The Prominent Trends in Information Technology

Chuck Revenew

CR0005253

COSC 13L1-N

Fall Term

For the purposes of this paper the term Information Technology (IT) will encompass the aspect of compter systems hardware and software in both the business world and the home computing world. This paper will explore and supply information across both vertical markets.

The first exploration will deal with home computing trends; including what is new, where consumer interest lies and what is predicated for the future. Secondly the business market will be discussed under the same criteria, again what is new, where business interests lie and what is predicted for the future. A summation will then close the subject of the Prominent Trends in Information Technology.

IT is moving so fast that it is difficult to predict what the future will hold based simply on recently marketed products. This is especially true in the home market because of the needs and whims of the general consumer public. In essence one cannot look at only what the product producers are bringing to the market, but must also consider the general publics hot spots or what is going to appeal to the market the most. The general consumer public is comprised of a very broad base of needs and wants, therefore for companies to predict what the consumer wants and what will be hot and what will not is more difficult in the general consumer populace than that of the business world.

The home computing market has exploded in growth over the years this is primarily due to the use of the Internet. Following are some recent statistics for

U. S. usage of the Internet, both at home and in the business environment:

We also see more home computers connected to the Internet as depicted in the following graph:

In addition, even with the current economic slow down, PC sales have made some recent increases, however it is important to note that these gains in sales are not for the general desktop computer being used in the homes of many Americans. The increase has sustained from the sales of laptop computers. This is the first quarter in PC sales that the laptop has overtaken the traditional desktop as the PC of choice. These numbers are supported by an article written by Robyn Greenspan an author of CyberAtlas. Ms. Greenspan states ““American computer users are moving beyond their desks, as findings from The NPD Group indicate that May 2003 was the first time the dollar sales of notebook computers surpassed the dollar sales of desktop computers in U.S.

Retail computer product sales posted their best year-over-year sales results in nearly four years, jumping 13.6 percent over May 2002 to nearly $500 million. Laptops accounted for 54 percent of the share — more than double January 2000's sales volume of 25 percent. Unit volumes also set a record in May 2003 as notebooks accounted for more than 40 percent of sales.

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"May results were driven by consumers' desire for mobility, combined with aggressive pricing and robust configurations," said Stephen Baker, director of industry analysis for The NPD Group. "Selling prices fell below $1300 for the first time ever, more than $250 below May 2002 even while 80 percent of notebooks sported 15 inch screens and 86 percent provided customers with a CD burner."

Why is this? This author believes it is due to the public’s need for mobility and not being tied to a single point be it a desk at work or home to access the tools and Internet so frequently used by the PC home enthusiasts. In addition as stated in the quote above, a price pressure point was reached where the homebuyer ascertained that laptops where now at a price point to make them competitive with desktops.

If mobility is important to the general consumer public and the public is buying laptops to fill this need a point could be argued that the consumers have experience with home computers and most likely this experience comes through the use of desktops. This argument can be expanded to ascertain that the buyers of laptops already own a desktop. If this argument is accepted then these buyers have two computers in the home and as noted from the Internet usage chart above, frequently use their computers to access the Internet. So the general consumer public wants mobility, has multiple computers at home and has frequent usage of the Internet.

This points to the wireless network, a hardware tool that has recently gained a large acceptance by the home user. Why is this so? If you have multiple home computers, a DSL or cable modem for Internet access and want mobility without having to run wires all over the house for connectivity – wireless is hot.

The main parts needed to set up a wireless network consist of:

• High-speed Internet access

• At least one computer (laptop or desktop)

• An 802.11b Wireless Access point

• An 802.11b connection device (PCMCIA, CompactFlash, or USB depending on the device you want to connect)

For the purpose of this paper we will consider the wireless access point and the connection device or PCMIA the future trends items for IT. What is a wireless access point and what do the numbers 802.11b stand for? The 802.11b is a wireless standard, 802.11b is an extension to 802.11 that applies to wireless LANS and provides 11 Mbps transmission speed. The 802.11b is an enhancement to the original 802.11 standard, allowing wireless functionality comparable to Ethernet.

The Wireless Access point is a wireless router. They look similar to this:

This device allows you to plug in your high speed Internet line and share this line to many different computers. Some models also have built in firewalls and a print server to allow for printer sharing. The cost of these access points or wireless routers are approximately $60.00 to 80.00 dollars.

