In December's tsunami in the Indian Ocean, an estimated 250,000-300,000 people were killed or are still missing, while millions of lives have been upturned, socially and economically, by its impact. A main reason for the huge death

 However there was one informed prediction at this time “ Professor John McCloskey and his colleagues  at the University or Ulster predicted that the damage to the earths crust would trigger the 8.7 magnitude earthquake that struck off the coast of Sumatra.  The prediction came in a letter to ‘Nature’ published two weeks before the earthquake happened.  In the light of the preliminary data on the magnitude 8.7 quake, Professor McCloskey was reported as saying that “it looks like one of our concerns has been realized. We’ll have to wait to see how bad the outcome is”.  With his colleagues he calculated that the December earthquake ad significantly boosted seismic stresses and increased the risk of another large earthquake on the devastated Indonesia island of Sumatra.  In their paper Professor McCloskey and colleagues said that ‘our results indicate unambiguously that there is a real danger of another earthquake in the region.  It is vital that disaster fatigue does not delay the implementation of the Indian Ocean Tsunami warning system.’”

As we know tsunamis are very hard to predict due to them resulting from earthquakes.  If the earthquakes are predicted however, there is greater chance of a good prediction.  At the start of there lives, tsunamis move very quickly lying low to the sea bed, making it difficult for radars to pick up.  Ships and boats have been untouched by tsunamis as they glide silently underneath them.  These hazards only become visible as the water becomes shallower as the land approaches.  This is what causes the tidal wave, to rise and crash onto the shore.  This is what makes prediction so hard.  

In September 1998, hurricane Georges crossed the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Florida keys and then hit the southern state of Mississippi east of New Orleans.  The death toll in the Dominican  was estimated to be over 500, in Haiti it was over 100 yet in the US only 4 people were killed.  The only difference in the events was that the US had predicted the route and velocity of the hurricane.  Hurricanes are easy to predict, due to hurricane seasons , this is when hurricanes can come inland due to pressure.  Hurricanes can easily be picked up on satellites, triggering off early warning systems.  With Hurricanes easy to spot and see death tolls can greatly be reduced as people can have prior warning.  

Volcanoes such as Mount Saint Helens in Washington USA, are easily predicted, due to there being visible volcanic activity.   Minor eruptions of ash could be seen from the volcano, signaling a volcano could be on the way 28 days before the volcano finally erupted.  This meant that scientist and experts had plenty of time to examine and predict when exactly the volcano would finally erupt.  During these 28 days, there were minor eruptions and a crater formed near the summit, suggesting that there was in fact going to be an eruption.  Over the course of this month the northern face expanded and swelled out, presumably because magma was being forced up the cone.  

Due to this advanced warning, many people had their lives saved, along with property and the natural environment, this was all down to the fact that volcanoes often themselves give advanced warning signs before they blow up.

Because the U.S.A has been exposed to so many hurricanes, research needed to be done in order  to enhance warning systems and help to reduce economic cost as well as trying to keep death tolls to a minimum.  The U.S.A have spent billions of dollars on such research, inevitably making hurricanes easier to predict.  If Hurricanes didn’t affect the U.S.A or with as much frequency then less research would have been done as there would not have been such a great demand.  

Due to the extent of the problem government officials like the lady below are striving for improvements in hazard prediction of earthquakes.

A senior American scientist has called on natural disaster experts to work towards predicting extreme events such as earthquakes and floods.  Forecasting when and where such events might occur has largely been dismissed as an impossible goal, but Charles Groat, director of the US Geological Survey, said prediction was not only possible but essential.

 Professor Charles Groat issued his challenge to earth scientists at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in San Francisco. He called for urgent research on developing better monitoring and sensor technologies, to predict the exact time and location of natural hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and hurricanes.

Prediction of hazards is often closely related to location and potential economic damage.  For example there as been little research into what causes avalanches and few devices able of calculating when avalanches are going to happen.  This is for the simple reason that very few people are affected by such hazards, so the need for sufficient research and prediction is not high.

Hazards in LEDC countries such as the flooding in Bangladesh although can be predicted quite well due to seasonal rainfall and a build up of pressure can not be researched fully due to Bangladeshis poor economic status.  As no money is available to them for research and prediction, none can be obtained, meaning that the problem will constantly persist.

In conclusion I would say that, yes some hazards are easier to predict then others, due to substantial research being done in some areas, such as hurricanes.  Other hazards such as volcanoes can be seen prior to the event, so can also easily be predicted that an eruption will be eminent.    As yet prediction is not good enough to predict some hazards such as earthquakes, making them hard to predict, perhaps only giving moments warning, if any at all.