentary representation can only be awarded after reaching a minimum threshold. This intends to limit the number of small parties and reduce fragmentation although cannot be considered entirely successful. – (The German Polity, David Conradt, (2001), Addison Wesley Longman, United States, pg 105)

The performance of the peculiar kind of PR system in the First Italian Republic proved unsatisfactory and large scale reform was implemented in the 1990’s following public referenda. The second in 1993 was widely interpreted as a complete rejection of PR in favour of a plurality system. Under 1993 legislation, Italy has single-member districts for 75% of the seats in parliament allocated by the first vote; the remaining 25% of seats are allotted on a proportional basis from a second list. – (Modern Italy: Representation and Reform, Paul Furlong (1994), Routledge, Cardiff, pg 29)

Table 4: Electoral system for the lower House or first chamber

Note: Two rows with different formula indicates two tier seat allocation. PR – proportional representation. Magnitude: number of seats/number of districts

Derived and compiled from Political Institutions in Europe, Manfred Schmidt, 2002, Routledge, Great Britain

JUDICIARY

The ability of the judiciary to monitor and comment upon the workings of the political system can most easily be compared here when considering the issue of party funding.

Mani pulite (Italian for clean hands) was a nationwide Italian police investigation into political corruption. It was a significant factor the demise of the so-called First Republic, resulting in the disappearance of the major government parties. Some politicians and industry leaders committed suicide after their crimes were exposed. The corruption system that was uncovered by these investigations was usually referred to as Tangentopoli, or "bribeville" - (http://www.serebella.com/encyclopedia/article-Italy.html)

Despite a reputation for reluctance to involve itself with the essentially corrupt Italian system Italian magistrates entered into an in depth and lengthy investigation of the financial dealings of the parties. Despite considerable opposition, and even the murder of judges by the Mafia, they set out to purge the system of its pollutants. The liberal democratic principle of the ability of the judicairy to challenge Government is seen here and at one point 2150 representatives were under investigation.

Table 5: The extent of the “mani-pulite” enquiry

Derived and compiled from Italy: Politics and Policy, Robert Leonardi, (1996), Ipswich Book Co Ltd, Great Britain, Page 193

A case representing similar issues emerged in Germany around the early 1990’s. This regarded the allocation of public funds in financing political parties. The matter received the attention of the Federal Constitutional court and drew criticism from the Federal President. Sixteen judges make up the Federal Constitutional Court, Germany's highest and most important judicial body. The result of the enquiry was that a law passed in 1988 was deemed unconstitutional, state subsidies are now limited to the amount the parties raise themselves and several Free Democrats were indicted.

It should also be mentioned that much like their Italian counterparts in Italy, the German Christian Democrats have also come under fire regarding their finances. Allegations of kickbacks from defence contractors, secret foreign bank accounts and falsified records severely damaged the CDU when they emerged in 1999 – (The German Polity, David Conradt, (2001), Addison Wesley Longman, United States, pg 19)

CONSTITUTION

Italy and Germany both need to recognise and manage regional issues in their systems. The rise of the Northern League in the early 1990’s was a major destabilising factor for Italy at an already unsteady time. There had long been a cleavage between North and South Italy with the wealthier North unhappy that their taxes were being invested in the poorer South when they themselves felt they were not receiving adequate provision. In the 1992 election the NL became the fourth most important political party in Italy. They were calling for an overhaul of the constitution and the establishment of a federal state which would allow them greater autonomy. Although they were unsuccessful in achieving this there did result in reform of the system. Nearly all unitary states have developed at least one level of government which stands between central and local authorities. Italy has adopted a system of elected regional governments and the standard pattern of three levels of sub national government – regional, provincial and local. Regional and provincial levels are “intermediate” governments which form the “expanded middle” of modern states. The result is a multi-tier system which reduces the contrasts between unitary and federal arrangements. – (Comparative Government and Politics: An Introduction (1998), MacMillan, Padstow, pg 48)

In order to maintain equilibrium within the new states of Post War Germany a federal system was implemented to prevent the rise of such destabilising elements.

As a true Federal state the Federal Republic (Bundesrepublik) in Germany consists of 16 federal states (Bundesländer). The Grundgesetz prescribes that legislature is to be handled by the states except where explicitly stated in the Grundgesetz itself. This principle has been quite reversed in practice through many amendments of the constitution since 1949, leaving basically only police, cultural and communal affairs to be handled by state legislature.