Earlier we discussed the growing popularity of laptop computers. So for consistency we will address the connection device only under the realm of a PCMCIA card.

A PCMCIA card for wireless connection looks like this:

PCMCIA stands for “Personal Computer Memory Card International Association, PCMCIA is an organization consisting of some 500 companies that has developed a standard for small, credit card-sized devices, called PC Cards. Originally designed for adding memory to portable computers, the PCMCIA standard has been expanded several times and is now suitable for many types of devices.” This card allows for the wireless connection between your Laptop computer and the wireless router. The approximate cost of a PCMCIA card is $50.00 dollars

So for approximately $110.00 and an easy set up procedure a homeowner can forego the wiring nightmare associated with multiple PC’s on a server and enjoy the added benefit of using either computer in any room of the house or on the back porch. This has market strength.

What will the future trend of these two networking products look like? While they offer wireless connectivity how will they grow market? The prediction of this author is they will change in standards. Now we have the 802.11b wireless standard. As years progress a higher standard will come out that offers tighter security protection such as asymmetric encryption, and higher transmission speeds, above the 11 Mbps standard.

To summarize, wireless networking is one of the most exciting technologies to come around in years – it will enable you to work away from your desk while still being connected. You can work outside, in another room or wherever you want to take your laptop. The only restriction for this home setup is that you usually need to stay within 500 feet of the inbound source or your cable modem.

Now what about Business IT trends. This section of the paper will deal with a trend that is becoming popular because of a federal ruling dealing with data management of personal medical records. The federal ruling is called HIPAA. HIPAA stands for Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act. This act requires medical data to be private and all record formats to be standard across 13 transaction types. The act prohibits medical data to be sent over an open network without encryption or security. The large medical plans used to push data across open networks, now that is prohibited. In summary the medical insurance companies, state insurance regulators, and providers have to start transmitting data securely. This demands strong security products and a private network for a geographically dispersed WAN (wide area network). In comes the VPN or Virtual Private Network. A VPN is “constructed by using public wires to connect nodes. For example, there are a number of systems that enable you to create networks using the Internet as the medium for transporting data. These systems use encryption and other security mechanisms to ensure that only authorized users can access the network and that the data cannot be intercepted.” A VPN is a compelling business solution because they provide the highest end-to-end security at hard wire speeds with sizable cost reductions compared to a private network. This is why the VPN’s are so popular and are growing in numbers yearly. To quote an article in WEB Host Industry Review, “worldwide firewall revenues totaled $1.7 billion in 2001, while revenues for VPN hardware totaled $1.3 billion. The company predicted the firewall and VPN hardware markets would reach $3.8 billion and $2.9 billion, respectively, in 2005.”. A VPN is a money saver needing very little oversight once it is deployed. After all a large portion of the logical network is the Internet itself. So financial projections through the year 2005 and growth in usage and security strengths make the VPN a hot business trend in the coming years.

In conclusion, what is hot in the home and business IT world? In the home it is the laptop computers, wireless routers and PCMCIA cards, all offer increased mobility over the previous home computing environment.

In the business IT world the VPN or Virtual Private Network is hot and predicted to get hotter because of its’ ability to provide dependable and high-speed connectivity without the heavy financial cost of a hardwired private network.

References:

- How wireless internet works,

- Trends 2003 A Look to the Future

- “Introduction to Wireless Networking”, DNJ, The independent journal for professional software developers working with Windows technologies

- The World's Leading Resource for Internet Trends & Internet Statistics, Cyber atlas

- Notebooks Overthrow the Desktop, By Robyn Greenspan

- Setting Up a Wireless LAN, Part 1, Jason Dunn - Wed Aug 14, 2002 11:00 am

- Wepopedia, Wednesday, June 25, 2003

- WEB HOST INDUSTRY REVIEW, February 21, 2002

- The World's Leading Resource for Internet Trends & Internet Statistics , Cyber atlas

- from newstory, Stanford Online report

- Notebooks Overthrow the Desktop, By Robyn Greenspan

- Wepopedia, Wednesday, June 25, 2003

- Electronic Gadget Depot

- Wepopedia, Thursday, February 06, 2003

- Wepopedia, Thursday, April 10, 2003

- WEB HOST INDUSTRY REVIEW, February 21, 2002

The Prominent Trends in Information Technology

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