Now let’s take a peek at the competition in the cellular market. In 2001 the cellular market was over crowded with providers at local and national levels. There were six major national carriers viz. Cingular, Verizon, VoiceStream, Alltel, Sprint and U.S.Cellular. AT&T had affiliates providing services nation wide and there were few local providers. Industry penetration was close to 50% with about 130 million subscribers and the market was considered to have reached maturity. Service providers normally provide their subscribers with handsets at a subsidized rate for about $100 to $200, a convenient charge to acquire consumers. The pricing plans are post paid and are based on buckets (fixed monthly fee plus additional charge for overage. The price plans are often very confusing to the users and they normally have to do some math to find out what is the best plan for them so they wont get over charged or pay extra if they over use their service minutes. Peak calling hours confused users as they were not as flexible to consumer usage. Normal monthly fee came along with several hidden fees. The providers normally make their revenues by the off peak charges, government taxes and other hidden fees. The service providers invested heavily in advertising expense due to high churn rate and keep attracting existing customers.
When Virgin wanted to enter the US market one of the key decision they had to make was to find the best price for the consumers. They were able to keep their cost low by utilizing MVNO. Their advertising budget consisted of only $60 million which was about 10% of the major service provider Verizon (they were expected to spend about $650 million). They were able to contact with Kyocera to build phones that supported the Virgin extras and keep the cost comparable to other providers. They also decided to target the market that was paid least attention to, group of 15-29. Their plans and features were geared towards that market. This market had users who were under 18 and had no credit. They were not consistent users of their minutes. This market consisted mainly of high school and college students. When it came down to pricing they had three options that they could choose from: 1. Clone the industry price with better off peak hours and more features. 2. Price below competition with lower per minute charge and target only 100 -300 minute users. 3. Develop a new plan that would get rid of contracts, prepaid service, no hidden fees (these are the features the target market really needed). It would be better if we can quantify the results from the three options.
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Clone the prices: Under this option Virgin will still be charging the same amount per month. The handsets will be priced around the same amount. In addition to that customers will be charged off peak fees and hidden fees. The churn rate will be the same as the industry’s: 2%. Let us look at pros and cons of this plan. Please see Exhibit 6 for break even analysis.
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Price below the market: Under this option virgin will target the most used minutes market and decrease the price for 100-300 minute users. Here prices will be lower than market. The handset prices again will be the same and we get the benefit of the same market churn price. Please see exhibit 7 for break even analysis
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Completely change the plan: Under this option Virgin will introduce a new plan to the market. This will get rid of hidden fees and contracts. This will be a pre-paid service so the consumers will not be confused by the bucket principle. They will be able to provide subsidy for handsets. They will also be able to concentrate on the target market which is left un-served. There are some concerns along with the pros, the current user base (92%) has post paid plans, so we will only be able to target users that use the cell phone infrequently. This will result in high churn rate as we there is no safety net or reason for the users to return. The research has indicated that the Acquisition Cost cannot be higher than $100. They will also need to develop a new method so users can add minutes conveniently to their existing cards. Please see exhibit 8 for break even analysis.
Based on all the reasons stated I would recommend to go with option 3 because this plan will definitely give us positive LTV (Exhibit 1). The exhibit also shows that our margin will be higher than the industry average which is a huge advantage. We will also be satisfying lots of customer needs such as no contracts, no hidden fees, no off peak charges etc. We will also be able to concentrate on the market that has been left. Also based on Exhibit 2, the break even AC is 225, but ours is only 100, so we will be able to spend more money on Advertising. We can also either make the quality of the handset better or lower price. Based on Exhibit 3 our cost is only 11.37.
Let look at the marketing penetration used by Virgin. The primary goal of virgin to maximize sales and that will be achieved by lower price. They are willing to target a market that is not being served, which will change the saturated market to open market. That market has a very high elastic demand. There will not be close competition. The churn rate is very high for the pre-paid customers but most of the money will be covered by AC. Their fixed costs are very low and thus they can spend more money in advertising. Bottom line with 15 cents per minute and 30$ per hand set revenue virgin is bound to succeed.
Exhibit 1: LTV Calculations for the 3 options
Exhibit 2: Break even point.
Let LTV = 0 then
-> 0 = M/(1 - r - i) – AC
-> M = 0.11 AC
-> AC = 24.77/0.11
-> AC = 225
Exhibit 3: Break Even Per customer
Revenue = Cost
Xtras + minute usage = CCPU + AC Cost
Exhibit 4: Cost structure
Exhibit 5: Competitors Prices
Competitor’s Prices
ARPU of $52 with 417 minute of use
60 – 20 c per minute for < 100 minutes
20 – 12 c per minute for 100 -300 minutes (Virgin’s Target Market)
35 – 50 c per minute for Pre-paid Costumers (Virgin’s Target Market)
∗ Source: http://web.virginmobileusa.com
∗ average bill is $52 and average cost to serve is 30, hence profit = 52-30 = 22