Nomis Labour market statistics can also be produced in such a way as to enable comparison of employment by sector in a specific local authority with Scottish and UK statistics. Appendix II shows reports for Renfrewshire with respect to the key sectors of banking, finance & insurance; service sector; public administration, education & health, manufacturing; and tourism. This data indicates that employment has grown in Renfrewshire from the mid ‘90s in banking, finance & insurance; the service sector; public administration; and education & health, while manufacturing and tourism have declined (it is perhaps worth acknowledging that the nature of the tourism industry may mean that it is less appropriate to evaluate this data at regional level). NB The indirect benefits of tourism can be more difficult to quantify and it can been less straightforward to measure the part tourism plays in local economies.
Drilling Down…
All Local Economic Forums produced Labour Market Profiles 4 in 2004. The table below illustrates the broad similarity in labour market trends across Ayrshire, Lanarkshire, Glasgow, Argyll & the Islands and Renfrewshire. This data confirms Nomis statistics regarding the growing importance of Public Services as an employer along with the decline in manufacturing. It is also worth noting that male employment and the number of full-time jobs in Renfrewshire are reported has having decreased between 1997 and 2002. It is probably reasonable to assume that the expanding public transport network in Glasgow and Glasgow Airport itself are in part responsible for the growth in transport and communications noted below for Glasgow and Renfrewshire.
*Future Skills note that research published by the Policy Research Institute (2002)showed that Jobcentre Plus
notified vacancies represented around 31% of actual vacancies
While this data should be treated with caution, it is interesting nonetheless that the vast majority of vacancies reported across the West and South West of Scotland are within financial & banking services.
Labour Demand/Supply Projections: What should this tell us about UoP provision?
The Labour Market Projections for 2004 published by Futureskills Scotland5 illustrate, as shown below, that increases in employment are anticipated in the sectors of business & financial services, distribution, retail & catering, Public Services and Other Services.
http://www.futureskillsscotland.org.uk/web/site/FSSReports.asp?subtypeid=9
These national projections clearly indicate that continued growth is anticipated in public and other services; distribution, retail & catering; and business & financial services (albeit that public and other services are projected to grow at a slower rate, having experienced considerable expansion over the last twenty years). It should be noted that regional data is not deemed by government agencies to be sufficiently robust to permit projections at a local level.
Although Scotland’s population has been in gradual decline since the 1970s6, the working
population has grown. While the population is projected to continue to decline, the proportion of those in work and seeking employment is anticipated to remain relatively stable, or decrease slightly. Scotland’s mature population is also anticipated to reduce in numbers (as set out in other papers available via the Planning & Development Office). It will be important for the institution to respond to these factors, particularly in light of the decrease in the number of secondary school pupils7 anticipated by the Scottish Executive, which indicates a reduction in demand by school leavers for full-time HE places.
In consequence of these projected shifts in demographic and employment trends, it is likely that demand for full-time provision from both school leavers and those in employment will decline. As those in employment seek to update existing skills and/or develop new skills, increased demand for part-time and work-based provision will increase. This will not only have implications for the types of programmes which will be in demand, but will also result in a need to continue to develop flexible modes of delivery that fit around the lives of working people.
Given the projected expansion and contraction of the industrial sectors as outlined above and bearing in mind projected population decline and makeup, this may well be an appropriate time for the University to reconsider its subject mix. It will be vital for the institution to evaluate where priorities lie in terms of future development and rationalisation.
Skills Issues
The drive to promote lifelong learning is ongoing on the part of the Scottish Executive, as is its aspiration to develop a “knowledge based economy”8: “Vocational skills are about more than specific job-related skills – they are about not only knowledge, but also attitudes and behaviour…Higher education has a crucial role to play in developing these attitudes, behaviours and skills”.9 Futureskills Scotland surveyed over 7,500 employers in Scotland about vacancies, skill shortages, skills gaps and training. Key concepts and definitions used within the report Skills in Scotland 2004 include the following:
- Vacancies can be defined as hard to fill for a variety of reasons, including issues connected to the quality and volume of applicants
- Skill shortage vacancies are hard to fill vacancies where shortfalls are identified in connection with skills, qualifications and/or experience
- Skills gaps are identified by employers where they believe some of their existing employees are not fully proficient
A summary of Futureskills’ findings by Local Economic Forum is inserted below. While it is worth bearing mind that Futureskills report that overall “neither skill shortages nor skills gaps are a cause for substantial concern”, this data indicates that Renfrewshire (of the five Forums within the sample group) had the highest proportion of establishments reporting skills gaps.
