Market Analysis - Cement industry in India

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Introduction

 

Cement is an important input for the construction industry for building houses, commercial complexes, and for infrastructure development. Cement industry accounts for the second largest share (the largest being cigarettes) of the total excise collection by the Government.

India is the second largest producer and consumer of cement in the world, after China. In 2002-03, in India, the total capacity of large cement players (over 50 cement players) was at around 139 million tonnes. (Large cement units accounted for over 95 per cent of total cement capacity). The cement consumption was around 107 million tonnes.

Around 95 per cent of the total cement production is consumed domestically and the balance is exported. The important end-use sectors for cement include the housing segment (accounts for around 52 per cent of total demand), infrastructure projects and industrial projects excluding roads(around 14%) repairs and maintenance segment(around 18%) and government demand(around 15%). And demand from roads (around 1%).

        

Cement is a key infrastructure industry.  It has been decontrolled from price and distribution on 1st March, 1989 and delicensed on 25th July, 1991. However, the performance of the industry and prices of cement are monitored regularly. 
Cement sector has been a beneficiary of Government’s increased focus on infrastructure and housing. Cement has been witnessing a strong growth in the last two years, due to a combination of the National Highway Development Project (NHDP) and the housing boom (driven by a low interest rate regime). The Government’s infrastructure related initiatives (announced during the 2001-02 to 2003-04 period) will continue to boost cement demand.Over the next 5-6 years, the NHDP and the new project (road component alone) are expected to account for 4-5 million tonnes of cement demand every year. This could result in double-digit growth in the cement sector over the next five years.

Capacity and Production

The cement industry comprises of 125 large cement plants with an installed capacity of 148.28 million tonnes and more than 300 mini cement plants with an estimated capacity of 11.10 million tonnes per annum.   The Cement Corporation of India, which is a Central Public Sector Undertaking, has 10 units.   There are 10 large cement plants owned by various State Governments.   The total installed capacity in the country as a whole is 159.38  million tonnes.    Actual cement production in 2002-03 was 111.35 million tonnes as against a production of 102.36 million tonnes in 2001-02, registering a growth rate of 8.84%.

Keeping in view the trend of growth of the industry in previous years, a production target of 126 million tonnes has been fixed for the year 2003-04.   During the period April-June 2003, a production (provisional) was 31.30 million tonnes. The industry has achieved a growth rate of 4.86 per cent during this period.

Regionwise Cement Production - (ton)

 

Regionwise Cement Dispatches - (ton)

Source:CMA

Buoyed by a strong surge in demand, especially in the northern and western regions on the eve of the elections, the cement sector is finally set for big-ticket growth, according to experts.

Exports

Apart from meeting the entire domestic demand, the industry is also exporting cement and clinker. The export of cement during 2001-02 and 2003-04 was 5.14 million tonnes and 6.92 million tonnes respectively.  Export during April-May, 2003 was 1.35 million tonnes.  Major exporters were Gujarat Ambuja Cements Ltd. and L&T Ltd.

Cement exports(mn tons)

Source:CMA

Technological change

Cement industry has made tremendous strides in technological up gradation and assimilation of latest technology.  At present ninety three per cent of the total capacity in the industry is based on modern and environment-friendly dry process technology and only seven per cent of the capacity is based on old wet and semi-sdry process technology.

 There is tremendous scope for waste heat recovery in cement plants and thereby reduction in emission level.  One project for co-generation of power utilizing waste heat in an Indian cement plant is being implemented with Japanese assistance under Green Aid Plan.  The induction of advanced technology has helped the industry immensely to conserve energy and fuel and to save materials substantially.   India is also producing different varieties of cement like Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC), Portland Pozzolana Cement (PPC), Portland Blast Furnace Slag Cement (PBFS), Oil Well Cement, Rapid Hardening Portland Cement, Sulphate Resisting Portland Cement, White Cement etc.   Production of these varieties of cement conform to the BIS Specifications.


Demand and supply scenario

Demand for cement is a derived demand as it is directly related to the demand for construction. Demand for construction comprises of both Public Sector and Private Sector. Irrigation, Power, Defense, Railways, Public Works Department etc are the major sources in the Public Sector Demand. Construction of residential houses, office buildings, hospitals, institutions and industry etc are the major sources in the Private Sector Demand.

Narrow supply-demand gap, and absence of fresh greenfield capacity, cement capacity utilization is expected to reach 95% in FY05. As far as supply is concerned, no major capacity additions are coming up in the next two years.

source:fortune India july 15 2003

source:fortune India july 15 2003

     Demand Supply (Mn Tonnes)

                                               

Source : CMA, UTI Sec. estimates

Monthly dispatches trend

Source: CMA

Demand drivers

An increase in demand is expected and there may even be a shortage  situation in the medium term. No new large capacity is expected to come up in the next 3 years. Any new project planned now would have a gestation period of at least 3 years.

  • Housing sector, which contributes 55% of cement demand is set to grow at 50%p.a for the next 4 years. This sector has witnessed unparalleled growth during the last few years due to declining interest cost, steady real estate prices and fiscal incentives provided for tax purpose. In future this sector is expected to contribute to 70% of total cement demand.
  • Demand growth led by the infrastructure spending will fuel demand by an additional 10mn tons in next 4 year. The Golden Quadilateral will consume 4mn tons and north, east , west, south (NEWS) corridor will consume around 6mn tons.

Demand estimation from infrastructure projects

Source:industry

  • Industrial demand contributes 14%for the cement demand. With likely GDP growth of 6-6.5%the industrial sector is set to grow at 5-7%. This will augment demand for cement from industry side.

Thus on account of these growth drivers, the demand/supply is expected to grow at 8%-9% over the medium to long term. Also strong order book position will push up the demand for cement. The current order book position of the companies IVRCL, NCC, HCC is 2-3 times in FY04. IVRCL, NCC, HCC  have shown a huge spurge in their order books positions over the last year. The order book position of IVRCL, at the end of FY04 is expected to be 14.9bn and is expected to be close to Rs 30bn by the end of  FY05. The order book of HCC has increased from Rs.33.5 bn at the end of FY03 to 39.8bn on march 31 2004. similarly, NCC has an order position of about Rs 15bn, against an expected turnover of about Rs 6bn in FY04P. while the order book position of Gammom construction is 4500 crores. The companies are constantly pitching for contracts and are expecting more orders by the end of the year.

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The April-June quarter witnesses the strongest demand for cement, and the pace gathers further momentum from mid-May.

Cement Consumption regionwise

Source: CMA

South India is the largest cement-consuming region with 27.4% share in consumption. The region also ranks no.1 in terms of installed capacity. Eastern region’s consumption  share ahs grown from 13% in FY01 TO 17.8% in FY03. the region has been witnessing surge in consumption since last few years. Western region’s  consumption grew by 7%yoy basis in the first quarter, however production grew by 13%. The state ranks 2nd in terms of installed capacity. North ...

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