The current protest in Egypt. The populations view on the current situation is that since the army took power in Hosni Mubaraks place, nothing has changed for the better.

The current protest in Egypt

Isvoranu Diana Cristina

Presenting the situation

Nine months after the Egyptian population overthrow Hosni Mubarak they are back to protest in Tahrir Square. After his resignation, Hosni Mubarak handed power to the Supreme Council of Egyptian Armed Forces (SCAF) with the leadership of the country. Thus Egypt became a country ruled by the military. The council declared that it would hold power for six months, or until elections could be held. But even after 9 months new elections haven’t been held and the army intends to change the constitution in a way that they will have more power that the next president. Among the Egyptian population there is a growing fear that the ruling military council is trying to keep hold of power behind the scenes, even after they formally hand power to a new president, maybe later next year. The population’s view on the current situation is that since the army took power in Hosni Mubarak’s place, nothing has changed for the better. Activists feel the army has failed to dismantle remnants of the old regime or deal with the faltering economy and festering social problems, seeking instead to consolidate their hold on power. The population is also resentful on the fact that the current army regim is imposing a regim of tyranny. Since taking power the council has overseen the trial of 7000 people in closed military trials, including bloggers, journalists and protesters. Those trials were unjust and closed to public opinion, many challenging the regim have been ruthlessly tortured or killed.

Analyzing

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Analyzing

On the international scene The United States called for restraint on all sides and urged Egypt to proceed with elections despite the violence. The European Union also echoed that message and said the EU was keen to monitor the polls to give credibility to the elections held by SCAF. Once again the revolution in Egypt was helped to started with the help of social networks. On November 9th a global call was made on a forum for people to join in stopping the military trials in Egypt. On November the 11th protest worldwide in 20 (New York, Oakland, California, London, Paris, Frankfurt, Manila, Montreal, etc.) cities have responded to the online networks calls as part of a global day of solidarity to "defend the Egyptian revolution". The world wide popular opinion is supportive of the protesters. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), the current ruling political party is made of 20 military members, each of whom were also in power in the old regim of Mubarak. The chairman for SCAF is Mohamed Hussein Tantawi (also the current acting head of state). The army is clearly much more organized that the protestors and has many more resources at their disposal. Even if the protestors aren’t so well organized as the army, and they are split in much smaller subgroups (The Revolution Youth Coalition, The Muslim Brotherhood, the normal Egyptian civilian that wants a better life and women that want equal rights to men) they are far more organized than 9 months ago. Within days of the beginning of the protest they already assembled a hospital, in the protesting areas. The military tried to reach the makeshift hospital many times but they failed, because it was defended by protestors. Volunteers on motorbikes carry casualties from the skirmishes to the make shift hospital, so it’s clear that we have a degree of organization. Very involved in organizing the protest are The Muslim Brotherhood Egypt's oldest and largest Islamist organization and the Revolution Youth Coalition (an organization created by young Egyptians during the time of Mubarak’s protest). The protestors are using phones to take pictures of the violence displayed by the army, that are then broadcasted on the interned. This brings more support and encourages protestors to join. This degree of organization is due to the fact that the protestors already had some experience in how to behave and proceed, because of the Mubarack protests. The current situation is in no way peaceful, the conflict has turned violent. Currently 26 people have been killed and many more injured. The protestors want the military to step down from political involment all together and for civilian government to replace the military government. The military in stead have grown accustomed to power and are reluctant to give it up. Even if they give it up, they still would like to rule from the shadows (hence the reason why they want to change the constitution). The protest puts both the current government and the protestors in a difficult position. They are both interdependent. The government at this point is using brute force (tear gas, beatings, rubber bullets, etc) to scare the protestors and give up, or at some point they will have to appease the people. Because it’s a civil conflict the conflict can’t go on for a very long period of time. Doing so would hurt the economy, the culture of the country and it will be bad for everyone. The military government is unable to use extreme force publicly to scare the protestors because that would bring the EU Human Rights on their head and they will make bad international image. In my opinion the best step would be to open negotiations, but the only thing the protestors will accept is for the entire SCAF to resign and make due on the promises when Mubarak resign. The protesters are putting immense pressure on SCAF in that direction and are very confident. In my opinion SCAF will sooner of later have to comply in a way or another with the demands of the protesters, and the longer they wait, the more the protest will intensify.

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