Risk Analysis    

Running head: RISK ANALYSIS

Risk Analysis

      Luis Gonzalez

    Leslie Nankervis

       Antonio Sims

                                  Ruby Lovett – Starks

                                     Karen Wyckoff

University of Phoenix

                                   Professor Piwtorak

                                    August 31, 2004

                                   Week 3/Team One

                


Risk Analysis

There are steps businesses can take to minimize the risks and maximize the benefits of exporting.  AKLLR needs to develop an effective business strategy before investing and trading internationally. Factoring in AKLLR’s strategy, the steps being taken to manage the risk, and how much this is going to cost the business.

Political / legal / regulatory risks:

Political: The government has made it quite clear that is unable to fully support a society where people live longer and where jobs for life no longer exist.  Increasingly it is promoting a need for individual responsibility, especially in education, health, retirement and social benefits such as unemployment, disability and legal aid.  The free market is being actively encouraged to meet these needs, though it is often directed through political decisions.

Risks:

  • Government's legislation will shift unprofitable levels of risk and administration onto financial services suppliers.
  • Consumers will have easy access to understandable financial information such that they become more discerning and demanding of financial services suppliers.

Legal: Insurance products are a contract usually requiring a signature of both parties.  A life policy document has collateral status and can be sold to a third party or used as security against a loan or mortgage.  General insurance products are less stringent, and many are bought over the 'phone without any form of signature (e.g. travel insurance).

Risks:

  • Legal requirements for electronic commerce become onerous.
  • Electronic commerce security features cannot keep track with the expertise of hackers. Consumers fail to gain confidence in the use of electronic commerce.
  • Electronic commerce accentuates consumers buying on price.
  • Electronic commerce opens the flood gates to foreign insurers.

Regulatory Factors: Generally the government is trying to dismantle controls, leave pricing and quality standards to market forces and individual negotiation.  However, a number of financial scandals are forcing it to introduce new legislation to protect consumers of financial products and to enforce best practices through regulatory bodies.                                                                                Risks: 

  • New legislation and codes of practices proves to be onerous on insurers and even off-putting to consumers.
  • Pension’s legislation set low maximum administrative levels and high minimum transfer values.

The process of reaching a decision whether to proceed with a business proposition can be difficult anywhere in the country.  In China physical distance and cultural differences make the process even more difficult and risky.

        Post WTO China is the world's biggest new market.  Much of this massive opportunity lies as yet untapped, but any Western business seeking entry into this market faces profound cultural complexities.  The most dangerous effect of this cultural complexity for the western businessperson is that it makes it very much more difficult to assess commercial and financial risk realistically.  

        From a commercial perspective, businesspeople in each culture look for different kinds of 'signpost' when considering a possible business opportunity.  This is partly because some types of data that are taken for granted in the West are not easily available (if they are available at all) in China, and partly because of different views as to what is crucial in establishing a business relationship.  These differences can be a danger for the unwary Western businessperson.

Exchange and repatriation of funds risks: AKLLR have decided to establish or expand our business in China.  Before committing resources, we need to find out which banks to use, whether we can borrow from them and the procedures for profit repatriation.  There are other related issues of interest, how to protect the investment against political and foreign exchange risks.  Foreign Companies’ share of total loans granted in China is only 2.2%.  Clearly the reason for the under-utilization of financial resources in China is a lack of knowledge about the local banking system.  Although more than 200 foreign banks have offices in China, none of them provide a full range of services.

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[Fiducia Management Consultants]

Taxation and Double Taxation Risks:

Investment promotion and protection agreements between China and other nations exist to protect their investors with internationally recognized standards.  The key elements for these types of agreements include:

  • Provisions for equal and non-discriminatory treatment of investors and their investments.
  • Compensations for expropriation.
  • Transfer of capital and returns.
  • Access to independent settlement of disputes.

Governments of most developed countries show their commitment to fair treatment for investors through their membership of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), European Union and/or European Economic Area; therefore there is no need for ...

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