The growing European divide had led to an arms race between the main countries. In the 19th century, the position of Great powers were defined by military power. Triggered off by the alliance system, the arms race was also an important component of Weltpolitik and the Agidir Crisis. The arms race was seen as a long-term trend of European militarism. Britain had the largest navy while Germany had the largest and most well equipped army. During this time period, with a political, diplomatic and social emphasis on military power as a marker of a nation’s strength and prestige, Bismark took Germany on a conquest to increase Germany’s territory and rival Britain. This militarism was the cause of fundamental tensions between the European powers, together with the alliance system, especially between Germany, France and Russia. Bismarck successfully created a situation in which Italy and Austria-Hungary would be attracted to ally with Germany and from this militarism, the 2 opposing alliances emerged- The Triple alliance and the Franco-Russian alliance. This rival alliance system sparked off a short-term arms race. The occurrence of 30 July 1914 manifested this arms race when Russian general mobilization led to German mobilization against France and Russia. Both alliance systems expanded their armies. France expanded its Army by 250,000 men while Russia ventured into the Great Programme, which would modernize and expand the Russian army by 1917. The arms race also led to the Anglo-German naval race which was the basis for Weltpolitik. Through weltpolitik, Germany aimed to produce a naval to rival Britain’s Royal navy as the German Kaiser envied Britain’s naval strength. Thus Germany wanted to match it in both its military and naval power. The Agidir crisis worsened relations between Britain and Germany and the next two years witnessed the height of the Anglo-German arms race. The arms race was a paradigm of using military strength to gauge a nation’s strength, which led to an inevitable race between the two alliances and thus increased tension.
The German Weltpolitik was a world policy, which planned to make Germany a world power by acquiring a large overseas empire. The sole intention of this policy was to make Germany a leading world power as it sought to expand, strengthen itself and raise a formidable empire that would rival those that already existed, specifically Britain’s Royal navy. This policy demonstrated the aggressive approach that the Germans wanted to implement, which resulted in friction with other nations. There are 5 main reason why Britain adopted such an ambitious policy and this more authoritarian approach. The first reason was that the expansion of Germany towards being an expansive, strong and formidable empire was seen as a natural development of Germany. Secondly, the idea of social Darwinism had led Germany to believe that the German race was superior to other races and thus Germany was convinced that it was its destiny to rule large parts of the world. Thirdly, Germany believed that they could and wanted to rival Britain’s naval power. Weltpolitik involved building a strong naval power and through this, Germany believed that it could win support from industrialists who would win contracts to build the fleet. And lastly, Kaiser being the nephew of Britain’s Queen Victoria greatly admired and envied Britain’s naval power, he was worried about his lack of prestige in comparison with Britain’s empire and thus it wanted to equal Britain. The last reason was a more personal reason as compared to the other four reasons. The policy aimed to make Germany’s presence abroad commensurate with her new industrial might. The desire of Germany to equal Britain in terms of naval power soon escalated into something serious which Germany was resolute to achieve thus starting an inexorable arms race between itself and Britain. Despite Germany’s constant attempts to outdo Britain’s naval power, Britain was still ahead of Germany. Britain decided to widen the gap between itself and Germany by introducing a vastly more powerful class of battleship-the HMS dreadnought in 1904. This fueled the Germans to follow suit by upgrading its production line to a new standard. Germany’s quest for overseas colonies caused Britain, France and Russia to bury their colonial differences, which resulted in the Entente Cordiale between Britain and France. This meant that Germany would now have to face a stronger and larger opposition, which upset Germany. As a result of this, Germany was dangerously isolated instead of emerging as a formidable world power. The isolation of Germany was manifested in the Moroccan crisis when it failed to gain support from other countries to recognize the Sultan of Morocco as an independent monarch and free of French influence. All in all, this policy was seen as a precipitating factor towards the WWI. It was a short-term cause as it only further challenged the two alliances thus causing increased hostility and friction between the two power blocs. The aggressiveness exhibited by this German foreign policy had indeed rattled many powerful nations thus tensions continued to exist and escalate.