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00401-01.asp
Issues for consideration include the following:
- In 2004, 25% of vacancies in Scotland were skill shortage vacancies
- 55% of hard-to-fill vacancies were hard-to-fill because of a skills shortage (as a proportion of all vacancies, hard-to-fill and skill shortage vacancies were most prevalent among skilled
trades and sales and customer services)
- Although Futureskills report that the training and education system in Scotland generally
appears to work well for employers, they are “more likely to report that employees and
applicants have weaknesses in their ‘softer’ skills”, such as teamwork, communications skills, problem solving ability, leadership skills and planning
- Hard-to-fill vacancies and skill shortage vacancies were significantly higher in the areas of
financial intermediation; real estate, renting & business activities; and construction.
While Futureskills indicate that skills gaps and shortages are not deemed to be in evidence to such a degree as to cause concern, the results of this survey do illuminate potential areas for development of UoP provision. Alongside projected changes in industry in terms of labour demand and anticipated population decline and change in structure, the skills gap agenda further confirms that if the institution is to address the changing needs of regional industry and population, now is the time for the institution to re-evaluate its offer.
The Personal Development Planning agenda will go some way to promoting the importance of the development of transferable skills, which will be important in supporting students to develop their soft skill base. The UoP led, SHEFC-funded Isle Project10, will enhance the PDP process by which students will increasingly plan both their education and career options. Projected change in the labour market and in population structure offer the opportunity for further development of part-time and CPD provision, which would also contribute to shortening skills gaps and consequently the employability and earning power of UoP graduates.
10 http://www.paisley.ac.uk/news/response-news.asp?id=670
Knowledge Transfer, Research & Development
SHEFC funding with respect to research and knowledge transfer is contingent on historic income generated by the institution in these areas. The following graph indicates the notional SHEFC funding earned per full time academic member of staff at Paisley and indicates that, traditionally, research and knowledge transfer have not been large sources of income to the University. Appendix III, taken from the SHEFC grant letter11, shows that UoP’s SHEFC grants for research have dropped from £758,000 in 2004/2005 to £728,000 in 2005/2006. This appendix also highlights the drop in knowledge transfer income generated by the University, which dipped from £193,000 in 2004/2005 to £172,000 in 2005/2006 (see Appendix IV for a further breakdown on knowledge transfer income by ‘activity’). Despite a sector-wide increase of knowledge transfer funding of 31.6%, Paisley’s income from this grant fell by 10.9% this year. Given the increased precedence afforded by the Funding Council to this area of activity, if UoP is to improve its funding position, it must seek to develop research & development and knowledge transfer activity.
Knowledge Transfer Partnerships are an excellent means of promoting collaboration with local industry as well as attracting funding. Knowledge Transfer Partnerships can provide funding (via the Scottish Executive) for one or more students to undertake project work and pay for academic time. Partnerships on this basis are also beneficial to the University in that students will often want to undertake a PhD (while working for the local company), which also attract SHEFC funding. In addition, SHEFC fund Knowledge Transfer Partnerships fairly generously via the Knowledge Transfer Grant. A further example of how UoP might better capitalise on existing knowledge transfer threads, might be to develop bespoke CPD provision in order to address skills gaps in collaboration with existing industry partners.
Conclusion
UoP’s Mission Statement undertakes both to: “deliver innovative high quality applied, relevant higher education programmes with the opportunity for students to benefit, where possible, from work based learning” and; “…enable students and other learners, irrespective of their social background, to realise their full potential within a rapidly changing social and economic environment” The University’s social and economic environment, both regionally and nationally, are indeed rapidly changing. To meet its mission statement and to ensure it continues to meet the educational needs of the West and South West of Scotland, UoP must respond to the changing demands of the labour market. Broadening engagement with local industry via knowledge transfer will not only open up new funding streams to the institution, but will also ensure that UoP develops its relationship with local employers on whom it may ultimately rely for future students. UoP is about providing students from a ‘non-traditional HE background’ with access to knowledge, education and ultimately to improve their employment opportunities. It is vital that UoP provision is meaningfully to the particular needs of the ‘Paisley student’ against the backdrop of their local area, and this means providing programmes which are plugged into the demands of the local labour market.
