Evaluate the reasons for variations in electoral turnout.

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Parties & Voters in the UK                                                                                                         M.Patel

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Evaluate the reasons for variations in electoral turnout.

Voting remains the most all-embracing form of political participation and it is an activity that typically involves a very substantial proportion of the mass population. The level of turnout varies in different countries. The lowest turnout was for the European Parliament election in 1999 (23.1 percent). Elections for local councils in England during this period had turnouts of 30 percent and the inaugural election for the London Mayor attracted only about a third of the electorate to the polls.1  Turnout varies for different countries. In Comparing Democracies (Le Duc et al 1996) it shows that in five countries turnout is 95 percent whereas four countries show turnout averaging at 60 percent. So why are there variations in turnout? In this essay I will discuss the reasons why people vote and look at certain general elections. I will see what measures can be used to improve turnout and furthermore I will analyse the evidence of determinants of turnout.

There have been three main approaches of theoretical thoughts to explaining variations in turnout, which I will discuss in more detail throughout the essay. The first concentrates on the social locations and circumstances of voters. The second focuses on the connections between parties and voters and how parties mobilise voters and the impact of voters’ identification with the party. The third derives from the rational choice theory, especially the work of Anthony Downs (1957).

Franklin (1996)2 argues that the answer of low turnout does not lie in increasing levels of education or political interest of the citizens but to manipulation. The effect of education might be additive with effects of political interest, party identification. He goes on to say that people vote due to resources such as knowledge, wealth and time. The classic formulation of this approach was first derived by Verba and Nie (1972) who proposed what they called a “baseline model” of political participation that generated a level of participation from education, income and occupational variables.3 Turnout will be higher to a minimum when there are more incentives to vote and costs are kept to a minimum.4

Turnout is frequently measured by calculating the number of people who voted against the number on the electoral register and this can create inaccuracies. This is because the electoral register is compiled on the basis of household returns every October. It then comes into action in the following February and last for one year.5 This shows by this time it is sixteen months out of date. As I said one reason why there are variations in turnout is due to social explanations. In areas where people are mostly renting, it is likely they will move within a year and therefore turnout is low for that particular constituency. There are fewer turnouts amongst households with no car, ethnic minorities, private tenants, manual workers and young people aged between 18 and 29. In a general election, turnout varies across constituencies. For example, in the 1997 election, turnout ranged from 82.2 percent (Brecon and Radnorshire) to 51.6 percent (Liverpool Riverside).6 In 1992 the election took place during a university vacation and as most of the students had returned home, constituencies with large resident student populations recorded turnouts were much lower than usual.

There are many people who do vote even though there has been a decline in turnout over the last thirty years. Young people who are most engaged in politics are those who come from better-off backgrounds, who intend to remain in education the longest, and those whose parents are themselves well-educated and civic minded. Even if class-based voting turns out to have declined in Britain with the advent of New Labour a more potent threat to democracy may be emerging in the form of a growing gap in political engagement and turnout between the more educated, richer parts of the population and the rest. Many people vote due to reasons of civic duty. Voting is highly regarded in many countries, which have democratic societies, and persistent non-voting can be regarded as socially unacceptable. Secondly people vote because even though it may be seen as a duty, it can also be fun. Voting is an “easy” form of political participation. It barely requires any individual effort, initiative, skill or sacrifice. Thirdly, it is relatively “cost-free” in terms of time spent.

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The first-past-the-post electoral system makes voting rather pointless in seats that are safe for one of the parties, and leads parties to focus their local campaigns on a small number of “target” seats.  In 2001, only 51 percent of voters voted for the winning candidate, the votes of the remaining 49 per cent could be said to have been wasted in that they did not help to elect anybody. Increasingly campaigns are focused on target seats and the major parties almost ignore constituencies in which they have little chance of winning.9 This does not give the electorate an incentive ...

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