He also predicted that a worldwide information network linking almost all organizations and tens of millions of individuals will emerge. He was dead-on right on this one. In 1995 the internet was privatized and the World wide web was born, and the rest is history. Again, if you were someone working in the NSF, or were part of ARPANET, then you could easily have made this prediction. But again, we have to give him some props were getting this right.
He predicted that the vast majority of commercial music will be created on computer-based synthesizers. This is also very true, but I think lot of people were already doing this back in the 80’s. It was a very logical transition.
He predicted that in warfare, there will be almost total reliance on digital imaging, and other software-based technologies, and whoever has the smarter machines will win the war. This prediction did come true, but it is also true, that in the war in Iraq of recent, US still required a lot of human power to win the war, and it seemed to me that men power is what won the war, not the software technologies. Of course men power meant more spying, gathering information, using high tech gadgets, but I think this was true all throughout the 20th century.
He predicted that many documents never exist on paper because they incorporate information in the form of audio and video pieces. Well, I guess that is true, but I also don’t think that it is a significant prediction. I believe such files existed in the late 80’s also; a file that incorporated video and audio.
He predicted that reliable person identification, using pattern recognition techniques applied to visual and speech patters, will replace locks and keys. From the looks of it, that does seem to be happening, but overwhelming number of organizations and people still use locks and keys. I personally have not seen a lock or key using visual or speech recognizing technologies in real life; I’ve only seen them in the movies.
He predicted that a technology required for translating languages will come to exist in sufficient quality for a first generation system by the late 1990’s. I believe this has come true, although the technology is still very raw, and not really usable. As I am a bilingual, I have tested out translating Korean into English using translation websites, and the result, although seemingly well written at first glance, was not comprehensible. But with some improvements, I could see the potential in it.
If you look at each of his individual predictions separately, they really don’t seem to be all that innovative and insightful and some are just straight dull. Perhaps many could have predicted one or two of his predictions correctly, but to have predicted all of them correctly, is something of an achievement, and you really have to take your hat off to him. And another thing. Perhaps his predictions weren’t as dramatic as his predictions in the new book, such as that we will all be living in a world of virtual reality, but they all did come true, so I think he passes the reliability test with this one.
But we still can’t just take his predictions just because he was right a few times before. We have to examine if indeed his new predictions are something that could happen, because all of his previous predictions were something that educated and knowledgeable people could have also agreed with. Let’s examine a few of his predictions by year and see if we can reasonably agree with him.
He predicts that by year 2009, we will be carrying at least dozen computers in our body. It’s year 2003, and we don’t carry around dozen computers in our body, but most of us carry at least one, a cell phone, and many of us carry a cell phone and a PDA. Some carry their MP3 player with them, and digital camera. It’s very possible that in few years to come, we will be carrying more gadgets in our body, so carrying dozen gadgets by year 2009 doesn’t seem to be too far-fetched. However, we do have to note that lot of these gadgets are being combined into one, so that we don’t have to carry dozen gadgets. For instance, the new Kyocera 7135 phone has camera, mp3 player, PDA and cell phone capabilities all in one portable gadget. If this is the way things are going, a convergence of technologies into one unified component, we may actually only carry just one powerful gadget by year 2009, not dozen.
He also predicts by year 2009, that computers will routinely include wireless technology with very high bandwidth communication. This is already the case in 2003, and reliance wireless technology will continue to grow. Not really rocket science here, but again, we have to give Kurzweil props for getting this right in 1998, but again, I think many would have predicted the same back then as well.
By year 2009, most education will be done through the use of computers according to Kurzweil. Books will still be used, but most reading is done on displays. Learning is becoming a significant portion of most jobs, and training and development of new skills is emerging as an ongoing responsibility in most careers, as level of skill needed for meaningful employment soars ever higher. All of the above predictions have come true already. Again, this is something many could have predicted quite easily along with Kurzweil back in 1998.
He also predicts that ten years leading up to 2009 from 1999, will be that of continuous economic expansion and prosperity. Well, he surely bombed on this one, as we have hit a low point of economy in the United states not seen in decades. However, people around 1998 would have predicted this along with Kurzweil, which just proves that Kurzweil didn’t predict anything unique.
His predictions overall of a world in 2009, is not a vastly different world from the world we currently live in. After all, it is only 11 years away from the year Kurzweil wrote the book, which leaves us with somewhat dull common sense predictions. However, it doesn’t stay dull for too long, because starting year 2019, things start to get somewhat interesting in the future world of Kurzweil.
