Influences on Voting Behaviour
Four types of voters are:
o Loyal voters - remain loyal to one political party and always vote for that party.
o Floating voters - people who vote for one party at one election and another at a later election.
o Abstainers - people who don't vote at all.
o Tactical voters - people who adopt a strategy in deciding who to vote for rather than automatically voting for their first choice.
What factors affect voting?
o Social class - up until the 1970's social class was considered to be the single most important influence on voting behaviour in Britain. Support for the two main parties was based broadly on social class. Working class people tended to vote labour while middle class people tended to vote conservative.
o Age and gender - in the 1992 general election slightly more women than men voted conservative and slightly more men voted labour. In 1997 general election however there was virtually no difference in the way men and women voted. Traditionally young people have been more likely to vote labour and older people have been more inclined to vote conservative.
o Ethnicity - sociologists point to the important link between ethnicity and voting behaviour. In 1992 general election, 90% of voters from an African Caribbean background and 71% of voters from an Asian background voted labour. This link can be explained partly in terms of social class and also as a result of labours image as a party taking an interest in the problems and issues facing black Britons.
o Geography - traditionally the conservative party has been more popular in the south of England outside London while the labour party has been more popular in the north of England and Scotland. In the may 1997 general election this divide became more marked as the conservative party lost all of its ten seats in Scotland. It also lost its single seat in Wales.
o Religion - in some countries religion is an important factor in political life and in voting behaviour. In northern Ireland, for example links between religion and politics are important. In England there is some evidence to suggest that Anglicans are more likely to support the conservatives and Catholics to support labour.
o Policies - in the 1997 general election labour voters were asked by ICM what the most important factors in their decisions to vote were.
o Party Leaders: John Major was regarded as an asset to the Conservative Party during the 1992 general election. Of the three party leaders on offer at the time, he was seen by voters as likely to make the best prime minister. Since Tony Blair became leader of the Labour Party in July 1994, he has been identified by twice as many electors as the person most likely to make the best prime minister.
o Party image: In addition to the other factors influencing voting behaviour, we must also consider party image- that is, our image of what the political parties stand for. Although, such images are not necessarily totally accurate, they do affect the way people view the political parties and their policies. During the 1980s, the images of the two main political parties were quite markedly different from each other. The Conservatives Party was seen as standing for individual freedom, the middle class, law or order, business interests and defence. The Labour Party was seen as the party of the ...
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o Party image: In addition to the other factors influencing voting behaviour, we must also consider party image- that is, our image of what the political parties stand for. Although, such images are not necessarily totally accurate, they do affect the way people view the political parties and their policies. During the 1980s, the images of the two main political parties were quite markedly different from each other. The Conservatives Party was seen as standing for individual freedom, the middle class, law or order, business interests and defence. The Labour Party was seen as the party of the traditional working class, associated with government intervention, a tax and spends economic policy, welfare and trade unions. During the 1990s, the Conservatives Party image has been damaged by various allegations of sleaze. John Williams, writing in 1995, pointed to the appeal and image of 'new Labour'. He stated that polls indicated that people liked Tony Blair and general direction of the 'new Labour'. Such images are partly created by the media and though they may not be accurate, they do help people decide how to vote.
o The media: Wagg (1994) points to the changing relationship between politicians and the media. During the 1950 general election, all party leaders refused an invitation to speak on television. No mention of the election was made on television until after the polls had closed. The link between politicians and the media has now become much closer as politicians recognize the importance of wooing the electorate through the media. The former leader of the Labour Party, Neil Kinnock, appeared in a pop video with Tracy Ullman and as Prime Minister; John Major was interviewed on Radio 1 by DJ Steve Wright. Political parties now employ media advisors and 'spin doctors' whose job it is to try to 'manage' news.
The role of the mass media is particularly important during general election campaigns. In general terms, we can say that, since 1945, the press have been more supportive of the Conservatives than of Labour. During the 1992 general election campaign, five out of six national tabloid newspapers supported the Conservative Party. The Sun's front page headline read: 'If Neil Kinnock wins today, will the last person to leave Britain please turn out the lights?' Once the Conservative Party's victory was announced, The Sun headline stated: 'It's the Sun wot won it.'
During the 1997 general election, however, newspaper coverage was more in favour of new Labour. For example, The Sun announced its support for Blair and new Labour with 'The Sun Backs Blair' headline, while a total of six national dailies backed on The Labour Party. Research evidence on the impact of the media on voting behaviour during an election campaign is not clear cut. It is also necessary to consider the long-term 'drip, drip, drip' effect of the media rather than just looking at the short-term impact of the media during elections.
What are the trends in voting behaviour since the 1950s?
Since the 1950s, a number of trends in support for the political parties can be identified.
