Define the Problem

         The central problem in the Afton Industries case concerns itself with preparation of the company’s pricing strategy and competitive advantage after a five percentage point plummet in the company’s 1997’s unit market share.  Afton Industries had been a price leader for asphalt shingles in their region for years.  The competition typically followed Afton’s regional pricing leadership until Afton decided to raise its average price per square on asphalt shingles from $40.50 to $44.50.  Senior management in the company was using the increase to finance a plant modernization and expansion program; contrastly, the competition did not follow the price leadership of Afton in this instance.  Also, Afton is challenged with determining accurate economic projections for the roofing industry and discovering how these economic projections could influence the company’s ability to perform.  Afton must properly assess the life cycle of the industry in order to maximize the company’s utility and performance.  According to 1998 figures about the industry, about 135 million asphalt shingle squares were manufactured in the United States and the industry has recorded consistent growth since 1991 with dollar sales reaching approximately 6.5 billion in 1998 at manufacturers’ current prices.  The expansion in the industry has been the longest in more than a generation.  Historically the industry has been cyclical in nature, marked by three to four years of sales growth followed by a sales slowdown and decline.

        Based on this cycle, projections have been made.  There is a 50 to 60 percent chance of two percent growth in 1999 and a 40 to 50 percent chance of a five percent decline. One of Afton’s problems is determining how and possibly when in the course of the following business year will the projections, whether favorable or unfavorable, will affect the company’s performance.  Also, Afton must analyze at what levels profits can be maximized given the forecasted data and their pricing strategy.  The company must determine profits generated by maintaining current price and comparing 2% market demand growth with 5% decline.  This must be done for all prices levels that the company is considering in order to accurately determine what combination of price and projections will yield a greater profit for the company.  This will allow Afton the effectively estimate profit impact from price changes.

Enumerate the Decision Factors

When enumerating decision factors, one must identify two different areas, alternative courses of action and uncertainties in the competitive environment.  In the case of Afton Industries, they are trying to utilize a market-penetration strategy which allows them to gain a greater dominance in a market which it already has an offering.  This strategy involves attempts to increase present buyers’ usage or consumption rates of the offering, attract buyers of competing offerings, or stimulate product trail among potential customers.  Market penetration involves gaining market share as opposed to maintaining it (consolidation). When the overall market is growing, penetration may be relatively easy to achieve, because the absolute volume of sales of all firms in the market is growing and some firms may not be able to satisfy demand. In static or declining markets, a firm pursuing a market penetration strategy is likely to face intense competition. In 1998, Afton increased its average price per squire of the asphalt shingles from $40.50 to $44.50. The price increase was driven to embark on an extensive plant modernization and expansion program. However, Afton's major competitors did not follow the price increase decision this time. During 1998, the company's market share declined by 5 percent, 49 to 44 percent. Essentially, Afton Industries must decide to keep their current price of $44.50, decrease their price to $40.50, or cancel the plant modernization and expansion program.  

In the roofing industry, the marketplace is very competitive and Afton must utilize a strategy that insures a consistent approach to offering their product in a way that will outsell the competition. However, in concert with defining the marketing strategy Afton Industries must also have a well defined methodology for the day to day process of implementing it. It is of little value to have a strategy if you lack either the resources or the expertise to implement it.  In the process of creating a marketing strategy you must consider many uncertainties. Of those many uncertainties, some are more important than others. Because each strategy must address some unique considerations, it is not reasonable to identify 'every' important factor at a generic level. However, many are common to all marketing strategies. Some of the more critical are described below.

Afton Industries must begin the creation of their strategy by deciding what the overall objective of their enterprise should be. In general this falls into one of four categories:

  • If the market is very attractive and their enterprise is one of the strongest in the industry they will want to invest their best resources in support of their offering.
  • If the market is very attractive but their enterprise is one of the weaker ones in the industry they must concentrate on strengthening the enterprise, using their offering as a stepping stone toward this objective.
  • If the market is not especially attractive, but their enterprise is one of the strongest in the industry then an effective marketing and sales effort for their offering will be good for generating near term profits.
  • If the market is not especially attractive and their enterprise is one of the weaker ones in the industry they should promote this offering only if it supports a more profitable part of their business or if it absorbs some of the overhead costs of a more profitable segment. Otherwise, they should determine the most cost effective way to divest their enterprise of this offering.
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Having defined the overall offering objective and selecting the generic strategy Afton must then decide on a variety of closely related operational strategies. One of these is how they will price the offering. A pricing strategy is mostly influenced by Afton’s requirement for net income and your objectives for long term market control.  If near term income is not so critical and rapid market penetration for eventual market control is desired, then you set your prices very low.

Environmental factors positively or negatively impact the industry and the market growth potential of your product/service. Factors to consider include:

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