The political systems of the individual states are prescribed by state constitutions, but resemble that of the federal level to a certain extent.. They each form a state cabinet and elections for the parliaments of the Bundesländer occur every four to five years, depending on the state - (reference.allrefer.com/ country-guide-study/germany/germany127.html)

CONCLUSION

Therefore having examined the systems of both countries by establishing simmilarities I may now attempt to pass comment upon the reason for their patterns of stability.

These patterns are a result of predominanatly endogenous variables. These being the rise of the Northern League and regional politics, the inefficency of, and resulting referenda regarding, the electoral system, and the effect of domestic corruption.

Firstly I shall discuss the exogenous influence here, the collapse of Communism. The Italian system has often been described a partyocracy, meaning a system that focuses upon party politics rather than a bigger picture, and the results of the discreditation of the political parties in the 90’s seem to validate that point. The fall of the Berlin Wall could have created turmoil for the Germans but the ascending East Germans shared a belief in the potential of the German democracy based upon co-operation rather than specific policy points. The rigid ideological distances among the partys and voters of the First Republic could not withstand the pressure of such reformation necessary to create stable, effective government. Indeed the German “catch-all parties”, with less ideological dogma, as described by Kircheimer in 1966 (http://www.janda.org/comparative%20parties/page169.htm) were far more capable of absorbing the political shockwaves. The prevalance of these parties in Germany has created a political population who feel represented and comfortable with their Government.

Both countries face challenges from the traditional European cleavages as discussed by Lipset and Rokkan. The urban-rural cleavage has proved an issue, with Italy needing to fund the predominantly agricultural South and Germany the under developed East. The creation and subsequent influence of the Northern League in Italy furthered instability as there appeared a real opportunity for change in regard to political represention The Federal system of Germany has managed these concerns through decentralisation of concerns to a local level, for example tax and the use of manageable electoral districts within a combined electoral system. The German Polity, David Conradt, (2001), Addison Wesley Longman, United States, pg 47)

Such an electoral system is now employed in both counties and allows the possibility of strong party grouping within Parliament whilst also reflecting the makeup of society. The system in Italy would always remain volatile as the pure PR system used allowed iodeologically diverse parties to fragment support and make coalitions generally unworkable. Germanys use of the 5% rule in particular, avoided this and created an atmosphere where successful coalition was the norm rather than the aim. Instability arose from the reform to the system as a natural result of this reclassification, but the resulting reduction in parties has supported coalition government. Returning to the point of identification with a political party, the exposure of the corruption inherent in the Italian system left the reputation of the traditional parties and their leaders severely tarnished. Voters were dismayed by the massive aqnd widespread levels of corruption which were obviously so ingrained as to become systemic. I therefore suggest also that the functioning of government within Germany is clearer to the common man and this is an important factor to political stability.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Modern Italy: Representation and Reform, Paul Furlong (1994), Routledge, Cardiff
Italy: From the First to the Second Republic, Sondra and Stephen Koff (2000), Routledge, Bury St Edmunds
Comparative Government and Politics: An Introduction (1998), MacMillan, Padstow
Political Institutions in Europe, Manfred Schmidt, 2002, Routledge, Great Britain
Italy: politics and Policy, Robert Leonardi,(1996), Ipswich Book Co Ltd, Great Britain
The German Polity, David Conradt, (2001), Addison Wesley Longman, United States
Comparative European Politics, Hans Daalder (1997), Pinter, Wiltshire
Issues and Methods in Comparative Politics, Todd Landman, (2000), Routledge, London
http://www.intellectbooks.com/europa/number2/bull.htm
http://www.bundestag.de/htdocs_e/orga/index.html
http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/wahlen/download/abc2002e.pdf
www.allaboutitaly.com/JumpCh.asp?idLang=ENG& idChannel=2179&idNews=0&idUser=0 - 80k
http://www.serebella.com/encyclopedia/article-Italy.html
www.germany-deutschland.com/ germany/english/politics_of_germany/
reference.allrefer.com/ country-guide-study/germany/germany127.html
http://www.janda.org/comparative%20parties/page169.htm
http://www.britannica.com/eb/article?tocId=9049640

In comparison to Germany's relative political stability, what variables can be identified in order to explain Italy's relative political turmoil since the end of the Second World War?

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