Malthusian Theory

Thomas Malthus, a British demographer, was renowned for his predictions based on world population and food supply. He believed that the worlds population would overrun the ability for them to support themselves. In short, the argument was that too many people and not enough food would cause a crisis. He thought that human population would be regulated by disease, famine, and war. His views were published in 1798. The basis of his theory is in two parts: 1) that population increases exponentially and 2) that food supply increases at an arithmetic rate. Malthus showed that with any increase in population, the population would exceed food supply. (fig.1)

Malthus suggested two possible ways to limit further population growth: positive and negative checks. The positive checks were reducing the population through famine, disease, and war. This would have the effect of increasing the mortality rate and reducing the life expectancy. The negative checks included abstinence from marriage, which would lower the fertility rate.

Malthusian theory proves to be very interesting. They create many questions as well and provide a possible warning for the future. As the world population is increasing, it is important that we know where our future is going. The future of our world and the things living in it are things that we need to know. By knowing how the choices made now will affect the future of our planet, we can make better choices. For this reason, many people are researching this. There are of course many different theories on this, which makes people all the more interested and ...

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Malthus was correct in many of the aspects he explored. As countries grow and become wealthier, they demand more food. Yet human population cannot grow beyond food production. This would cause many people to starve and so, would bring down the population to the carrying capacity of the environment. However, keeping within the carrying capacity, the quality of life would increase and by doing so, literacy rates and health standards would increase.

Malthus was also wrong in many of his theories. He never accounted for the role of technology. New technology has changed the way we produce food and resources. Scientific improvements have greatly increased productivity and fertilizers help increase yields. (fig. 2)

The graph shows the effect of technological ability to produce food and resources. Due to overlooking advances in technology, many of his predictions were wrong. Human population growth has not stopped, yet there is enough food for all (although not evenly distributed). With the natural increase, the expanding population is a resource, not a burden as he said. A larger population does also not mean more poverty. It is also difficult to apply his theories as one must look at specific areas. This is due to the fact that many nations are in different developmental stages. We can use the demographic transition model to illustrate this (fig. 3). Many of the less developed countries are in the earlier stages. They typically have high fertility and mortality rates, and poverty, disease and famine are common. With technology and assistance, these countries reduce the disease and famine, and usually the countries become wealthier. Disease and famine are becoming less common overall due to the vaccines and cures we now have. As a result, people live longer. With countries being in different parts of their development, it becomes harder to draw large conclusions.

The real problem is really whether or not technology can keep ahead of population growth. Technology has helped many people, but in the long term it is not very clear whether it has really harmed us. Although there are cures for diseases and vaccines, this means that less people are dying. People are living longer and dying less, causing population growth. Furthermore, the carrying capacity of an environment can already be surpassed through new technology and trade. The main thing to keep in mind is that, although some things can be shifted between areas (such as food), there must be a final limit we can reach with our resources. Theoretically, if people take what they need, there is more than enough to sustain the current population. There are many people who have more than their share of food or other resources that others could use.

Malthusian theory are very much applicable to the world today. Even if not entirely correct, they are revolutionary and make us think more about where were are going and how we are going to end up. His theories have been reinvented and revised, proving that they are of use to us.