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A simulation study of the Mark-Recapture Method by using Lincolns index

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Introduction

Ishaan Khanna Candidate Number: 002603-011 ESS Practical Planning A simulation study of the Mark-Recapture Method by using Lincoln?s index. Research Question: How does the accuracy of the mark recapture method get affected by varying the number of marked individuals? Hypothesis: At the end of the experiment we should be getting the exact population in the beaker. Input Variable: Number of marked individuals Output Variable: Number of extracted marked individuals Method: A simulation study of the Mark-Recapture method by using Lincoln?s index. First we put a random number of seeds into a jar. Then we start from a certain number say ?M?, and we extract that number from it and mark them. We replace the seeds back in the jar and shuffle them. ...read more.

Middle

Materials required: 1 beaker. Up to 50 seeds and 50 marked seeds. Raw Data No. No. of Seeds Marked (M) No. of seeds extracted (C) No of seeds marked extracted (R) 1 5 25 2 2 3 2 6 25 3 3 2 3 7 25 1 2 2 4 8 25 2 1 1 5 9 25 3 1 2 6 10 25 2 3 3 7 11 25 1 1 2 8 12 25 3 2 3 9 13 25 2 4 3 10 14 25 3 4 3 Processed Data No. No. of Seeds Marked (M) No. of seeds extracted (C) Average Number of seeds marked extracted (R) Average population (MC/R) Percentage Accuracy[(Average population/total Number of Seeds)*100] 1 5 25 2.333333 53 23 2 6 25 2.666667 56 25 3 7 25 1.666667 ...read more.

Conclusion

Graphe and Correlation done via Microsoft Excel 2010. Average population: 109.9 Actual Population: 223 Discussion: When 11 was the number of marked seeds accuracy was the highest. It should actually have been the highest accuracy when the number of seeds was the highest. The Correlation Coefficient shows a Weak positive. Strengths: Remove bias: By Randomly putting seeds in beaker (not knowing number of seeds). By randomly choosing number of seeds extracted (C) and keeping it constant. Weaknesses: No basis to start with. (Number of seeds marked.) During Shuffling seeds at bottom of beaker don?t move so easily. Conclusion: The Correlation Coefficient shows a Weak positive and the graph does not show any relation between the two fields. Therefore as per the data collected there is no definite relation between the variation in the number of marked individuals and the accuracy of percentage of the mark recapture method. ...read more.

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