Why is Electoral Turnout Declining in Most European Countries? What Difference, if any, does it make?

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Why is Electoral Turnout Declining in Most European Countries?  What Difference, if any, does it make?

Elections are vital to representative government in Europe and posess both pratical and symbolic significance.  However, of recent times, a “downward trend (in voting) in most (European) countries” has occurred.  (Powell, 1980, 6-8)  There are many important factors which affect voting turnout.  In this essay I will outline many of these factors which have resulted in the declining electoral turnout.  I will also look at the problems at will or may cause, and will briefly look at some possible solutions to the problem.

According to the political scientist Andre Blais, a great number of influences over time and across nations have resulted in the decline in electoral turnout in Europe.  These influences include economic development, the degree of illiteracy in a country, the presence or absence of compulsory voting, the voting age, the electoral system in place and even the population size and density. (Blais pp43)  Other socioeconomic factors such as age and income status can also draw a parallel with voting rates.

What makes people decide to want to vote is an important question in accounting for the recent decline in voting.  This was a question first addressed by Down (1957). Down believed that a person’s decision to vote depended on a matter of benefits versus costs.  Down’s believed that a person would only vote if the benefits outweighed the costs.  “The benefits term is based on how much difference the citizen sees between the candidates on issues, weighted by the citizen’s probability of affecting the elections outcome by voting”. (Nemi, Weisberg pp16)  The costs include the time spent in getting registered, going to the polls, following the campaign, marking the ballot paper and so on.  One must decide whether the time spent doing this would be better spent doing something else.  Nemi and Weisberg claim that the “cost (of voting) may be small but the probability of one individual affecting the elections outcome is so tiny that nonvoting is a rational choice for many citizens”. (1993 pp16).  This in my opinion is probably the biggest reason for non-participation in elections.  The chances of one individuals vote affecting the outcome of an election is so small that as a result many people feel that it is a waste of time voting in something which they know little about in the first place.

On the other hand reasons why people do vote include such issues as to avoid the regret of having not voted and seeing their preferred candidate lose by one vote.  In this case, one calculates the loss associated with various outcomes and chooses the option which minimises regret.  This is called the “maximax regret criterion”. (Blais p5)  Many other people believe that it is wrong not to vote and they cast their vote out of a sense of duty.  They feel as if they are “affirming allegiance to the political system”(Blais, pp4)  A further reason why people vote is if group leaders and politicians make it as easy as possible for their potential supporters to vote for them, and therefore work to reduce the cost of voting.  

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Other alternative explanations as to why people vote include how much money, time and civic skills an individual has.  Someone who has very little spare time is less likely to vote than someone who has plenty of it.  Also if a person is surrounded by friends, family and neighbours all of them who participate in voting, then that person is also more likely to vote as they may feel embarrasses not to have voted.

Evidence suggests that there are two dominant factors which seem to have the most profound effect on voter turnout rates.  These two factors are ...

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