Formulation Of A Theory.

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Formulation Of A Theory

The certain factors that influence the accuracy of estimation is mainly: Age, the time of day it is processed, gender and the style of the survey.

The reason age has an affect on the accuracy of estimation, is because if the person is too young or too old the survey may not be reliable enough in order for it to be processed into a data collection sheet the reason being that they may not be suited to the imperial or metric measurement used in modern days. The young may not have learnt the imperial measures and the elderly may not be used to the correct terms.

The effect, time has to getting good reliability is that the survey should be taken out at a convenient time of the day where food has been consumed properly and the people’s minds are focused. The times which may be irrelevant to practice a survey is early in the morning or late at night where people may be tired.

The gender may have a certain effect on the outcome of results because the males may differ in technical skills to females or it is possible that perhaps females are more capable of handling academical situations rather than males.

The style of a survey may affect the result because if badly constructed questions are used, people will not answer the survey properly and will try to avoid them. An example of a badly constructed question is ‘What is your age?’-This is personal. Many people will not want to answer.

An example of a well constructed question is ‘Which age group are you in?

0-20 21-30 31-50 etc.

A questionnaire is usually put together to test a hypothesis. The hypothesis that will be used in this questionnaire is:

‘Children will be able to estimate better than adults’.

Method

The data will be collected through a simple questionnaire. A stratified sample will be used. This is because in a stratified sample, the population that will be asked will be divided into categories. The sample size will be quite small with around 60 people being questioned. The proportions will be 30 children and 30 adults. The questionnaire will consist of four main questions. They are: Age Group, Gender, estimation for the line and the angle.

The age range will break up children (11-18) and adults (19-60). But the questioning of adults will only be done up to the age of 60. This is because I feel that people above this age may have difficulty in submitting their estimates as their metric skills may not suit the imperial measurements used popularly in modern days.

The reason Gender will be asked, is so that when processing the data collected, it can be represented in many ways separately or together for comparison. Another reason is that it is an ordinary question used in most surveys and questionnaires in similar subjects.

The steps that will be taken to avoid bias are to note down the people’s estimations straight away with the truth being considered in order to avoid changing answers so that the hypothesis is right from the start. In addition, the 60 people must be asked in order to prevent the survey look as though answers were written by yourself to complete the data collection sheet.

The line and angle will of course be measured accurately before the questionnaire will be carried out.

Before the actual questionnaire is carried out, I will do a pilot study to test the questionnaire. A pilot study is like a pre-test which is done in order to test something before it is done as an actual thing. In this case it will be done to test the questionnaire which will basically be based on proving my hypothesis right or wrong.

Please see the next page for a copy of my pilot study.

Pilot Study Questionnaire

  1. What age group are you in?

11-14                15-18                   19-24           25-34                35-44                45-60

     2. What is your gender?

Male                                        Female

  1. Please give a measurement of this line in cm:

   ________________________

  1. Please estimate the size of the angle in degrees:

Pilot Study

Following a pilot study which was carried out as a pre-test to 14 people, I found out that in order to carry out the questionnaire in a reliable way, certain measures have to be taken for the estimation of the line and the angle. The measure mainly includes:

Next to the questions we ask for people to estimate the length of the line and the size of the angle, we need to say:

‘DO NOT TOUCH THE PAPER’

This is so that people are aware that rulers and fingers are not to be used when estimating the line and the angle. So these are the changes that have been made and nevertheless, I can carry out my survey successfully.

My Questionnaire for the Guestimate Coursework

1. What age group are you in?

11-14                15-18                   19-24                 25-34                35-44                45-60

2. What is your gender?

Male                                        Female

3. Please give a measurement of this line in cm (DO NOT TOUCH THE PAPER)

   

      ________________________ 

4. Please estimate the size of the angle in degrees (DO NOT TOUCH THE PAPER)

Following my questionnaire, the data that was obtained from 60 people

-30 children and 30 adults, I am ready to process certain calculations and tabulate my results. This will be done firstly by finding the mean from a grouped frequency table. This is relevant for my processing of the data because I can find out the average of those who estimated and altogether find out if the mean is anywhere near the actual answer.

Secondly, I will use the Deviation to compare results and the percentage error of course in order to find just by how much they wrong by or if any were not wrong at all.

Thirdly, I will use Cumulative Frequency tables and diagrams,

and Box Plots in order to process my calculations one step further and also make it pertinent to this processing of data by finding the Median and Interquartile Range. Also the work carried out using these statistical terms will help make my work more substantial.    

Finally, I will use Histograms to represent my data because I feel that using a histogram to represent my data more in depth than most other graphs. Certain calculations have to be done in order to achieve a proper and accurate histogram.

So overall, using the data I collected from the 60 people in the questionnaire, I will take the data through a series of statistical measures so that in the end it will be presented professionally.

 

Tabulation of Data

The table below shows how many of each gender was questioned to each age group and the total amount of people asked on each age group. The reason the ages will be grouped is because doing 60 individual data calculations will not be appropriate and so the ages will be grouped.

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The table below shows that the age groups have united in order to produce a simple children/adult frequency. So the overall children age group is 11-18 and the adult group is 19+ (19-60). Also note that the group category of the line estimation is both values inclusive. I.e. 7-8 is in more depth like 7.1-8 cm. Also the group category for the line and angle estimations will also be grouped because handling 60 different data with each person’s estimate will not be appropriate and so it will be grouped. The grouping will also help with the calculations ...

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