THE NEW VOTER TRENDS, Socio-psycological Model and Issue Voting.
There numerous factors that influence voter behavior, and these influences act in complicated ways to dictate party support. However, there are two significant and easily exploitable trends in modern voting behavior, socio-psycological party attachment and issue voting. New Labor should exploit issue voting blocks in order to stigmatize voters who are not members of the white old rich male conservative elite. In this way Labor will build a base of party support that will remain loyal for the years to come. By supporting a few issues key to important socio-psycological voting blocks, the electorate will in effect get into the habit of voting Labor, or at least anti-conservative.
IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID
Although new trends in British politics offer Labor tremendous opportunity, the old trends may still create problems for Labor. The primary difference between Labor and Conservative is role of government in social and economic relationships and to what extent these should be left to the free market. Historically Labor government has led to periods of high unemployment, high inflation and economic instability. Despite ideological and political principals the central concerns of electors are at the root economic in nature. It is common to take one’s own and one’s family welfare into account when voting. The Thatcher dominance of the 1980s was a direct result of the incompetent labor economic policy of the 1970s.
Since the 1960s Gallup Polls have reported that the only three major concerns of the British electorate are unemployment the economy and inflation. Polls show that these answers are by far the most significant answers surpassing crime, law and order and the environment In fact, many political scientists point to the “Black Wednesday,” speculation against the pound as the single most important factor in the Conservative defeat of 1997. Likewise, if New Labor implements brilliant social policy and fails to manage the economy effectively the Conservative party will return to prominence. Therefore, jobs, inflation, and the economy must always be the primary concern of New Labor while taking advantage of the new trends in British politics.
CLASS
Since British politics are no longer governed by class conflict New Labor must cater to the needs of the a new class of political activists What class divisions do exist are characterized by consumerism and association, rather than income.. According to a study by Wallace and Jenkins the new class of predominantly middle class activists is a significant source of political activity in Britain. New Labor must monopolize support from these issue oriented groups by supporting its campaigns for animal rights, environmental protection, and education. Pressure groups such as the Royal Society for the protection of birds can have as many as 850,000 members and can be a valuable source of votes and campaign support. However, New-Labor must not become slaves to such groups. Responsible fiscal policy and employment must always be the priority of Labor Government. If excessive environmental regulation means unreasonable loss of jobs New Labor must opt to defend workers. Because of New Labor’s popular social policies during a sound economy the Conservatives will have a hard time finding support for their policies.
WOMEN
The next step in stigmatizing the W.O.R.M. Conservatives is to attract women into the party as well a support from women and women’s groups. Women now constitute 35 percent of Labor MPs but only 12 percent of Conservative representatives. Programs such as Labor’s “Women only” short lists ensured gender diversity within the party. Although New Labor can no longer exclude men from these lists they can still seek out and promote qualified women within the party. In recruiting powerful women studies show that women’s political activism directly relates to their economic level and their education. This is an excellent reason to recruit intelligent young women from Britain’s universities where Labor policy is popular. By recruiting women through traditionally “women’s issues” New Labor can stigmatize the Conservative party and develop a grass roots support base.
AGE
The age gap is a huge advantaged currently held by Labor. The conservative party is dominated by old men who are resistant to change and less open to the shifts in the modern British electorate. The conservative party also derives most of its support from older voters while the vast majority of younger voters favor the Labor or Lib-Dem parties. Even though young people are less likely to vote or participate in other traditional forms of political activism they can also be galvanized by political injustice. If young people are motivated they can serve as a swing force in traditional politics. Both Bill Clinton and Tony Blair retook political power by portraying a newer younger image. In order to encourage youth party participation and win votes New Labor must support young peoples issues. Under 35-s are particularly interested in help for the homeless (73%) disabled rights (71%), animal rights (66%) and increased funding for NHS(64%). Young people have also been influential in championing civil rights cases and environmental cases. According to Budge as a result of dwindling membership Labor decided to renovate and modernize the party by recruiting new, younger members. This led to a membership increase of 400,000, and aided New-Labor in their 1997 landslide victory.
Furthermore, the long term benefits of gleaning youth support far outweigh the short term ones. In order to bring about a new dominant party structure New Labor must chip away at the conservatives “core party vote.” The “Essex Model” estimates that 26.2 percent of the electorate would vote conservative regardless of their policy or popularity. By increasing the number of young loyal Labor and Lib-Dem supporters New Labor can gradually diminish the Tories’ core vote. As old members die off there will be less younger conservatives to take their place. If politically aware British youths find refuge in the Labor and Liberal Democrat parties the results could prove fatal for the Conservatives.
RACE
Although non-whites represent an almost insignificant portion of the electorate, 4.5%, the race issue is essential to New Labor’s effort to marginalise the conservative party. As the most visible of all of the UK’s cleavages race can provide an important point of departure from traditional Tory Politics. Labor should be able to win support of non-whites on the only issues that they differ from the rest of the electorate. Immigration, unemployment, housing, and law and order, are all issues where New Labor can associate with Britain’s non-white electorate. If this portion of the electorate consistently votes labor they can develop strongholds in urban areas where urban regeneration and housing issues are important. While this portion of the electorate is small and may not warrant significant resource support Labor must claim support from the non white community in order to increase the number of “secure” Labor constituencies and perpetuate the image of the Conservatives as rich white old men.
