Describe and explain the Demographic Transitional model (D.T) phases. Critically examine the claim that the D.T theory is of limited use when studying the population change in the developing world.

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Rhodri Waters 12D

Describe and explain the Demographic Transitional model (D.T) phases.  Critically examine the claim that the D.T theory is of limited use when studying the population change in the developing world.

        The Demographic Transitional model or D.T describes the pattern of population growth that a country goes through to develop.  The population of countries changes over four stages of the demographic Transitional model.  The D. model is split into four stages.  Stage 1 is known as high fluctuating, stage 2 is known as early expanding.  Stage 3 is known as late expanding and stage 4 is known as low fluctuating.  Stage 5 has been added recently to show the population decline in some More Economically Developed Counties (MEDC’s) such as Germany and Switzerland.

Stage one of the D.T model is known as high fluctuating.  This is because the high birth rates and death rates fluctuate at a high level (about 35 per 1000), which cancel each other.  By this the population remains stable and low.  Birth rates are high because:

        No birth control or family planning.

        So many children die in infancy that parents tend to produce more in the hope that several will live

        Many children are needed to work on the land.

        Children are regarded as a sign of virility.

        Religious believes (e.g. Roman Catholics, Muslims and Hindus) encourage large families.

High death rates, especially among children are due to:

        Disease and plague (bubonic and cholera).

Such countries as Ethiopia, Bangladesh is at this stage in time (UK pre-1760)

Stage two of the D.T model is known as early expanding (the beginning of the industrial revolution).  This is due to the fact that death rates decreased rapidly to about 20 per 1000 of the population, where as the birth rate remains at a high level.  This gives a marginal growth in population.  

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The fall in death rates results from:

        Improved medical care such as vaccinations, hospitals, doctors, new drugs and scientific inventions.

        Improved sanitation and water supply.

        Improvements in food production, both quality and quantity.

        Improved transport to move food and doctors etc.

        A decrease in child mortality.

        Improved hygiene and better quality of housing.

Such countries as Peru, Sri Lanka and Kenya are at this stage in time (UK 1760-1880).

Stage three of the D.T model is known as the late expanding period when the industrial revolution is near completion and the country is almost industrialised. ...

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