The Agadir crisis referred to the time when the Germans sent their gunship, “Panther”, to the port of Agadir in 1911. This was seen as the first sign of German’s expansionist element, Weltpolitik, and the first sign of force using naval means, which shocked Britain. As a result and in response to this, there was a 197% increase in ships during 1900-1912 in Britain. Due to the Agadir crisis, French reaction to the compromise settlement destroyed the administration of Joseph Caillaux, whose main aim had been achieve some measure of reconciliation with Germany. Joseph Caillaux, who was pro-peace was replaced by Raymond Poincare, who was a more aggressive and patriotic leader. Germany and Britain had intended to reduce their naval arms however due to the Agadir crisis, tensions were worsened so they started to increase the arms again. The gunboat, “Panther” was seen as a threat to the British empire’s navy. Germany had also wanted to prove their prestige and power. However, all they got was compensation. This later led to the activation of the Schlieffen plan, which ultimately brought in Britain due to the invasion of Belgium by Germany. It was a short-term cause as it had happened 3 years before WWI. It was seen as a spark in enforcing the other causes of the Great War and thus only played a contributory role in causing WWI.
By 1906, Germany had produced a war plan-The Schlieffen Plan. Germany believed that it would take France would take 2 weeks to mobilize and Russia, six weeks. Germany decided to attack and defeat France first, then turn their entire army eastward to confront the Russians. The plan involved attacking France through Holland and Belgium. However, the plan faced amendments, which omitted Holland. The Schlieffen Plan was activated on 31 July 1914. The movement of the German army into Belgium led directly to the British decision to declare war on Germany by 4 August 1914. Therefore, the Schlieffen Plan had caused Britain to be involved in WWI, which Germany was trying to prevent. This can be seen as careless play by the Germans because they were unaware of the agreement which existed between Belgium and Britain. All in all, the Schlieffen caused the direct involvement of Germany in the Great War. However it was a short-term cause and was not a significant cause of WWI as compared to the other causes, which had played a more obvious role in causing WWI.
The Balkan wars which was suspected to have led to the July crisis occurred between October 1912 to August 1913. It introduced an age of modern warfare encompassing mass armies, machines and entire civilian populations. The outbreak of the Italio-Tukish war “broke the ice” for the Balkan governments. It diverted the attention of and depleted the resources of the Ottoman Empire to the advantage of the Balkan states. The Balkan states saw a good opportunity to free themselves from the influence of the Turks and hence, the Balkan League was formed. It included Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece and Montenegro. The complex and obscure Balkan wars of 1912-13 represent the beginning of an era in European history dominated by nationalism and conflict. The wars also witnessed the intervention of the Great Powers of Europe, which played a huge role in helping to shape the resolution and settlement of the Balkan wars. The Balkan wars comprised of the First Balkan war and the Second Balkan war.
In the First Balkan war, the Ottoman empire fought a loose alliance of Balkan states. The combined armies of the Balkan League overcame the numerically inferior and strategically disadvantaged Ottoman armies and thus achieved rapid success. As a result, the Turks were driven out of their European territories and Adrianople and Janina was assigned to Bulgaria and Greece respectively. Under a peace treaty signed in London (30 May 1913), the Turks lost all of its remaining European territories, which included Albania and Macedonia. In 13 March 1912, Serbia and Bulgaria signed a treaty, which assigned Northern Macedonia to Serbia and Southern Macedonia to Bulgaria. Serbia reached the Adriatic of Durazzo, which gave them an important sea port. Austria-Hungary and Italy opposed to this acquisiton as they feared that a Serbian port on the Adriatic would eventually became a Russian port and this might threaten the Habsburg monarchy. Hence to enable Austria-Hungary to maintain its prestige and security, it insisted on Albanian independence. Serbia however, still continued to thwart over designs on Albania and acted in partnership with Greece to occupy the part of Macedonia, which was set aside for Bulgaria. The treaty of London ended the First Balkan war and following that, a quarrel over the spoils of war eventually caused the Second Balkan war. In the Second Balkan war, Bulgaria fought a looser coalition of Greece, Serbia, Montenegro, Romania and the Ottoman Empire. The second Balkan war was definitely not in favour of Bulgaria. The peace treaties signed in Bucharest in August 1913 and Constantinople in September 1913 concluded the Second Balkan war. Bulgaria was forced to cede territory to Serbia, Greece and Romania. Also, Adrianople
was returned back to its original owner, the Ottomans.