Although New Labor has experienced remarkable success in all of these areas, if they are to crush the Conservative party they must act swiftly in a time where young voters are embarrassed to support the conservative party because of this stigmatic image. If the Conservative party is given time to regroup and develop a Neo-conservative image, or to change the party to and “anti-European” support base they may be able to regain legitimacy and retain power. NL must launch a massive Public Relations(PR) campaign assaulting the conservatives. If the conservatives are allowed to reform their image or reorganize their party this can be viewed as nothing more than a squandered opportunity for labor dominance.
PARTY ORGANIZATION
The success of New Labor has been in its ability to finally present a unified front to the British people. It is essential that the party maintains the appearance of unity even on divisive issues. To smooth out the parties appearance they should increase the role of the un-elected campaign wing of the party. This organization would keep up-to date on public policy and voting tendencies. They would be responsible for party image (thus loyalty) as well as agenda. They would foresee potential party embarrassment as well as seeking out political hot buttons.
Compared with the divided and crumbling Conservative party, New Labor must appear smooth and confident, now is no time for scandal that might embarrass the party and detract headlines from the conservative disaster. Furthermore, Labor can continue to foster division within the Conservatives by offering deals to certain wings of the party in order to cause splits. The resent Blair-Cranborne deal over reform of the House of Lords is an excellent example. The news media jumped on the division in the opposition party and raised serious questions about Hague's leadership ability, jeopardizing the party reforms that he advocates. This is essential to the Labor cause, if the Conservative party is allowed to break the W.O.R.M. stereotype and reform in a new younger image Labor will be unable to replace them as a political force.
As part of new labors effort to define the Conservative party they must offer a pleasant contrast to the White Old Rich Male Conservatives. The W.O.R.M. stereotype is designed to perpetuate an image of conservatives as elitists, where self serving decisions are made behind closed doors in smoke filled rooms. In contrast New Labor must at least appear to be more democratic. Labor must be associated with Local, grass roots party participation. They should support the power of local governments, and local constituency parties. In contrast to the elitist conservatives the local grass roots support for the Labor Party will appear inviting and appealing.
TACTICAL VOTING and TARGETING
Simply increasing Labors popular support will not be enough to eliminate the Conservative party. Labor must make get voters who oppose Labor to vote for the Liberal Democrats. To do this Labor must take advantage of constituency targeting and the current trend toward tactical voting.
Budge reports that in 1887 tactical voting greatly benefited the Liberal Democrats, “for whom it may have helped double the number of seats they had in Parliament. The best estimate is that 25-35 seats were lost to the Conservatives through tactical voting in 1997”. If treated carefully Labor can work with the Liberal Democrats to target seats and challenge conservatives, rather than competing for votes. If Labor and the Liberals spend the next 3 years stigmatizing the image of conservatives as bitter elitists the Liberals will be able to challenge in traditionally conservative constituencies. In most contested constituency districts there should be only one Labor or Liberal candidate. With Lib-Dem targeting constituencies where they did well in local government. In 97 this tactic worked well for them in South-West England , their traditional strength, and to a lesser extent in Conservative South-East England were the areas where they picked up most of their new seats. This will prevent the Liberals splitting the vote with Labor allowing the Conservative candidate to take the seat. By conceding a few seats to the Liberals, New-labor can make the Lib-Dem party the primary opposition parties.
Once Lib-Lab has made the conservatives the third party in parliament they will become the victims of tactical voting, and the electoral system that has plagued the Lib-Dems for so long. In a system where Tories are the third party many conservatives will vote tactically for Lib-Dems as an opposition to Labor, rather than “wasting their vote” by voting Conservative. Even if the Conservatives win a significant proportion of the vote, they will not have enough seats to mount a serious opposition to Labor or Liberal Government. Eventually voters will get into the habit of voting for either Labor or Lib-Dem. The topics of debate will revolve around the differences between the two parties. The Liberal Democrats will move more to the right to consume much of the young conservative vote. At the same time Labor will move slightly to the left to draw upon Old Labor Socialists who abandoned New Labor.
If the Labor Party is able to accomplish the monuments task of bringing about a new era of British politics the rewards could be innumerable. First, this new paradigm will ensure the future of the welfare state and virtually eliminate sweeping reforms similar to those to the Thatcher era. In addition, Labor would be free to slowly return to the old labor policies abandoned in favor of the popular moderate Labor party. Finally, the leaders of the Labor party would have secured their places in the history books for successfully altering the course of British politics. However, if New Labor fails to take advantage of the Conservative party’s failure to respond to the new trends in voter behavior, they must regarded it as a squandered opportunity.
Bibliography
Ian Budge et al, The New British Politics (Harlow, Addison Wesley Longmen,1998).
Mark Evans, “Political Participation” in Patrick Dunleavy et al Developments in
British Politics 5, (Basingstoke, Macmillan, 1997).
Dennis Kavanagh, “Voting Behavior”, in Bill Jones et al., Politics UK, 3rd ed. (London, Prentice Hall, 1998).
A. King, “Why Labor Won – At Last” in A. King et al., New Labor Triumphs: Britain at the Polls (Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, 1998
Benjamin C. Salisbury
PO 524: The Government and Politics of Britain
Essay #2: Labor Dominance for the 21st century
Imagine you were a Labor Party campaign strategist. What advice would you give to the Labor leadership in light of recent research on voting behavior, and why?
Mark Evans, “Political Participation” in Patrick Dunleavy et al Developments in British Politics 5, (Basingstoke, Macmillan, 1997).112.
Ian Budge et al., The New British Politics (Harlow, Addison Wesley Longmen,1998).359 or Jones p 141
Dennis Kavanagh, “Voting Behavior”, in Bill Jones et al., Politics UK, 3rd ed. (London, Prentice Hall, 1998). 139