By year 2019, he predicts that Most paper documents would have been scanned and are available in a network. Most learning is done via intelligent software based teachers. Teachers are viewed more as mentors and counselors than as sources of learning and knowledge. All of the above, are already happening, or are very close to happening.
By year 2019, computers will be largely invisible and embedded everywhere. I can see that happening, as chips get smaller and smaller, they will be almost invisible to us. Three-dimensional displays will be built into people’s glasses or contact lenses. He says there will be virtual reality displays, similar to those popped out images in old sci-fi movies. This is something I am not sure will happen. But I will not be surprised if this did happen by year 2019. It does not seem so far-fetched to think that this will happen anymore.
Kurzweil says that generally disabilities such as blindness, deadness, and paraplegia will not be noticeable and are not regarded as significant. There are already significant improvements made in this area of disabilities, and I think it’s reasonable to think that in 20 years, lot of them will be cured or helped by technology that allow them to function normally.
He also says that all-enveloping tactile environment will be widely available and fully convincing. This means that you can have virtual reality sex. He says that people actually prefer to have sex in the virtual reality world than in real life because of it’s ability to enhance both experience and safety. People will be beginning to have relationships with automated personalities as companions, teachers and caretakers and lovers. That means by the time I’m in my mid forties, I’ll be having sex with a virtual partner. Now would that be considered cheating or what (assuming that I will be married and have a wife then)? This prediction, that this virtual reality world will exist, is one of the biggest predictions Kurzweil makes, in my opinion, and I think this is something that we will have to wait and see. His predictions in subsequent years rely heavily on this prediction. Let’s move on to year 2029.
By year 2029, almost all of his predictions are so ‘out-there’, that I seriously don’t know how to comment on them except to go, in the words of Neo in the Matrix ‘Wow’. Lot of them have actually been seen on some sci-fi movies. Kurzweil predicts that by 2029, a $1000 computer will have computing capacity of 1000 human brains. Human brains have been decoded and their massively parallel algorithms have been deciphered. This means that computers can mimic human brains. Three dimensional holographic displays are everywhere. Microscopic nano-engineered robots now have micro brains with computing capacity of a human brain. Human learning is accompanied by implants. New knowledge is created by machines with little or no human intervention. Communications will involve use of direct neural connections, which is basically a more enhanced version of virtual reality world (In 2019, it required to enter a total touch enclosure). Creation of knowledge is the focus of the world, and there is significant struggle over intellectual property rights, with ever increasing levels of litigation. There are many more lawyers than doctors. Largest profession is education. Many of the leading artists are machines. Life expectancy of human is now around 120 years old. Discussion of legal rights of machines will grow, particularly those of machines that are independent of humans.
What did I tell you? Wow. I’ll be in my mid 50’s by year 2029, and I would not have lived half my life expectancy yet. That’s wild. 2029, is not that far off. Less than 30 years from now, all of this will be happening. I will be running around with robots, not knowing if they are robots or humans. Will Harrison Ford still be living then, but this time actually reenacting the movie Bladerunner for real, chasing after robots? After year 2029, he jumps to year 2099, and it he just goes nuts on this one.
By year 2099, people will be living inside the virtual reality world. Most people anyway, except for those who are too conservative and old-fashioned to think that you need a body to live. Your partner in the virtual reality world, a computer program of course, will be a far better partner than your human equivalent one. The richest guy still in 2099 will be Bill Gates! This is Matrix right here. Before the end of this century, we will all be living inside a Matrix.
Kurzweil’s predictions in his prior book The Age of Artificial Intelligence was written in the late 80’s to predict the future in the late 90’s. He predicted what will happen in a 10 years. He was quite accurate in that prediction. In his newer book written in the late 90’s ,The Age of Spritual Machines, he makes predictions for year 2009. That’s another prediction for something that will happen in 10 years. He has a proven track record on that, and it’s not surprising that he’s on target yet again. We are only 5 years away from 2009, and his predictions have already come true or are right on target to be. His predictions for 2019, which is a 20 year prediction, something he does NOT have a track record of, also do not seem too far-fetched. They are believable. But his predictions for year 2029 and beyond, seem to require a little more imagination and faith. Who knows if the world will be like Kurzweil describes it 25 years from now, but if it is, we better be ready for it. For one, I’m going to try to go to law school, because it sure seems like that’s a field which will be very important in the future.