Two-part decline: The two major parties, Conservative and Labour, have gradually lost support at elections in terms of the percentage of the electorate voting for them. In the 1950s, the two main parties shared the bulk of votes. In 1951, 96.8% of votes were cast for either Labour or the Conservatives. In the 1955 general election, this figure stood at 96.6%. By October 1974, however, only 76.9% of votes were cast for the two main parties. In 1997, 75% of votes were cast for either Labour or the Conservatives. This means that there has been a rise in third-party voting. In 1955, only 3.4% of the vote in Britain went to other parties. By 1987, the Liberals/SDP and had 25.2% of the vote, but b 1997 they had only 17%.
Class dealignment: Up until the 1997 general election, the links between class and voting behaviour appeared to be declining. In particular, there had been a decline in the working-class Labour vote. After the 1987 general election, Ivor Crewe (1987) argued that while the Labour vote remained largely working class, the working class no longer remained largely Labour. This was because changes in the occupational or class structure have resulted in a division of the working class into two groups: the 'traditional' working class, which is shrinking, and the 'new' working class, which is growing. The later appeared to be more likely to vote Conservative and less likely to vote Labour. As a result of the shrinking of the traditional working class, we can say that the Labour Party's traditional class base is declining.
Rallings and Thrasher (1997) point out that between 1979 and 1992, the proportion of manual workers in the electorate declined from 41% to 34%. A smaller and smaller proportion of the electorate can now be seen as typically working class. This means that Labour's traditional electoral base is being eroded. Despite this, in 1997 the Labour Party won a landslide victory, gaining the support of manual workers and clerical workers. New Labour was successful because it managed to appeal to, and gain support from, a wide social base.
Gender: The links between gender and voting behaviour are declining in that women and men are now voting in similar ways. The gender gap in voting has disappeared.
Opinion Polls
Opinion polls are one type of social survey and are used for various purposes. For example, Market research companies use opinion polls to find out consumer preferences e.g. regarding beer or soap powder. Opinion polls are used to find out our views on topical issues, such as the NHS or capital punishment. Opinion polls are carried out in order to discover voters' intentions in the run up to elections. These opinion polls are conducted by organizations such as ICM, Gallup, Harris and MORI and the results are published in the press.
Reflecting or directing?: Some sociologists have suggested that the results of opinion polls may affect the outcome of the election rather than just informing about voting intentions. To illustrate this point, let's say that the results of an opinion poll were as follows:
Labour 40%
Liberal Democrats 35%
Conservative 10%
Other 15%
This opinion poll suggests that the Conservative Party has little chance of winning. Mr Blue, who would have voted Conservative, may now switch to the Liberal Democrats in order to try to defeat the Labour Party. Such voting behaviour is known as tactical voting, in which voters do not vote for the party of their first preference. Instead, they vote for the party which they least dislike in order to keep a third party out.
If an opinion poll suggests that one party is likely to get a large majority, then some of its supporters may not bother vote. They abstain from voting because the outcome of the election may seem to be inevitable. If this happens on a large scale then the party which was predicted to win may do less. When the results of an opinion poll are published, the 'bandwagon effect' may occur. Some of us may jump on the bandwagon and vote for the party which the opinion poll predicts will win. If this happens then the opinion poll has done more than a prediction- it has actually influenced the outcome of the election. In the 1997 general election, many of the problems associated with opinion polls seem to have been ironed out. The pollsters' results were considered to be close to the final result. Over 40 surveys were carried out during the campaign and all but two were within three points of the actual outcome.
Political Socialization
Socialization refers to the process whereby we learn the culture and way of life of our society. An important part of this process involves political socialization, during which we acquire the political attitudes, values and preferences that affect our views on politics, our participation in political activities and the way we vote.
The influences that are directly involved in the process of political socialization include our family, school, workplace and the mass media. They are known as the agencies of political socialization.
Families
Our parents' attitudes can have a powerful influence on us. They can affect our views on political issues, our political values and our voting behaviour. If members of family are involved in a pressure group such as the Campaign for Press and Broadcasting Freedom, for example, then this is likely to raise our awareness of media issues. If our parents are from Ireland then we are likely to be more aware than others of issues surrounding the conflict in Northern Ireland. If they are actively involved in a trade union at work, hen some of their views may rub off on us.
Peer groups
Most of us are influenced to some extent by our peers or friends. The attitudes of peer groups may have an impact on our political views and participation. The extract on the right suggests that although membership of protest groups is open to anybody, in reality members tend no to be drawn from the whole community.
The workplace
Workplaces vary in their culture. In general terms, people who work in heavy industries, such as mining and shipbuilding have traditionally supported Labour. There is some evidence that public sector employees such as those in social work and teaching are more likely to support Labour and to oppose the public spending cuts of past Conservative governments.
The media
The media are increasingly important in the process of political socialization because, for most of us, they are our main source of information on political events, issues and personalities. The media set the agenda of public discussion and debate. This means that they decide which issues are important, newsworthy or topical. This gives them a lot of influence. The media create a general climate of opinion within out attitudes are formed.
Natalie Ahluwalia 11E