The Balkan wars eliminated the Ottoman Empire from Europe and also established a frail but independent Albanian state. The conclusion of the Second Balkan war resulted in Greece, Montenegro and Serbia renewing their attempts to further their own interests in the expanse of Albania. Serbian troops invaded Albania and initiated a rule of terror against the Albanian population. This in turn caused Austria-Hungary, with German support, to present an ultimatum that demanded the evacuation of the Albanian territory, causing Serbian troops to retreat. The whole procedure followed at this time was later duplicated in July 1914. In response to the ultimatum, the Serbs announced that their soldiers had left Albania. The Austrian-Hungarians had established a precedent for dealing with a Balkan crisis. “This time, the Balkan powder keg’s fuse had fizzled out and in the next crisis, the July crisis, it would ignite.” The Balkan wars had left the region dangerously unstable. The losers were eager for revenge while the winners were recklessly overconfident. Great Powers were also actively interfering in the area and tensions soon came to a head.
The July Crisis was triggered by the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, Bosnia on 28 June 1914 by Gavrilo Princip, a member of a Serbian terrorist organization. The July crisis was deemed as the immediate and direct cause of the war. The assassination of Franz Ferdinand provided the Austro-Hungarian government with a ready made excuse to launch what it believed would prove a limited war against the manifestly weaker Serbians. Austria Hungary used to assassination to declare an ultimatum to Serbia on 23 July 1914, with the encouragement of the Germans. However, the terms were so extreme that it was impossible for Serbia to accept. Serbia could not satisfy fully Austria-Hungary’s demands thus Austria-Hungary declared war on the 28 July 1914. Russia immediately gave strong support to Serbia by mobilizing its army on 29 July 1914. This Russian mobilization alarmed Germany, thus Germany had to act rapidly to deal with France before the Russian machine was fully operative. This led to the activation of the Schlieffen plan. On 31 July 1914, Germany demanded Russia to stop mobilization and for France to formally declare its neutrality. However, Russian mobilization did not cease, thus this led to Germany declaring war the following day. France’s inevitable refusal also led Germany to declare war on France through the Schlieffen Plan. Germany had planned to keep Britain out of the war. However, due to the invasion of Belgium by Germany, Germany had carelessly dragged Britain into the war. The July crisis can be linked to the Balkan Wars. Tension between Austria-Hungary and Serbia was already building up when Serbia emerged from the Balkan wars as the most powerful of the Balkan states and thus felt confident enough to threaten Austria-Hungary. The Alliance system has also caused the various countries to take sides during the confrontation. The July crisis was a short-term cause, which sparked off the war, but it was also a result of building tension in the previous decades and all of this accumulated up till the eruption of the Great War of 1914.
The proximity and similarity of the experiences in the Balkan Wars and World War I emphasizes the connection between these conflicts. As a result of the Balkan Wars, the Balkan area evolved into a labyrinth of ethnic tensions, nationalist groups and Great power rivalry. Thus, we can say that the Balkan wars were the “first phase” of WWI and it created a perfect setting for WWI to take place. The Balkan wars had enabled Serbia to emerge with both its prestige and power enormously increased. Serbia then became the most powerful Balkan state and thus felt confident enough to threaten Austria-Hungary. Furthermore, Serbia’s victory over Bulgaria left Serbia as Russia’s remaining ally in the Balkans. The lost of Bulgaria made Russia dependent upon Serbia in order to retain its influence in the Balkans. The consequence of Russia’s dependence became manifest at the end of July in the July crisis. The Balkan wars had caused tensions to arise between Austria-Hungary and Serbia specifically and this strained relationship further worsened during the July crisis which directly involved the two rivaling countries-Austria-Hungary and Serbia. In addition, Austria-Hungary was backed up by Germany while Serbia had the backing of Russia which in turned was supported and an ally of France. Hence, this alliance system, which existed in Europe since the 19th century involved all the Great Powers of Europe in World War I.
In conclusion, the statement-“Wars frequently begin 10 years before the first shot is fired” can only be agreed to a minimal extent as it only applies for the formation of the alliance system. On the other hand, the most important and main causes; the Balkan wars and the July crisis, were short-term causes which occurred 2 years before the start of the Great War. Thus, I agree to the statement only to a small extent.
